There are many new faces in the AFC South this season. This has resulted in higher expectations than there have been in recent years. This could mean some major changes in the divisional pecking order. This article will delve into that a bit, and explain what the best and worst scenarios for each team in the division are in 2016.
AFC South Best/Worst Case Scenarios
Houston Texans
Best Case Scenario: The Texans made a big splash in free agency and made Brock Osweiler a very rich man. If the Texans assessment of Osweiler was correct and he is in fact a franchise quarterback, Houston could be one of the top teams in the AFC.
Newly-acquired running back Lamar Miller is a shifty playmaker and DeAndre Hopkins is one of the best wideouts in the game, so Osweiler has talent around him. It’s just a matter of how he handles being the unquestioned starter and how quickly he picks up a new offense.
The defense should be one of the best in league, as J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus are one of the best pass rushing duos in the NFL. That’s not to mention the ultra talented pass rusher, and former number one overall pick, Jadeveon Clowney, who could be in store for a breakout season if he stays healthy.
Worse Case Scenario: If Brock Osweiler can’t live up to the aforementioned pressure that he will be under this season, this year’s squad could be eerily similar to last season’s. That was the absolute epitome of mediocrity. If Osweiler doesn’t develop chemistry with Hopkins, it could be a very frustrating season for Houston fans. Osweiler isn’t the only one who could struggle getting acclimated, however, as Lamar Miller will also presumably be asked to take a larger role in Houston than he had in Miami. It may prove to be difficult for a guy who only averaged about 12 carries per game last season and rushed for 15 yards or fewer four times. There isn’t too much going wrong on the defensive side except for any key injuries or Clowney continuing to underwhelm.
Best Case Scenario Record: 11-5
Worst Case Scenario Record: 7-9
Indianapolis Colts
Best Case Scenario: The Colts season hinges on the play of their quarterback, as well. Andrew Luck will have much more on his plate, however, as he recently became the highest-paid player in the NFL. If Andrew Luck plays like he did in 2014, the sky is limit for the Colts. They have some talented pass catchers in receivers T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief, and a capable tight end in Dwayne Allen.
The defense is the big question mark. They have some good players like Vontae Davis and D’Qwell Jackson, but this group is getting older. If some of the aging veterans like Robert Mathis and Mike Adams can play at a high level for another year, the defense should be average, which should be more than enough for an Andrew Luck-led offense to go deep into the playoffs. Expect Luck to come out and set the league on fire after what was, in essence, a lost season in 2015.
Worst Case Scenario: Obviously, the worst thing that could happen to the Colts would be another injury riddled season for their franchise signal caller, but for this article, we will assume that Luck plays a full season. The concerns surrounding Andrew Luck’s season in 2015 were not all injury related. Luck was a turnover machine when he was on the field last year. He was also only 2-5 as a starter and was highly inconsistent. If these woes of yesteryear continue into this season, the Colts are not going to be very happy. This is especially true considering the massive contract. If the offense isn’t running smoothly, the defense is going to struggle more. The unit will be on the field more often and placed into more pressure situations. It is certainly not a recipe for success for Indianapolis in 2016.
Best Case Scenario record: 12-4
Worst Case Scenario record: 6-10
Jacksonville Jaguars
Best Case Scenario: It has been said for the last few months now, but Jacksonville won the off-season. However, they didn’t just throw money at every big name on the market; they had ample cap space and front loaded all of their contracts to assure they won’t be in a bind when they have to pay guys like Blake Bortles and Allen Robinson in a couple of years. The Jags also had a wildly successful draft, where they were able to secure arguably the top two defensive players in the entire draft, Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack. Last season, the Jaguars offense finally seemed to turn a corner, mainly due to the passing attack led by Bortles, Robinson and fellow receiver Allen Hurns.
If they are able to build on that success and integrate guys like tight end Julius Thomas and newly-acquired running back Chris Ivory into the offense, they could be a top ten unit. The defense is a bit of a question mark; they have a ton of talent, but very little experience. If the defense is able to mesh, Jacksonville could be find themselves in the thick of the playoff race this season.
Worst Case Scenario: The Jaguars won only five games last season, despite playing a pretty favorable schedule. They played all but two or three of those games pretty closely, but were unable to close out games. This is likely due to a lack of experience and leadership on either side of the ball. If the Jaguars are not able to overcome these issues, that could spell trouble in Duval County.
There are also concerns that Blake Bortles‘ success in 2015 was a bit of an anomaly as opposed to a true breakout season. If Bortles does regress in 2016, Jacksonville will struggle to win games. Another issue that could arise is on the defensive side of the ball. Ramsey, Jack, pass rusher Dante Fowler Jr. and other young players could struggle to get acclimated. The Jaguars could find themselves in too many shootouts, which is not going to help them win more games.
Best Case Scenario record: 10-6
Worst Case Scenario record: 5-11
Tennessee Titans
Best Case Scenario: Marcus Mariota had a very promising rookie season. He was a lot more pro-ready than previously assumed. He showed great poise in the pocket and remarkable accuracy for a rookie quarterback. He was under pressure often and made a ton of plays on the move. This led to Mariota getting injured and ultimately missing some games. If the Titans are able to provide better blocking and have some other playmakers, such as second-year receiver Dorial Green-Beckham, take on a bigger role, Mariota will continue to flourish in the system.
The running game should be significantly better with DeMarco Murray and rookie Derrick Henry, so that will take some pressure off of his shoulders as well. The defense was a lot better in 2015 than a lot of outsiders might think. If they can continue to play at a high level, they’ll be able to keep games close.
Worst Case Scenario: One thing the the Titans absolutely need to do in 2016, that they failed to do last season, is keep the franchise quarterback upright. The Titans chances of winning go down considerably without Mariota. They also need receivers to get open, as Mariota threw a lot of checkdowns to tight end Delanie Walker last season. While Walker is a fine player, he can’t be the only legitimate threat. If Green-Beckham and the other young receivers struggle for the Titans, they’ll become one-dimensional very quickly.
While the Titans run game should be better than last season, there are still a lot a question marks there as well. Murray struggled greatly in his one season in Philadelphia. Henry, despite winning the Heisman Trophy last season at Alabama, might not be ready for the speed and athleticism of NFL defenses. The Titans defense was able to overachieve in 2015, but they could struggle to find that same success this season if they are forced on to the field too often.
Best Case Scenario record: 8-8
Worst Case Scenario record: 4-12
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