Via Last Word on Pro Football, by Jonathan Barnett
Green Bay Packers linebacker Clay Matthews has missed four of 11 games this year, providing a chance to examine his value to the team. There are a few things we will be looking at regarding his value: wins and losses, statistical changes when he is out of the lineup and how others step up without him.
Evaluating Clay Matthews’ Value to the Green Bay Packers
Wins and Losses Without Clay Matthews
With Clay Matthews in the lineup, the Packers are 4-3 which includes road wins against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Philadelphia Eagles. Two losses on the road to the Minnesota Vikings and Washington Redskins are rounded out with a loss to the Dallas Cowboys at home. When Matthews is not in the lineup, the Packers are a mere 1-3. The three losses where the three straight losses to start the recent four game stretch. The sole win without Matthews on the field was the Week three victory over the Lions at Lambeau Field.
Breaking it down by home and away games, the Packers are 1-1 at home and 0-2 on the road without Matthews this season. In the games where Matthews has played, the Packers are 2-1 at home and 2-2 on the road.
Now this is a nice first step in looking at the final results, but there are any number of other variables involved in a win-loss segment that make these stats too cursory to tell a full story.
Team Statistics Without Clay Matthews
This initial look at statistics will examine how the overall team statistics are affected by Matthews presence and absence. We start by comparing opponents’ performances against the Packers against their average yards over the course of the season.
In the seven games where Matthews lined up for the Packers there were three games in which the Packers gave up more passing yards than their opponents normally acquired. Two of those games were the first two games (Minnesota and Jacksonville on the road). On average over the course of the seven games, the Packers gave up 13.74 yards per game which is below their opponents’ average during the games where Matthews played. With Matthews sitting the Packers only kept a team below their season average once. In those four games the Packers gave up an average of 39.35 yards more a game than their opponents’ average. The Packers were clearly worse on pass defense in terms of total yards over these four games.
It was not that the Packers faced all their tough opponents without Matthews either. While Matthews started, the Packers faced three of the six top ranked offenses as ranked using the Offensive DVOA (Dallas, Atlanta Falcons and Washington). The best they faced without Matthews the seventh ranked Tennessee Titans.
When it comes to run defense, the Packers defense didn’t suffer much without Matthews. With Matthews they gave up an average of 13.74 yards fewer than their opponents’ average and without him they gave up and average of 11.77 yards fewer than their opponents’ average. With Matthews playing, only Washington and Dallas managed to outdo their season averages. Without Matthews only Tennessee managed that feat.
One other key statistic, the one that has defined Matthews career, is noticeably better with Matthews. Over the seven games he started, the Packers had 20 sacks. That is good for an average of 2.86 sacks a game. Without Matthews the Packers have eight sacks over four games. That is a mere two sacks per game. This makes the Packers nearly a sack a game better with Matthews.
What Happens to Other Players
The single player who has been asked to pick up the slack has been outside linebacker Nick Perry who leads the Packers with eight sacks. The next best is Julius Peppers with 5.5. When Matthews is playing, Perry has 5.5 sacks, but only has 2.5 without him. This number is skewed by the two sacks Perry had against the Lions in Week two. Perry only had three games without a sack, two of those came in games without Matthews. With Matthews Perry averages 0.78 sacks a game (that would be good for a 12.5 sack season). Perry averages just 0.625 sacks a game without Matthews (and again, that is skewed by Perry’s best game of the year).
Julius Peppers has also seen a statistical boost with Matthews on the field. As stated above, Peppers has 5.5 sacks. Of those, 4.5 came in the seven games shared with Matthews. That is good for an average of 0.64 sacks per game (which would be a double digit sack season if extrapolated over a full season). Peppers has just one sack in games without Matthews. One can easily explain this by pointing out that Peppers usually gets to pick his spots within games, but without Matthews he is forced to play in more downs.
Conclusion
Matthews makes the Packers defense better and the team would clearly suffer without him. The Packers also cannot count on the improvement of Nick Perry or the aging Julius Peppers to save them. Matthews, the second highest paid player on the team, has a cap number of $13.75 million this year. That number goes up to $15.2 million next year before dipping down to $11.4 in 2018. The biggest question is always not just whether someone is valuable, but worth the money. Matthews still gives the Packers something irreplaceable on the edge. The Packers just need to find a way to keep Matthews on the field.
