Stats show Malcolm Marx as Springbok starter
Adriaan Strauss or Malcolm Marx? That question is bound be a prominent story arc in Allister Coetzee’s nightmares. For years, a notably in-form Bismarck du Plessis warmed the bench while John Smit led the Springboks. Whilst this was evident to many, it was mostly overlooked because Smit was an incredible leader and captain. He knew how to motivate and drive his players, his referee management was second only to Richie McCaw and he took to a press conference with the ease and confidence of a Kardashian selfie.
But can Coetzee really compare Adriaan Strauss to John Smit? I don’t think even he could spin that story believably. Warren Whitely is now guaranteed maximum game time with Duane Vermuelen sustaining a knee injury whilst at Toulon. This would put an end to Coetzee’s concerns over selecting captain that won’t start every game.
Strauss vs Marx by the numbers
With a clear and reliable captaincy option open to the Springbok coach, surely he has no option but select his hooker based on form and form alone.
The form comparison is based on the stats* from the 2016 Super Rugby Season as well as the 2016 International Tests against Ireland.
Strauss played 16 games for a total of 1263 minutes whilst Marx played 14 games for 759 minutes. Because Strauss has played more games and minutes than Marx we use an aggregator to assess their performance per minute.
Ball in hand
Carries
Strauss carried the ball 99 times for an average of one carry every 13 minutes.
Marx carried the ball 66 times for an average of one carry every 4 minutes.
Winner: Malcolm Marx
Clean Breaks
Strauss made 2 clean breaks, for an average of one clean break every 631 minutes (7.8 games). 2% clean break conversion.
Marx made 14 clean breaks, for an average of one clean break every 54 minutes. 21% clean break conversion.
Winner: Malcolm Marx
Defenders Beaten
Strauss beat 4 defenders at an average of one defender beaten every 315 minutes (3.9 games).
Marx beat 18 defenders at an average of one defender beaten every 42 minutes.
Winner: Malcom Marx
Meters Run
Strauss ran for a total of 133 meters at an average one meter every 9 minutes with an average 1.3m per carry. This equates to 9 meters gained per game with ball in hand.
Marx ran for a total of 412 meters at an average of one meter every 2 minutes with an average of 6.2m per carry. This equates to 44 meters gained per game with ball in hand.
Winner: Malcolm Marx
Off Loads
Strauss managed 7 off-loads this season at an average of 180 minutes for every offload giving him a conversion of 7% per carry.
Marx completed 4 off-loads in his 14 games at average of 189 minutes for every offload giving him a conversion of 6% per carry.
Winner: Adriaan Strauss
Passing
Strauss passed the ball 77 times at an average of one pass every 16 minutes.
Marx passed the ball 23 times at an average of one pass every 33 minutes.
This is a difficult stat to infer performance from without looking at some context. How much do you want your hooker to pass? Many pundits criticised Juan Smith for not passing and rather taking contact. Former Springbok coach and Supersport commentator Nick Mallet weighed in on the issue.
Mallet asked why Smith would pass if a tackle situation was a foregone conclusion? What would the point be in having a burly number seven pass the ball to his wing so that he can take it into contact? It makes more sense for Smith to ride the tackle and try for an offload or secure a quick ball for the next phase, as opposed to a winger who may be turned or held up.
So who is Strauss passing to every 16 minutes instead of taking the contact? If he is in a position to pass the ball to a player in space, why is he there in the first place? From the stats he is clearly not going to break the line or beat a defender, and the opposition know this. He is just as unlikely to draw much attention away from his support players to create space by manipulating the defence.
Winner: Malcolm Marx
Defense
Turnovers Won
Strauss turned the ball over 13 times at an average of one turnover every 97 minutes (1.2 games)
Marx turned the ball over 11 times at an average of one turnover every 69 minutes
Winner: Malcolm Marx
Penalties Conceded
Strauss conceded 16 penalties at an average of one penalty every 79 minutes. This equates to 1.2 penalties conceded per turn over won.
Marx conceded one penalty at an average of one penalty every 759 minutes (9.5 games). This equates to 0.09 penalties conceded per turnover won.
Winner: Malcolm Marx
Tackles Made
Strauss made 67 tackles for an average of one tackle every 19 minutes (4 tackles a game)
Marx made 76 tackles for an average of one tackle every 10 minutes (8 tackles a game)
Winner: Malcolm Marx
Tackle Completion %
Strauss missed 5 tackles which gives him a tackle completion percentage of 93%
Marx missed 7 tackles which gives him a tackle completion percentage of 91%
Winner: Adriaan Strauss
Handling Errors
Strauss made 13 handling errors at an average of one error every 97 minutes (1.2 games)
Marx made 5 handling errors at an average of one error every 152 minutes (1.9 games)
Winner: Malcolm Marx
Line-out Accuracy
This is a tough one to gauge as there are a two factors that contribute towards linnet success; the accuracy of the throw and the timing of the jump.
Strauss Line-out Accuracy is 90.7%
Marx line-out accuracy is 88.7%
Winner: Adriaan Strauss
The Statistical Verdict
Without a doubt stats don’t tell the full story. However, you have to work with the information you have. Coetzee has hinted at the discussion over the hooker position that first phase possession will be key and that set piece will account for his selection. You can see where he is going with this.
One cannot argue with that logic, set pieces are crucial at international level. However, when you look to play a more expansive game, you have to field dynamic players that area able to take advantage of space, particularly on the counter attack.
Marx is exponentially more effective at the counter attack. He turns over more ball, which is the most dangerous of all counter attack positions. He is a better player with ball in hand and offers a great linking opportunity in the channels close to the breakdown.
Strauss is marginally stronger at the set piece than Marx based on the numbers, but Strauss gives away more penalties and thus created first phase set piece for the opposition more frequently than Marx.
Leadership
There are no statistics to back this one up, leadership is an overarching quality that cannot be broken down into a score. But Malcolm Marx is not competing for the captaincy role, Warren Whitely is.
The last question should really focus around how much more suitable Strauss is as captain than Whitely.
Strauss struggled to rally his troops in the first and second tests against Ireland. He completely vanished in the Newlands defeat, to the point that it wouldn’t have surprised me to see him on the side of a milk carton. He failed to lead the Freestate Cheetahs to success of any sort in the Super Rugby competition, and he hasn’t shown the leadership qualities at the Blue Bulls that would prove him as the captain for one of the greatest and most iconic rugby teams in history.
Warren Whitley may be short on international experience but he has the chops to leads the Boks. He is at the centre of the revival at the Golden Lions, and inspirational leader that understands the power of culture. Small things like the lions clearing their own area after each game is reminiscent of the All Black culture, and the impact on the field shows.
If you really want to rebuild Springbok Rugby and move forward to compete against the All Blacks you will be hard pressed to find any logical and sensible argument against selecting Warren Whitley as Springbok captain.
Clear as day, Marx must start
Its clear as day light that Malcolm Marx is the correct choice for the number two jumper when the Springboks start their Rugby Championship campaign. Only ignorance or pride would prevent any coach who wants to win from starting with the dynamic Lions hooker when the Springboks face Argentina.
But that would require boldness, vision and logic, all of which have long since faded from the South African rugby landscape.
*statistics sourced at www.vodacomrugby.com and www.nzherald.co.nz
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