In June next year, the NHL will have the first expansion draft since 2000. While the new franchise in Las Vegas may not have a name yet, they will be hitting the ice in the 2017-2018 season. The new club must select at least one player from each existing franchise in the expansion draft. However, there are rules on what players Las Vegas can choose from.
Teams are allowed to protect their players and have options. The first is to protect seven forwards, three defensemen, and one goalie. The other is to protect eight skaters (a combination of forwards and defensemen), and one goalie. Players with effective “No Move Clauses” are automatically added to the list. First or second year professionals are exempt. Unsigned draftees are also exempt from the selection. Professional years include time in the AHL. The full list of rules can be found here.
While New York Rangers General Manager Jeff Gorton said that the expansion draft does not impact every move he makes, the team must still make sure that they can keep a core group that can help the team get back on track. With Henrik Lundqvist turning 35 next March, his and this group’s window of opportunity to win a Stanley Cup is closing. Here is the list of players that the Rangers will most likely protect and who they have the best chance of losing.
Who the Rangers will protect in the Expansion Draft
The Rangers are in a situation where they will likely want to protect as many players as they can. Gorton will want to keep a core group of young players like J.T. Miller and Chris Kreider for the future. They will also want to keep some older players that have experience for deep-playoff runs. Ryan McDonagh, Derick Brassard, and Mats Zuccarello have this experience and can be huge in winning a Stanley Cup. That is why it would be in the best interest for the Rangers to choose the first option.
While the Rangers will be able to keep more players by taking the first option, they will lose six spots immediately due to No Move Clauses. These include Brassard, Rick Nash, Marc Staal, Dan Girardi, McDonagh, and Lundqvist. Because of this, it eliminates protecting any other defensemen or goalies and only five of seven forwards. The question remains, who would the Rangers protect out of the five forwards?
With Kreider and Kevin Hayes both undergoing arbitration, their contracts are unknown. However, even if they settle on one-year deals they will both be restricted free agents and eligible for the draft next year. Because of the potential they’ve shown up until now, both Kreider and Hayes are clearly players that the Rangers will want to protect, and that would leave three spots left.
While the Rangers want to protect their future, they must also think about the present. Last year was disappointing with a first round exit but there were still signs of hope. Last year, with Eric Staal on the books, the Rangers were outmatched by the fast paced offense of the Pittsburgh Penguins. Now, Staal is gone and Viktor Stalberg was replaced with Michael Grabner, the Rangers offense should be much faster paced. The Rangers still have the potential to make deep playoff runs in the next few years and if they want to do so, they cannot clear house and start over. That is why Miller, Zuccarello, and Derek Stepan are the only choices the Rangers should have for these last three spots.
Short List of Protected Players
Forwards: Rick Nash, Derick Brassard, Chris Kreider, Kevin Hayes, J.T. Miller, Mats Zuccarello, Derek Stepan
Defense: Marc Staal, Dan Girardi, Ryan McDonagh
Goalie: Henrik Lundqvist
Who the New York Rangers could lose in the Expansion Draft
The Rangers are clearly in a tight situation. They must keep their proven stars in the NHL now and allow their younger players to be subject to the Expansion Draft. While this is risky, the Rangers must keep the present in mind as well as the future. And it would make more sense to lose one prospect that may not turn out than a proven NHL caliber player now. Now, who is subject to the draft?
Forwards
As far as forwards go, the only major veteran forward the Rangers could lose would be Grabner. Nathan Gerbe will be an unrestricted free agent prior to the 2017-18 season. Jesper Fast, and Oscar Lindberg are not under contract in the 2017-2018 season, but will be restricted free agents. They are eligible for the draft but do not count towards the number of players with 40 games experience who must be exposed rule. Meanwhile, players like Pavel Buchnevich, Ryan Gropp, Adam Tambellini, and Adam Chapie would all have two or less years in professional leagues and would not be subject to the draft. There are some restrictions though. NHL teams are required to have at least two forwards under contract during the 2017-2018 season who played 40 NHL games in the 2016-2017 season. That means that the Rangers will need to sign at least one more forward to play 40 games and this will either mean signing Gerbe, Fast or Lindberg to an extension. It could also be an in season trade. However, the chances that Las Vegas will pick Gerbe are low. So signing him may end up being more of a technicality than anything else.
Defense
While the Rangers forward situation seems easy enough, the defense is a different story. It seems that the only positive in this situation is that Brady Skjei is not eligible in the expansion draft. However, Kevin Klein, Dylan McIlrath, and Nick Holden are all eligible. Holden hasn’t been much more than a top-two AHL Defenseman in his career so he likely won’t go. And while Klein is on a very cheap contract, his age may scare away the new franchise. If he had had more playoff success and could lead the team, he may have more value. But that is not the case.
Goalies
The Rangers could’ve gone with the second option for the expansion draft but would open up Miller, Hayes, and Kreider. While Lindberg and Fast could be an important part of the Rangers future, it is not worth giving up one of the three which would definitely go to Vegas. Rangers fans can only hope that the Las Vegas team would rather take a flier on Klein, or look at a goaltender.
While this would expose players like Mackenzie Skapski to the draft, it would not be too much of a danger because of his poor performance after coming back from an injury and his inexperience. This is why teams will not take a flier on him. Antti Raanta would also be open to the draft, which could be a viable option for a backup goalie. He produced a .919 save percentage with a 2.24 GAA last season and is only 27 years old.
Overall
With all the options Las Vegas would have with the New York Rangers, the most viable options would be Raanta, Fast, Lindberg or Klein. Of the options, it is likely that Vegas will go with a forward here. While it will clearly hurt the Rangers in the future, it is the best option to open up Fast and Lindberg to the expansion draft.
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