Sports. Honestly. Since 2011

Dream Finish to the Super Rugby Competition

If rugby were the ‘game of the Gods’ then the Gods were certainly watching the New Zealand (NZ) Super Rugby teams this weekend. Mythology might have no place in professional sports, but tell that to fans of the Hurricanes. Their team ‘miraculously’ found themselves rising to the top of the ladder by Sunday. That was because of what transpired this weekend, which will make for a Dream Finish to the Super Rugby Competition.

Leading up to Round 17, not many would have predicted the following results. Many commentators had calculators, formulas and even abacus at the ready. The NZ Herald ran an inventive front page on the nationally circulated sports section – see below. A slide-rule would come in handy to project the final placings.

Dream Finish to the Super Rugby Competition

Once the action began Friday night, the form book was thrown out as leading teams fell by the wayside. In nine games, three [form] upsets saw more determined sides prevail. Even the Blues celebrated a memorable end to their new era in ending the Waratahs season short.  Lower placed sides turned-over their higher placed opponents. The culmination of which has ‘flipped the competition on it’s head’.

Round 17 results

Blues 34 Waratahs 28 | Reds 28 Rebels 31 | Sharks 40 Sunwolves 29 | Crusaders 10 Hurricanes 35 | Highlanders 25 Chiefs 15 | Brumbies 24 Force 10 | Stormers 52 Kings 24 | Cheetahs 17 Bulls 43 | Jaguares 34 Lions 22

All week, the talk was of how “this result might then affect the next”. If A beat B = C outcome. In all the predictions though, only the very strongest Hurricanes supporter would have seen their side rise to such heights. The same for Crusader fans. However, in a bizarre twist, the entire competition hinged on the final match-up in Buenos Aires–it would be the final leg taken out from under the standings. With that win, the Jaguares saw the table tumble like a ‘drunk on stilts’.

Yes, that analogy is non-rugby related, yet everything about the last three days has been entirely rugby related. Sitting at Forsyth-Barr Stadium Saturday night, observers had pieces of paper at the ready with alternate scenarios ready to report. Last Word On Sport had been very interested in the local derby matches, our match report of the Highlanders v Chiefs match describes the most thrilling game I have personally witnessd. Intense, it captures the moment but like almost every other match, you had an eye on the proceeding and following results.

Super Rugby Saturday

After the Sharks had beaten their prey [the Sunwolves in fact put on a good show, scoring 29 points] eyes turned surely to AMI Stadium. The opening clash of two held in NZ, it should have seen both sides in Christchurch push the other to the max. A couple of late withdrawals took the wind out of the hosts; Sam Whitelock and Andy Ellis. Not devastating, but enough to remove the polish they portrayed against the Rebels.

Beginning like any other inter-conference match, there were the normal exchanges. The hit-ups were met with equal intensity, the ball spread to each flank and kick-returns were equally attempted. Standard strategy, and it was as testing as every local derby game normally is. Mitchell Drummond, the normal back-up scrumhalf was distributing well but his opposite TJ Perenara had the a higher intensity. The impetus comes from that crucial position, as well as at the back of the scrum. In both areas there was an advantage to the side in yellow. It grew more and more over the half, and even as Ryan Crotty scored, the visiting team were dictating the flow.

Crusaders underwhelming while Hurricanes shine bright

The breakdown was beginning to become a primary target area, and when it buckled, young Drummond did not watch his opposite closely enough. A late gather and attempted box-kick was charged by Perenara (pictured) right on halftime. Ouch. No team wants to walk into the sheds with that feeling. The coaching staff had to work in double-time to communicate required changes, and then Sky TV invites coach Todd Blackadder to comment on his team. He was hardly impressed with their output. Critics of that media interruption will highlight how open his concerns were.

