From Last Word on College Football, Andrew Miller
Expansion of the Big 12 has been one of the biggest story lines in college sports over the last few months. The conference currently has 10 teams, and is looking to add either two or four teams. However, adding two would be the more likely scenario. There are still some huge college football programs in the Big 12. If the conference did break apart, the chaos of conference realignment would be back in a big way. Now let’s take a look at where every Big 12 team would go if the conference disbanded.
Where Every Big 12 Team Would Go If the Conference Disbanded
A Few Things to Keep in Mind
These are just hypothetical scenarios based on geographical location, height of the athletic program, and predicted relations with other conferences. At this point, it seems like Big 12 expansion is almost as likely as the conference disbanding. According to SB Nation, football-only expansion is also a likely scenario for the Big 12. Furthermore, just because these 10 teams are in a power conference right now, there are some teams that would be likely to go to a Group of Five conference.
Where Each Team Would Go
1. Oklahoma
The Sooners would arguably be the most valuable team in the Big 12 for any other conference to add. The most viable contenders to pick up the Sooners would most likely be the PAC-12 or the SEC. The PAC-12 would not be able to offer a geographic rival for Oklahoma, but the west coast offensive style would fit best schematically. However, the SEC would be able to offer geographic rivals in Arkansas, Missouri, and Texas A&M. Going to the SEC would also reignite former Big 12 rivalries with Missouri and Texas A&M. Plus, the SEC would love to add a blue blood program and athletic powerhouse like Oklahoma.
Verdict: SEC
2. Texas
According to Forbes, the Longhorns are the most valuable team in college football, valued at $129 million. However, they do have the “costliest college football network in the country“. They signed a deal with ESPN in 2011, for a 20 year, $295 million contract. It’s hard to believe that most conferences would like to deal with a situation like that. Texas has also fallen to hard times with their football program. The 2015 season saw the Longhorns achieve a 5-7 record for the second time in five years. They haven’t done much better in men’s basketball either. The SEC and PAC-12 would probably be the most viable options as far as conferences go. Joining the SEC would also reignite the rivalry with Texas A&M, which would be great for college football. However, it seems like going independent would be the most likely scenario at this point.
Verdict: Independent
3. Kansas
No conference would be adding the Jayhawks because of their football program. Kansas would add value to a power conference in the same way that Kentucky is valuable to the SEC. The Jayhawks are one of the elite men’s basketball programs in the country. The best options would be the SEC and Big 10. Going to the SEC would be able to reignite the rivalry with Missouri that hasn’t taken part since 2011. However, going to the Big 10 would bring back their old Big 12 rivalry with Nebraska. Considering how much success the Big 10 is having with football right now, they could use another good basketball school.
Verdict: Big 10
4. Kansas State
The Wildcats don’t offer as much significant value in any area to the level that Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas would to other conferences. Yet, they have been a consistent football program under Bill Snyder, and they at least hold their own in basketball. Much like Kansas, the most viable options for Kansas State would be the SEC and Big 10. It does seem like Kansas and Kansas State would come as a package deal to whatever conference adds them.
Verdict: Big 10
5. West Virginia
The Mountaineers time in the Big 12 would be short lived if the conference breaks apart. Since joining the conference in 2012, West Virginia has enjoyed only moderate success in football. They also don’t have a geographic rival in the conference. Geographically the ACC makes the most sense. The Big 10 could also be a possibility, with likely conference rivals like Maryland, Rutgers, and Ohio State. However, the ACC could add West Virginia and one more team after that and become a well-rounded 16-team conference. The Mountaineers would mesh very well with the level of basketball competition in the ACC.
Verdict: ACC
6. Iowa State
The Cyclones seem like the oddball of the Big 12. They haven’t enjoyed much football success since joining the conference, and have no geographic rivals in the conference. The Big 10 would make sense geographically. In-state rivals Iowa and Iowa State would be able to become conference rivals. However, if the Big 10 adds Kansas and Kansas State, they probably would not be looking to expand any further. The next best option would probably be for them to drop to the Group of Five. The AAC and MAC would make the most sense geographically, but the AAC is known to have a higher level of competition athletically.
Verdict: AAC
7. Baylor
The Bears are a public relations nightmare right now. After the sexual assault scandal that plagued the football program during the off-season, their future does not look too bright. The football and basketball programs have been very competitive over the last five years, but that might not last much longer. It’s hard to think any Power Five conference would be willing to add them right now. However, they could add a big boost to most Group of Five conferences. They could go to the AAC and still have in-state rivals like Houston and SMU.
Verdict: AAC
8. Texas Tech
The Red Raiders have one of the highest scoring offenses in the country. They would mesh very well with west coast offense like Cal, Oregon, and Washington State. There aren’t too many Power Five conferences that would make sense for Texas Tech. Joining the PAC-12 would let them reignite a former Big 12 rivalry with Colorado. The PAC-12 does not have too many basketball powerhouses, so Texas Tech would not have to invest extra into what is a pretty mediocre program they have. The Red Raiders also offer a significant amount of value in baseball.
Verdict: PAC-12
9. TCU
The Horned Frogs have been one of the best football programs in the country over the last decade. They offer an athletic department that is very much on the rise. And similar to Texas Tech, they offer significant value in both football and baseball. It would be a nice package deal for any conference to be able to add both TCU and Texas Tech.
Verdict: PAC-12
10. Oklahoma State
The Cowboys have one of the most well-funded athletic departments in the country. Alumnus T. Boone Pickens has donated over $500 million to improve the athletic program. They offer a competitive football program and a good traditional basketball program. If Oklahoma goes to the SEC and Texas stays independent, that would most likely leave Oklahoma and Oklahoma State as a package deal. The most viable options would be the Big 10, SEC, and PAC-12. However, if Oklahoma goes to the SEC, then the Cowboys would most likely follow suit.
Verdict: SEC
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