Year after year players outperform their ADP. Players buried on the depth chart break out in the preseason and prove they were born to be stars. For example, in 2015 Cam Newton was being drafted in the tenth round, as quarterback number 15 off of the board. As we know, he finished as the number one overall player in fantasy last year with 389 points. The next closest? Tom Brady with 344.
The opposite can also happen. In 2015, we saw eight of the top ten running backs severely underperform their ADP. Some were due to injuries, others were to do poor play.
A league is not won in the first few rounds, but it can certainly be lost there. A league is won throughout the entirety of the draft and in key waiver wire additions throughout the season. This is a list of players who I think will outperform their current ADP and end up helping teams win a fantasy championship.
All of these players have the upside to potentially help a roster win a title.
Diamonds in the Rough: Late Round Fantasy Football Steals
Philip Rivers
2015 was a tumultuous season for the San Diego Chargers. The lack of a run game led to an increase dependence on Rivers. He finished in the top three in pass attempts, throwing the ball 661 times, 79 more times than his previous season high set in 2011. He also finished in the top four in passing yards in two of the last three seasons. This season he will have an arsenal full of talent.
He will have Antonio Gates, presumably for an entire season. He will have Keenan Allen, who was on pace to break his own single season mark in every major category prior to injury in 2015. Danny Woodhead, who is a PPR dynamo, will also be available. And the acquisition of Travis Benjamin will only clear space for underneath routes. Rivers is currently being drafted as QB11, which would make him a bench player in standard formats, ignoring bye weeks. His current ADP is in the tenth round, so if you target quarterbacks late, Rivers should be on your radar.
Isaiah Crowell
The Cleveland Browns. Typically a fantasy nightmare, but insert Hue Jackson and sparks begin to fly. Jackson made it abundantly clear that running the ball will be Cleveland’s main focus in 2016.
Crowell has shown flashes of excitement and capability since entering the league in 2014. He has yet to eclipse 1,000 yards or have double digit touchdowns. But if ever there was a year for it to happen, 2016 is that year. It’s hard not to bring up the Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard comparison, but it will be a similar workload. Johnson will be the receiving back and Crowell will take over the ground and pound duties. He’s currently being drafted as the 39th running back off of the board in round eleven.
Duke Johnson quietly had 61 receptions last year. He’s the man you want to own in a PPR format, so if you read for PPR, insert Duke’s name here instead of Crowell.
Sterling Shepard
Not much can be said about Shepard and his ability as an NFL-caliber receiver. We haven’t seen him play against anyone yet, so much of the buzz surround him is speculation. The argument for Shepard is that he will be playing opposite Odell Beckham, Jr, drawing one-on-one opportunities from, presumably, the oppositions number two cornerback. Also, the New York Giants run game isn’t exactly what most teams would call threatening. Even if Victor Cruz joins in on the action, Shepard will still have FLEX value in standard leagues. He’s currently being drafted as the 44th wide receiver off of the board in the eleventh round.
Zach Miller
Miller finished 2015 with 439 yards and five touchdowns. All but 35 of those yards were accumulated after week nine. Martellus Bennett went down with an injury and Miller took his place and then some. He became a favorite target of Jay Cutler, seeing at least six targets in five of the last six games. He’s currently the 16th tight end off of the board, going in the 14th round. This makes him practically unstartable. Miller will be in the mix for targets with Alshon Jeffrey and Kevin White, and on a team with a need for playmakers, Miller has the ability to become a low TE1.
Sammie Coates
The Pittsburgh Steelers’ number two receiver will be in for a hefty workload, providing significant fantasy impact. Some lean towards Markus Wheaton. He held down the fort in the absence of Martavis Bryant. Who’s to say he can’t do it again? I look at Wheaton as a small, less talented Antonio Brown. The Steelers don’t have a receiver who is the size of Bryant, so substituting that size will be the hardest part. Ladarius Green figures to be a key part in that, if he can get healthy enough to partake in practice reps.
It seems that Coates will be given every opportunity to earn his starting job opposite Brown. He’s 6’1″, 212 pounds, can run a 4.4 40-yard dash, and has a 41 inch vertical jump. Coates, currently being drafted as the 59th receiver off of the board in the 14th round isn’t even being looked at. If he’s available in the last few rounds of your draft, he could be a season winner. The number two wide receiver on a Steelers’ pass-happy offense will be well worth a 14th round draft pick.