They were well directed. At 10-14, not much was going their way. The mental edge was with the challenges–unbeaten in their last five matches, this Hurricane side were attack-orientated. They generated positive play and they constructed territorial gains that put them near the Crusaders line. In a telling play, new centre Willis Halaholo showed his potential. He took the ball and pushed off the tackle of Matt Todd to score. A plus for the ‘Canes, and evidence that players like Todd; who works so hard all year, can have poor outings. Poor timing for that, but it was not that flankers best game. Nor was it captain Kieran Read’s.

Hurricanes talent shines through

For all their trying, and the Crusaders never stop trying, the hosts could not hold down the Wellington team. Too organised in offence you have to say. That comes from Beauden Barrett, the most improved first-five in NZ rugby without a doubt. He is now running the show, and is perfectly assisted by James Marshall. When Marshall was injured, the structure was not as balanced. The two players operate in unison, as does the loose forward trio. But even as Brad Shields was substituted, his replacement Callum Gibbons then scored his own try. That is shear talent, and right now the Hurricanes have a wealth of it.

The locking duo of Vaea Fifita and Michael Fatialofa are growing with each outing and the front row, inclusive of the ‘Tongan Bear’ Loni Uhila were very very good. The confrontation is being won by the Hurricanes, and it has Chris Boyd’s blessing. The game is not ‘tiddlywinks’ as once called by Tana Umaga, so it was in this game. Won by the 70th minute, Barrett scored an intercept at the hooter, to secure a dominant 10-35 win and a well deserved bonus point. It took them right out to top the NZ table. Superb result.

The next match only rubbed-in the salt, as the Highlanders won over the Chiefs, adding lemon to the cut. By Sunday morning, that cut would have felt more painful for Crusaders fans, who had witnessed the ‘will of the gods’ result in Buenos Aires (pictured) drop their men’s chances in an staggering change in fortunes. Returning Hurricanes players apparently [unconfirmed] broke Airways protocol and live-streamed the game in-flight. Who could blame them–it was a Dream Finish nobody could have predicted.

Final overall standings: Hurricanes confirmed Premiership winner

  • New Zealand conference winning side  1# Hurricanes 53 | 5# Highlanders 52 | 6# Chiefs 51 | 7# Crusaders 50

  • Top placed South African side  (Conference 2 winner) 2# Lions 52 | 8# Sharks 44 (Conference 1 winner) 3# Stormers 51

  • Australian conference winning side 4# Brumbies 43

An examination of the quarter finalists reveals many facts of note. The two adversaries have many points in their favour, have strengths and weaknesses. LWOS looks at the four match compirsons, and share a match winning percentage (%) forecast.

#BRUvHIG

  • BRUMBIES: 6th highest points for; 6th best defence. 53 tries scored, Stephen Moore crossing 7 times. 28.33 points per game (average)
  • This is the team whose Hooker has scored the most tries. No disrespect, but several +50 games embellish their attacking strength. And that will be their biggest issue–how to outscore this Kiwi team? If the penalty count assists, expect Christian Lealiifana and Matt Toomua to kick for goal. The fullback Toomua has potential, but did very little in their loss to the Blues. Note: the weather may play a part, with minus temperature possible. 15% win forecast
  • HIGHLANDERS: 7th highest points; 2nd best defence. 50 tries scored, Matt Faddes crossing 9 times (1st=) 28.13 points per game (avg)
  • They have Ben Smith. Full stop! Of course, a team is more than one player but the MVP of NZ Rugby generally impresses his will on the game. If they target, and successfully hold down ‘Bender’ that is one thing. Then you add in the rest of the backline, add to that the the barking halfback in Aaron Smith. Now consider their loose forwards and tireless tight-five. Honestly, it will be a case of play clean, no penalties and pass the ball out wide. 85%

