The trade deadline is soon approaching, and when it does, the rebuilding Cincinnati Reds should be selling off their marketable pieces like they are going out of business. The Reds have made it no secret that they are looking to trade players like Jay Bruce and Zack Cozart, and several teams throughout the league haven’t been bashful about letting Cincinnati know that they’re interested.
Teams like the Kansas City Royals, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers, Washington Nationals, New York Mets, Seattle Mariners, Chicago White Sox, Houston Astros, Miami Marlins, Detroit Tigers, and the Baltimore Orioles have all been the subject of whispers and rumors regarding their status as trade deadline buyers and interest in the Reds players most prevalent on the trade block. With the expectation that the Reds should be selling come August 1, let’s take a look at some possible deals.
Trades for Rebuilding Cincinnati Reds: Part Two
Dan Straily
After being placed on the waivers by the San Diego Padres and picked up by the Reds on April 1 on a $512,000 contract, it will be a huge win if Straily fetches any price at all. In nineteen appearances, sixteen starts, and 101.1 IP, Straily has a 4.35 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 2016. Straily has seen time with the Astros, Oakland A’s, and Chicago Cubs, but he is only 27 years old and it was as recent as 2013 that he finished fourth in the Rookie of the Year voting thanks to a 3.96 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in Oakland.
Straily’s solid starts have been a big help for the Reds; but, with all of the young arms that currently occupy the Cincinnati rotation, bullpen, and prospect pipeline, it is unlikely that Straily is a part of any long-term plan. There are some contending teams that actually are in dire need of a back-end rotation guy. The Boston Red Sox, Royals, and Orioles rank 22nd, 25th, and 28th, respectively, in MLB with a starting pitching ERAs of 4.80, 4.99, and 5.21.
The Red Sox just made some sizeable deals to acquire Aaron Hill and Brad Ziegler, but have yet to address their rotation. The Royals are depending on a smorgasbord of pitchers that all have been inconsistent and injured, aside from Danny Duffy. The Orioles may promote Dylan Bundy to replace Ubaldo Jimenez, who has a 7.38 ERA. However, that still doesn’t address players like Tyler Wilson, Mike Wright, and Yovani Gallardo who have ERAs of 5.22, 5.97, and 6.10, respectively.
Straily could be an ultra-cheap option as back-end rotation support, or even as a long-reliever for teams like Detroit, the Toronto Blue Jays, or the Texas Rangers who have bullpen ERAs of 4.09, 4.56, and 4.95, respectively. If Straily gets traded, he will probably land with Baltimore or Boston in one of those “Cash Considerations and/or Player to be Named Later” deals we saw guys like Darwin Barney, Cliff Pennington, and Eric O’Flaherty involved in last year.
Five Most Likely Landing Spots: 5. Detroit 4. Kansas City 3. Texas 2. Boston 1. Baltimore
Brandon Phillips
If we were to look back at possible Phillips trades during the 2015 regular season and off-season, the potential deals look like they came from an alternate universe. Phillips was nearly on his way to the Arizona Diamondbacks or Washington D.C., before blocking the trades to stay in his beloved Cincinnati. There were even talks of a trade with the New York Yankees that would’ve sent “Dat Dude BP” to the Bronx in exchange for MLB.com’s #2 catching prospect and #51 overall prospect, Gary Sanchez. Phillips now stands with a .665 OPS, 0.1 defensive WAR, and -0.2 WAR.
On top of that, he suffered a hair line fracture to his left hand and is playing through the pain. Phillips’s trade-blocking ability has been a sizeable barrier in moving the 35-year-old infielder, and so has has quality of play this season. The Reds have weighed some options lately: 1) designate Phillips for assignment; 2) bench Phillips so Jose Peraza can get time at second base; 3) continue to play Phillips.
If the Reds designate Phillips, his trade value this year would be all but gone, unless he experienced a miraculous turnaround in the minors. If the Reds bench Phillips, his value would be significantly reduced and the potential buyers would have to judge him based off of his terrible first half. If the Reds continue to play Phillips, his play could get better, it could get even worse, or he could experience another injury.
