The Julio Teheran puzzle presents an intriguing trade conundrum for the Atlanta Braves. Teheran represented the Braves as their lone All-Star in San Diego this week. Julio’s first half performance was very All-Star worthy, and he breezed through a perfect fifth inning while pitching for the National League at the Midsummer Classic. All of this was, unfortunately, overshadowed by continued reports about trade tumors involving Teheran.
The Julio Teheran Puzzle
Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald reported that Julio Teheran was “excited” by the possibility of joining a contender before the trade deadline. Though Julio’s responses to the questions at All-Star media day were reasonable, they may have rubbed certain Braves fans the wrong way. There are many Braves fans that still like and appreciate Julio’s game, but there is a large (and seemingly growing) faction of fans that believe it is best to trade Julio while his stock remains high.
The question is not, “should the Braves openly shop Julio Teheran?” For a rebuilding franchise, all players should be openly shopped to see what kind of return can be reaped. The real question is, “should the Braves be eager to part ways with Julio Teheran?”
It would be a mistake for the Braves to trade Julio, UNLESS they can receive the type of massive prospect and player haul like in trades past (think along the lines of the Shelby Miller/Dansby Swanson trade). The “Trade Julio” camp usually presents two arguments in defense of its case. Here are the responses to those arguments.
Argument No. 1: Julio walks too many, gives up too many home runs and has an average at best Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP).
Julio’s numbers in each of the above categories may be signs of concern, but one has to determine if Julio is fully developed as a pitcher or does he still have a high ceiling? The 2016 season will be Teheran’s age 25 season, which is easy to forget considering he already has three full years under his belt prior to this one. Julio’s dreadful 2015 campaign saw him post an ERA over 4.00, give up 27 home runs, and walk more than three hitters per nine innings.
So far, 2016 has been a dramatic turnaround (or rather a return to form) for Julio. He currently has a solid ERA at 2.96, a much better walks per nine innings at 1.9 and a strikeouts per nine innings at 8.1. Not to mention Julio’s WHIP (Walks plus hits per innings pitched) of 0.969 would be his best in a season for his young career. Unfortunately, longballs still plague Julio with 16 home runs in 18 starts and a career homers per 9 innings of 1.1.
All that being said, it does not look like Julio’s dreadful 2015 season should be used as his baseline, but should in fact be looked at as an anomaly. Some people use FIP extensively to grade a pitcher, but it should certainly be used with perspective. For example, it is well known that Julio gives up home runs which is a downside to any pitcher, but what has really impacted Julio’s effectiveness is his walk rate. And his walk rate is trending in the right direction. Also consider the following list:
Best ERA+ through age 25 season:
219 – Pedro Martinez (In his age 25 season, won Cy Young)
153 – Tom Glavine (In his age 25 season, won Cy Young)
138 – Julio Teheran
130 – John Smoltz
129 – Greg Maddux
82 – Randy Johnson
There are certainly things those pitchers had that Julio does not. Pedro did come straight out the gate pretty phenomenal, but every other person on this list struggled early on. Randy Johnson did not debut until 25, and he was a mess for a while. Smoltz and Glavine both took some solid lumps early in their careers. Heck, even Greg Maddux did not really hit his stride until his age 26 season. In fact, a young Greg Maddux and a young Julio Teheran have lots of similarities. That is not to say Julio is going to become a Hall of Fame pitcher, but it is very easy for fans (especially in this society) to want their players to perform like Hall of Famers from the get go. Sometimes players just need a little more time.
Argument No. 2: Julio Teheran is not a legitimate ace.
Tracy Katzke of BoSox Injection (yes, Boston and Julio are repeatedly brought up together these days) had this to say about Julio: “Teheran is far from an ace and he likely profiles as a third starter in the American League.”
I actually do not totally disagree with this statement or the above argument, but let’s clarify and look at a couple of things. What is an “ace?” For most people, the term refers to the upper echelon of pitchers, which includes Clayton Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner, Jacob deGrom, David Price, Jose Fernandez, and Chris Sale. It is completely accurate that Julio is not an ace in those terms. Julio, however, has been the top pitcher of the Braves staff since his first full season in 2013 with the exception of his poor 2015 season. So while the argument is understandable and has some merit, it’s more just an issue of labeling that one must come to grips with. Julio has been the “ace” of the Braves for a couple years now, but he is not (yet) a top-tier “ace” pitcher. Just because Julio is not in the upper echelon of pitchers does not mean that A. He is an ineffective pitcher, or B. He must be traded.
Then there is the issue of Teheran’s contract, which is quite team-friendly in a world of growing contracts. If baseball is an arms race, Julio’s arm might be the most “bang for your buck” in terms of affordability and reliability. Julio is under contract through 2020 (counting the 2020 team option), but Julio is not set to make more than $10 million until 2019. The most expensive years for Julio’s current contract are 2019 ($11 million) and 2020 ($12 million). That certainly sounds like a lot of money but the salary of $12 million would put him as the 30th-highest paid pitcher this season. So the fact that Julio is not an ace is alright because he is not being paid as an ace.
All that being said, the Braves should still treat Julio as valuable in regards to trade talks. Julio may not be a frontline starter, but he remains an effective pitcher that simply needs to be paired with more talent in the rotation. The Braves rotation would look phenomenal in another year or two if Mike Foltynewicz continues to develop alongside Julio and appropriate free agent acquisitions. The right trade may come along for Julio, but the Braves would certainly regret jumping the gun while still early on in Julio’s career.
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