#HURvSHA

  • HURRICANES: 3rd highest points for; 5th best defence. 61 tries scored, with Barrett crossing 7 times. 30.53 points per game (ave)
  • The ‘Canes will hold court in front of their home fans. The conditions do not seem to phase them; rain or dry, so on Saturday night they will go in as real favourites. If Julian Savea can ‘climb out of his shell’ he might finally show his wonderful abilities, and the new midfield will be more confident that they can compete. Fitness maybe tested though, so if the game is in the bag expect all subs to be used by the 60 minute mark. 80% win forecast
  • SHARKS: 14th highest points for; 1st best defence. 39 tries scored, Lwazi Mvovo/JP Pietersen crossing just 5 times each. 24.0 points per game (avg)
  • The best defensive unit will arrive in Wellington with many goals, but holding back the ‘Canes attack will be pivotal. If they can use a blanket defence, that may upset the intolerant Hurricanes players. Poor discipline might be their Achilles heel. Look for the tight five to hold the ball, squabble for every metre and Garth April to bring his accuracy to the forefront. 20%

#LIONvCRU

  • LIONS: 1st highest points for; 8th best defence. 71 tries scored, with Lionel Mapoe crossing 9 times (1st=) 35.67 points per game (avg) best
  • After relinquishing the top place on the overall standings, head coach Johan Ackermann will need to report to the Board on his decision post-season. It all rests on their ability now to win (which is extremely good) but strategy will only get you so far. Having beaten just two NZ sides, they have a chance. At home, there are good odds and from the numbers you might see them being freshest, and in a way lye waiting to ‘pounce’ on the visitors. 60% win forecast
  • CRUSADERS: 3rd highest points for; 5th= best defence. 64 tries scored, with Johnny McNichol crossing 7 times. 32.47 points per game (avg)
  • The fact they lost is tough enough, but to make it worse they could not get a connecting flight until this morning (NZ time) Why? Because of a lack of flights/planning/scheduling. Not anyone else’s fault, the long-haul flight will be spent mentally preparing to face the best offence in Super Rugby. Known for successful winning overseas percentages, it will only count if they can outlast the fast Lions. Slightly vulnerable, without Nemani Nadolo. 40%

#STOvCHI

  • STORMERS: 5th highest points for; 3rd best defence. 49 tries scored, with Leolin Zas crossing 8 times. 29.33 points per game (avg)
  • NZ fans have very little intelligence on this team. Within a South African conference that did not face any NZ opposition, some discount this side. At home in Cape Town, they hold a true advantage and if they can translate that into the 3rd best defensive unit in the competition. Yet the Chiefs hold a threat, that side will need to improve. Too close to call, I will sit ‘on the fence’. 51%
  • CHIEFS: 2nd highest points for; 7th best defence. 67 tries scored, with Damian McKenzie crossing 9 times (1st=) 32.73 points per game (avg)
  • In the last few games, this team has run ‘hot and cold’. Coach Dave Rennie told media “We know we can go over there to win” but it might not be as easy as that. Liam Messam is now ineligible to continue [not playing enough regular season matches] and with Michael Leitch injured, the pack needs a new specialist. Sam Cane does an incredible job, but wider off the ruck could be their weak point. Turnover ball and penalties cost them in multiple games this year, so they must be accurate. Aaron Cruden must have pinpoint perfection, and a weakened midfield now places more pressure on livewire James Lowe and the attack-minded McKenzie. 49%

NZ Sides in Dream Finish to the Super Rugby Competition

In a way, it has been the best outcome possible. Arguments have been made over bonus points–winning by three tries is difficult at best. The challenges lye now in overseas assignments. Two teams may find it difficult, as the Crusaders will not be as strong as they were mid-season. The Chiefs have lost some of their winning aura, so the Stormers will probably talk-up there chances. Only the Highlanders have the clear advantage over their hosts. If they can brave the weather, the rolling maul and the referee, Ben Smith will return to await the winner from Cape Town.

The stage is set for a magnificent elimination round of Super Rugby.

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Last Word On Sport will preview several match-ups over this week, so continue to follow our coverage of Super Rugby leading up to the Grand Final, Saturday July 30.

“Main photo credit”

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