As teams around the NFL enter training camp and the 2016 season gets rolling; excitement is buzzing around every practice field and fan base in the league. Dreams, goals, and expectations are on the minds of every player, coach, and executive. Along with it is the hopeful, yet deceiving presence of optimism. Especially in the AFC West, where three of the division’s teams have realistic chances to make the postseason. The fourth team still has the division’s best quarterback under center. Given these team’s current situations in the early stages of the 2016 season, let’s take a look at how far each team could go, and how far each team could fall.
2016 AFC West Best/Worst Case Scenarios
Denver Broncos
Best Case
Peyton Manning channels his inner Brett Favre and returns to the Denver Broncos to lead the team to their second consecutive Lombardi Trophy. That’s only a joke of course, but unfortunately for John Elway and the Broncos faithful, Manning returning may be the only way the 2016 Broncos reach the pedestal the franchise found themselves on the year prior.
In reality, there’s an apparent ceiling to this team, and that ceiling is not Houston in February. After the departure of Brock Osweiler this off-season, the ideal situation in Denver this season is Mark Sanchez stepping in as an average, replacement-level quarterback. That could give the still dominant Broncos defense an opportunity to lead the team to a 10-win season and another playoff appearance.
In addition to this, Elway wouldn’t mind seeing his new $114 million-dollar man Von Miller back up his historic contract with a highly productive season and be the face of the defense that brings Denver playoff football for its sixth consecutive year.
Worst Case
The Broncos become the 16th team to miss the playoffs after winning a Super Bowl. Quarterback Mark Sanchez’s stint as Broncos starter fails to erase America’s memory of his infamous butt fumble. This would ultimately result in an average season. It would also raise concerns about the organization falling into a middling ground of mediocrity.
Despite the defense’s elite talent level, the weakness of a below-average quarterback is often too difficult to mask. Such a situation could force the organization’s hand into starting rookie first-rounder Paxton Lynch. Though recent successes of rookies such as the Colts’ Andrew Luck, the Seahawks’ Russell Wilson; as well former Washington quarterback Robert Griffin III in leading their team to the postseason gives reason for optimism, more often than not a team who is starting a rookie quarterback is not in the playoff conversation.
For a team coming off a Super Bowl victory, a seven or eight win season would be a quick fall. It would take them back to the reality of every other NFL team with several quality pieces, but no franchise signal caller.
Kansas City Chiefs
Best Case
A transitioning Denver offense takes a backseat to the Chiefs as Andy Reid uses the momentum from the team’s 2015 campaign, which saw the Kansas City Chiefs win 11 games in a row, to reclaim the division crown. The experienced and veteran leadership on the Kansas City roster keeps them a step above the young and rising Oakland Raiders in the West. This allows them to enter the postseason with newfound confidence. They also earn at least one guaranteed home playoff game in Arrowhead Stadium. After a competitive and respectable performance against the then-defending champion New England Patriots in the AFC Divisional Round last year; the Chiefs have the opportunity to break through and become a legitimate championship contender.
Question marks surround Alex Smith’s capabilities to elevate Kansas City into the NFL’s elite, but the return of Jamaal Charles adds another weapon to Smith’s arsenal, which still includes Travis Kelce and Jeremy Maclin. Regardless, the heart of the team will remain on the defensive side. The combination of a healthy return for Justin Houston, a positive end to the Eric Berry holdout, and the follow-up to a dazzling rookie season for Marcus Peters keeps the Kansas City defense among the league’s best.
For a team that has had stability and success under Andy Reid, the next step is surely to ascend to that next level. And for now, there are plenty of reasons for the Chiefs to at least be in the conversation of contending come playoff time.
Worst Case
The Chiefs franchise begins to plateau. It becomes apparent that a wild-card berth and competing (but still losing) in the playoffs is the best the roster can muster. After another year of hoping for Alex Smith to take the next step, Kansas City is rewarded with another year of reassurance that he’s exactly who most fans have thought he is. He is an above-average game manager who can be highly efficient and reliable at times, but can’t help his team break through in the playoffs. An aging Jamaal Charles returns from injury, but doesn’t have the same explosiveness and playmaking ability. As Charles reaches the foreboding age of 30 in December, Kansas City finds themselves not fighting to win a division title. Instead they are fighting to remain in the playoff picture.
