Just win baby? More like bring the hype baby! The Oakland Raiders have without a doubt the most talented roster they’ve had since the 2002 season which ultimately ended in a Super Bowl loss. But how much is that really saying? The Raiders have endured thirteen non-winning seasons since the end of that 2002 season. Quality NFL talent has been lacking. Sure, they’ve got a legit Defensive Player of the Year candidate in Khalil Mack, a very promising quarterback in Derek Carr and a receiver named Amari Cooper who is ready to make defensive backs look silly. They also have possibly the best offensive line in football. But let’s look at why the Raiders will not make the playoffs in 2016.
Why the Oakland Raiders Won’t Make the Playoffs in 2016
The Schedule
The first eight weeks of the season are exactly murderer’s row but week one in New Orleans should provide an early season test for that highly touted revamped defense. The Saints aren’t as unstoppable at home as they’ve been in the past but Drew Brees is still Drew Brees and while the Saints’ defensive struggles have been well documented, their offense is still very capable of putting up points like nobody’s business. The Raiders then play Atlanta at home, and then travel to Tennessee and Baltimore. Again, all winnable games, but the margin for error is razor thin when you look at the schedule weeks 9-17. An overlooked two-game set is the back-to-back Florida games. At Jacksonville and at Tampa Bay present two unique challenges with potential dark horse playoff squads.
The Tough Stretch
Week nine is primetime Sunday Night Football against none other than the defending Super Bowl champs, the Denver Broncos. Is Mark Sanchez, Aaron Rodgers? No, but Von Miller is Von Miller and that defense still looks to be a top 5 unit, that could make Derek Carr’s first trip to real prime time football one to forget. The Raiders luck out with a week 10 bye but then travel to Mexico for a “home” game in another prime time bout with an upward trending Houston Texans team. DeAndre Hopkins can take the roof off any defense and Lamar Miller, who was grossly underutilized by the Dolphins, can rack up big time yards and touchdowns when given the opportunity.
Then it’s back to Oakland for a game against the Carolina Panthers, yikes, and the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are not so scary but the short week where the Raiders must travel to Kansas City for a Thursday night game is nothing short of terrifying. Oh, and the fact that the Raiders play three out of the last four games on the road, that’s pretty scary too. And all three of those games are divisional rivalry games. Getting a little hot in here Raider fans? Don’t worry at least week 16 that Raider squad hosts the Indianapolis Colts who will also likely be playing for a playoff spot. And despite last season’s lackluster quarterback play, make no mistake Andrew Luck is good. Damn good. And by the way, the club finished 8-8 without its stud signal caller.
Talented roster, franchise quarterback? Yep, the Raiders got that. A season-ending stretch from hell? Yeah, they got that too. At least they got a great coaching staff to guide them right? Well, let’s see.
Coaching Staff
What exactly has the Raiders coaching staff accomplished in their careers? Hometown hero Jack Del Rio is 75-80 in his career and Ken Norton’s defense finished 22nd in points allowed (24.9) and 22nd in total yards allowed (363.6). But hey, at least he’s consistent. And offensively? From week 10-17 the Raiders scored more than 20 points twice and scored 17 points or less three times. While the Raiders did have the most diverse offense in the NFL, offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave still has much to prove given the amount of talent the Raiders have in the offensive starting 11.
While injuries did play a roll into the Raiders’ second-half offensive slump Musgrave’s play calling has yet to inspire confidence. Despite the scheme diversity, Musgrave has had his fair share of baffling play calls and flat out predictability from a play calling perspective. He’s yet to truly win a football chess match against a quality defensive coordinator.
Defensive Scheme
While Musgrave must do a better job managing the game from an offensive standpoint and calling more effective plays, Ken Norton has his work cut out for him as well. Schematically the Raiders play mostly Cover-3 or Cover-1 press defense. They play very straight up with little to no disguise in coverage. They believe they can play any offense straight up and win. They’re wrong.
In today’s NFL, you need some creativity and slight of hand in your defense to prevent quarterbacks from picking them apart. With that said, if a defense has enough talent, it can afford to play straight up, rather than disguise their coverage and show exotic looks. It’s on Ken Norton and defensive head coach Jack Del Rio to properly use and coach up the talent on defense to let the players play fast and make plays. But if the defense loses any secondary members to injury, the Raiders coaching brass will have to show a little more creativity with their defense if they want to shut down quality offenses.
Inexperience
If the Raiders want to make the playoffs in 2016, their core players are going to have to grow up, and grow up fast. Yes, players like Reggie Nelson and Bruce Irvin come from winning teams, but the core of this team, Carr, Mack, and Cooper haven’t won at the professional level. Going 7-9 is not winning. This team, Carr, in particular, are going have to come up big, especially in the division. Against the Broncos and Chiefs, the Raiders went 1-3. Carr was particularly lackluster with a line of 90-149, 861 yards, 5.7 YPA, and a touchdown to interception ratio of 6:5. That’s not good.
What stands out the most is the paltry 5.7 yards per attempt and the touchdown to interception ratio. If this team is gonna make the playoffs, their franchise quarterback is going to have to take care of the ball while still making plays down the field. Tall order? Yes, but there’s a reason only the best teams make it to the big dance.
How will this team play when the lights are shining and losing a hard fought game late in the season means you’re watching the playoffs from home. The Raiders 2015 season was plagued with hard fought losses. A moral win means nothing come the 2016 season. The Raiders will face pressure not only from opposing teams but also from the fan base and the media in the bay area starving for a playoff berth. How will this team react when facing this pressure? Expectations are high for this young team and anything short of 10-11 wins and a playoff birth will be considered a failure.
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