Let’s say he continues to play and has a good few weeks batting after the All-Star break. Let’s say he regains a little bit of his power/speed pop, has a batting average and an OBP around .270 and .320, and shows signs that he is still a fraction of the defensive wizard that owned defensive WAR between 0.9 and 1.6 before his bumbling efforts this season.
He is owed some money and is signed through 2017. The Reds would probably have to pay a part of his salary, as happens in trades for many past-their-prime veterans. No team will trade for BP to make him their starting second baseman; he will probably be targeted for infield depth and platoon work.
It’s not like we haven’t seen this before. In 2015, 36-year-old Chase Utley was owed $6,000,000, had a .217/.284/.333 slash line, a -0.6 defensive WAR, and a -0.5 total WAR. He was shipped to the Dodgers, along with $4,000,000, in exchange for minor league players Darnell Sweeney and John Richy. Sweeney is now the Phillies #23 prospect, according to MLB.com, and 23-year old Richy has a 4.37 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and has demonstrated nice command with 2.7 BB/9. This season, Utley has a .732 OPS and 1.5 WAR, so that risky trade turned out rewarding for both parties. Lesson learned: even if the veteran is struggling and about to deposit a big check, make the effort to trade him regardless. You can’t put half-efforts into a rebuilding process.
Having said that, who would buy Phillips? The obvious answers continue to pop up as maybe the Giants, Marlins, Dodgers, Royals, or Mets. The Nationals and Diamondbacks were the previously interested parties, but Arizona has accepted its fate as sellers and the Nationals now have plenty of infield depth. The Mets and Royals are in most need of offensive help, the Marlins and Giants are simply looking for depth, and the Dodgers are always looking to spend money on their bench.
If all goes well, Phillips would be most likely to land in KC, New York, or San Francisco. If he agrees to the deal, the Reds will likely send money for part of Phillips’s salary. From the Royals, that could net a prospect return ranging from Anderson Miller to Ramon Torres; from the Mets, it could be anyone from L.J. Mazzilli to Jeff McNeil; from the Giants, the prospect return could range from C.J. Hinojosa to Dylan Davis. Those are, of course, the best-case scenarios for a Brandon Phillips trade.
Five Most Likely Landing Spots: 5. Los Angeles 4. Miami 3. San Francisco 2. New York 1. Kansas City
Unlikely, but You Never Know
The Reds have several players that are unlikely to be moved or wouldn’t exactly grab headlines, but could make several buyers that much stronger in their playoff pushes. There are two low-key relievers: 30-year-old Blake Wood, who has a 3.19 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, and just 0.2 HR/9, and 33-year-old Ross Ohlendorf, who has a 4.10 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9, and 9.3 K/9. They are both on one year deals for $600,000 and $800,000, respectively, so they are quite cheap. These two are clearly not part of the Reds long-term plans, so they would be happy to make a deal with any one of the contenders in need of bullpen support, like Toronto, Detroit, or Texas.
Even someone like the hard-throwing Jumbo Diaz could be involved in a deal. Diaz has had a 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP since he has returned to the big league club, and he averages 96.7 mph on his fastball. If Diaz can put together a nice stretch to finish July, he could attract interest. Journeyman Tim Adleman had a 3.72 ERA and 1.397 WHIP before he hit the DL. He’s another guy who could gain some attention from pitching-strapped clubs if he makes a noticeable impact in a short time.
Despite his lack of production on offense, teams could look to 27-year-old Tyler Holt for depth in the outfield, with an eye on his defense and speed. Holt is still young, and in six minor league seasons he has a .274 batting average and a .367 OBP with 152 stolen bases for 25.33 steals per season. He was successful in 80% of stolen base attempts, which is above average. Pinch running, defensive depth, and a 12.2% minor league walk rate are some sneaky features that make Holt appealing.
The Reds could also offer utility infielder Ivan De Jesus Jr. who has played first base, third base, second base, and shortstop this season. His cheap contract of $517,000 and his impressive defensive versatility could make a suitor out of every single contender looking for a utility player for infield depth going into the playoffs.
If you missed part one, you can find it here.
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