The defense will keep the Chiefs competitive no matter the struggles that plague their offense. But with Justin Houston working his way back to one hundred percent and the loss of Sean Smith in the secondary, the Oakland Raiders and defending world champion Denver Broncos are given the opportunity to bury Kansas City in the AFC West standings.
Oakland Raiders
Best Case
The 13-year playoff drought comes to a shrieking halt for the Oakland Raiders, as Jack Del Rio leads the silver and black to not only their first playoff appearance in nearly a decade and a half, but to its first division title in as many years. The infusion of veteran talent around the rising talent of Derek Carr, Amari Cooper, and Khalil Mack sparks the team to not only overcome defending divisional and world champion Denver, but to leapfrog their rivals from Kansas City as well.
The revamped offensive line proves that they are the real deal after all of the off-season hype, as the addition of Kelechi Osemele allows the team to dominate the line of scrimmage week after week. The redesigned defense marks the cultural return of physicality to the franchise, with Bruce Irvin’s arrival in Oakland freeing up Mack to reach his potential and firmly plant himself among the league’s most elite players.
A meteoric rise to the top of the AFC and the NFL as a whole is unlikely. The Raiders have an abundance of youth and lack postseason experience. If the talent on the roster meshes and builds chemistry throughout the year; it’s easy to see the organization returning to the post-season and being competitive while there.
Worst Case
The title of “off-season champions” does little for the Raiders come the regular season, as the multitude of additions struggle to fit together like the well-oiled machine that Reggie McKenzie and Del Rio envisioned. The pure talent of the team keeps them relevant and in contention throughout the majority of the season. However, the weight of expectations and lack of chemistry inhibits the team from taking the leap forward that the organization and its loyal fan base so desperately wanted.
Derek Carr’s progression as a young quarterback slips, and the concerns over Amari Cooper’s dropping passes sticks around throughout the wideout’s sophomore season. The additions to the defense form a more talented unit on that side of the ball, but the question marks surrounding the middle linebacker position entering the season turns into a glaring weakness, and the aging Reggie Nelson, while able to help mentor rookie Karl Joseph, is unable to be the on-field example that he used to be.
With a fan base that’s desperate to taste the playoffs again, another second-rate season will be a letdown. At the very least, the team is shooting to end their streak of 13 straight seasons finishing at, or below, .500. But with sights on making the playoffs and having finally acquired the talent to get there; the pressure is higher in Oakland than it has been in a decade.
San Diego Chargers
Best Case
Philip Rivers gives the San Diego Chargers another herculean effort and carries the Chargers back to around a .500 record. The offense shows flashes of the team’s future potential, setting a stepping stone in the right direction for an organization hoping to capitalize on the final years of their franchise quarterback’s prime. Keenan Allen produces a complete season after missing half of 2015, firmly establishing himself as one of the league’s top receivers. The offensive line overcomes its catastrophic previous season and avoids the injury-bug, building much-needed chemistry.
The pairing of Melvin Ingram with San Diego’s first-round pick Joey Bosa gives Mike McCoy’s defense a legitimate pass rushing tandem. Jason Verrett stays healthy in the secondary, inserting himself into the discussion of top cornerbacks in the league. As a whole, the defense over-performs and allows Rivers and the offense to flip the script from 2015. The Chargers turn many of last year’s narrow defeats into victories.
Given the team’s fall to the bottom of the NFL and the top-to-bottom talent in the AFC West; it would be one of the greatest stories of 2016 if the Chargers were able to overcome previous deficiencies to contend for a playoff spot. In reality, that doesn’t seem likely. But that’s not to say San Diego couldn’t enjoy a successful year with six or seven wins. They need to see some positive signs for the seasons to come.
Worst Case
The mess of an offensive line from last year becomes the most committed aspect of the Chargers franchise to San Diego. They do little to prove they deserve to be rated as anything higher than the worst line in the league. The team’s disadvantage in the trenches severely limits Rivers and the offense. The lack of protection keeps the team from making any progress from their disappointing 2015.
Bosa produces a solid rookie campaign, but fails to make a significant impact right away. He does not become a difference maker in the Chargers defense. The loss of safety Eric Weddle proves to be more substantial than the team hoped. Verrett fails to replace him and take the next step in his young career. The defense that enters the season with a multitude of question marks is unable to impress. They simply can’t live up to the standard of the rest of the division. This leaves the Chargers in another mediocre season with glimpses of that deceiving optimism; but not the desired step forward in the rebuilding process.
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