The most significant NBA free agency signing of this summer, without question, will turn out to be Kevin Durant‘s move to the Golden State Warriors. The move shifted the balance of power in the Western Conference, making the already championship-caliber Warriors better than ever. But Durant’s signing also did something else – it essentially removed Golden State’s toughest in-conference foe, and potential future rival, from title contention. With Durant now residing in the Bay Area, the future of the OKC Thunder has become murky. All hope is not lost in Oklahoma City, though. This isn’t like LeBron James leaving the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2010, followed by his former team racking up 42 more losses in the next season. The Thunder have the tools to cope without Durant; the question is how they’ll use their current assets moving forward.
The Future of the OKC Thunder
Talented Young Core
Steven Adams
Thunder general manager Sam Presti deserves a ton of credit for positioning the team well enough to compete for a title with Durant, while maintaining a strong young nucleus in the event that Durant would leave. As much as Presti is criticized for trading James Harden for a dime on the dollar, the draft pick that was acquired in the Harden trade brought back a key player for the Thunder: Steven Adams. Adams came into his own in the 2016 Playoffs, making a case for himself as a top five center in the league. He’s a great rebounder, defender, and screen-setter. Adams is also physical and intimidating on the interior, and he finishes at the rim when the Thunder guards drive-and-dish to him.
Andre Roberson
On the same night that they drafted Adams in 2013, the Thunder traded for Andre Roberson, who was picked later in the first round, and he’s developed into a stellar defender on the wing. Roberson would be a terrific two-way player if he could just make three-pointers at an above-average clip. But he has already proven that he can score in other ways, like cutting through the lane for layups and crashing the glass for offensive rebounds. Adams and Roberson both started for OKC in last season’s playoff run, and the two of them will only be 23 and 24 years old, respectively, at the start of next season.
Cameron Payne
The Thunder also drafted Cameron Payne in 2015, and he’s already shown signs that he can play next to Russell Westbrook as a spot-up shooter or run the offense by himself in bench units. Payne will be just 22 years old next season, giving him plenty of time to grow into a starting-caliber point guard, especially if Westbrook leaves OKC next summer.
Enes Kanter
Within the last year and a half, the Thunder acquired a few more key young players. At the 2015 trade deadline, they moved Reggie Jackson, who had clearly worn out his welcome in Oklahoma City. The Thunder’s main haul in exchange for Jackson was 24-year-old big man Enes Kanter, who they re-signed on a four-year, $70 million contract last summer. Kanter has his defensive limitations, but he has certainly improved on that end during his time in OKC. His offense has always been excellent, and he provided a crucial spark off the bench for the Thunder in the playoffs. Kanter was in the running for the Sixth Man of the Year award this past season, and for good reason. His post scoring and mid-range shooting give the Thunder’s offense an extra dimension. Kanter is also an elite offensive rebounder, making for a dangerous tandem when he’s paired with Adams. Expect Kanter to start in the frontcourt next season, as Oklahoma City sent incumbent starting power forward Serge Ibaka to the Orlando Magic on the night of the 2016 NBA Draft.
Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis
The Ibaka trade brought two more young players to the Thunder – Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis, the 12th pick in the aforementioned draft. Oladipo is an explosive slasher and superb defender at both guard positions, and at just 24 years old, he can still develop into an All-Star level player. If Oladipo becomes an above average shooter — he’s yet to make even 35 percent of his three-pointers in a season — it won’t be long before he establishes himself as a star. Meanwhile, Sabonis is just 20 years old, but if scouting reports hold true, he may be able to come in and contribute immediately for the Thunder. Even if it takes a while for Sabonis to thrive in the NBA, he’ll have plenty of opportunities to show his talent and improve over his first couple seasons; he may already be OKC’s best big man off the bench, primed for solid minutes behind Kanter and Adams. If Sabonis plays anything like his father, Arvydas Sabonis, used to, then Thunder fans are in for a treat.
Between Adams, Roberson, Payne, Kanter, Oladipo, and Sabonis, the Thunder have a terrific core of players under 25 years old at every position. Those players will complement Westbrook in Oklahoma City’s attempt to make the postseason next year. In the event that Westbrook leaves in 2017 free agency, OKC is set up for a quick – albeit painful – recovery, compared to most re-builds after the loss of a superstar (or in this hypothetical, two superstars).
Russell Westbrook’s Free Agency
Westbrook’s looming free agency cannot be ignored. In the case of Harden, the Thunder traded him a year before he became a free agent, and it may have been a mistake. In Durant’s situation, OKC let him hit free agency this year with the hope that he would stay put – but he didn’t. With Westbrook, the Thunder have another excruciatingly difficult decision to make. They’ll either have to trade Westbrook before the February 2017 deadline and gather as many assets as possible, in exchange for their star, or hope to re-sign Westbrook but risk losing him for nothing in the summer of 2017.
Possibility of Trading Westbrook
Presti now faces the Westbrook dilemma – to trade, or not to trade? That is the question. Before the Thunder can move forward, they’ll have to decide if Westbrook is a part of their future. The most important thing for them to figure out is whether or not Westbrook wants to be in Oklahoma City. If he does, then it’s worth keeping Westbrook and re-signing him in 2017. But if he doesn’t, then the Thunder need to deal Westbrook for the best offer they can get, while they still have the chance.
Why Westbrook Would Re-sign
Despite all of the speculation, a large group thinks that Westbrook will do the opposite of Durant and re-sign in OKC for the long term. After all, Westbrook is probably fuming at Durant, and he’d love to take revenge while playing for the same team that Durant left. Westbrook’s playing style also makes it seem as though he’d enjoy playing without any other stars – he can run the show in Oklahoma City, unquestionably becoming “the guy” for the Thunder. He’ll finally step out of Durant’s shadow and be able to shine, as he did with an unbelievable run of individual performances during the 2014-15 season, when Durant missed most of OKC’s games due to injury. And finally, Westbrook has seen the moves that Presti has made. He’s thrived playing alongside Kanter and Adams, and he’ll definitely love having Oladipo, another fierce competitor, as his new backcourt partner. Oladipo said that Westbrook even reached out to him just five minutes after the trade sending Oladipo to OKC was reported. The competence of Oklahoma City’s front office must be an encouraging sign to Westbrook, who’s one of the most competitive people on the planet. That bodes well for the Thunder’s future, and one would have to think that Westbrook is closer to a championship in OKC than he’d be with teams like the Los Angeles Lakers or New York Knicks, who are widely known for their management’s incompetence.
Why Westbrook Would Leave
As soon as Durant bolted, many people started to expect Westbrook to do the same next summer, now that he’s the lone star in OKC. Westbrook’s competitive fire might make him want to join a title contender and attempt to take down Durant’s loaded Warriors team. As good as the Thunder’s front office is, Westbrook needs better teammates who are closer to his age, so he may look for a team that can offer him that in free agency. If that’s the case, and Westbrook truly wants to leave Oklahoma City, the Thunder have many potential trade partners — and they’d have to trade him. There would be no better option, if OKC knew that Westbrook was as good as gone.
Potential Westbrook Trades
The Lakers could offer a package that includes some of their young core of Jordan Clarkson, D’Angelo Russell, Brandon Ingram, and Julius Randle. They’d certainly think that they could convince Westbrook to re-sign in Los Angeles, given that Westbrook could play in his hometown and enjoy the glamorous L.A. lifestyle. For the Thunder, this scenario would make a lot of sense. If they could get just two of the four young studs, especially if one was Ingram, this trade possibility would be fascinating. With Ingram’s superstar potential, it may be worth the risk for the Thunder. After all, waiting for Westbrook’s free agency could be just as dangerous for OKC.
The Boston Celtics could offer a similarly enticing trade package. The Celtics would have to be confident that they can convince Westbrook to re-sign, if they were to trade for him. Perhaps he’d sign a contract extension in Boston, with the Collective Bargaining Agreement expiring and a lockout looming in 2017. If the Thunder sent Westbrook to Boston, they’d likely be looking to acquire Brooklyn’s unprotected first round picks in both 2017 and 2018 — the former being a pick swap — which could both fall in the top five or better. The 2017 pick is especially valuable, since next year’s draft class is expected to be loaded with talent. OKC would also want one of the Celtics’ young studs, Marcus Smart or Jaylen Brown, along with a solid player on a bargain contract — either Avery Bradley or Jae Crowder. This trade package might be even better than that of the Lakers, but it’ll be tough to convince Celtics general manager Danny Ainge to let go of so many valuable assets if Westbrook remains non-committal.
There are other teams that would certainly be interested in Westbrook, and may even look to trade for him before he hits free agency, but these are the ones with the best deals to offer the Thunder.
It’ll be a challenging decision for Presti. Trading Westbrook would be heart-wrenching and tough to stomach, but losing both him and Durant for nothing, in consecutive summers, would be much worse.
No matter how you spin it, the loss of Kevin Durant stings. The Thunder now have a gaping hole, not only at the small forward position, but in the locker room, on the team plane, and in the press conference media room. Durant was a part of this franchise before it moved to Oklahoma City, before it even became the Thunder. Now, he’s just gone, and no one can simply step in and replace him. (No, not even the amazing Kyle Singler.) But the Thunder will have to try, and they’ve got a talented core to start. They still have a superstar in Russell Westbrook, and they can add to that nucleus if they’re worried about losing Westbrook in the same way that they lost Durant. The present is hazy in Oklahoma City, but, as the cliche goes, the future is still bright. There’s light at the end of this mid-western American tunnel.
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