Fantasy Analyst Mock Draft: Part III

One of the best ways to prepare for the Fantasy Football season is by taking part in mock drafts. However, it is always difficult to find a group of people who are willing to sit through the entire draft without going on “autopilot” after their first few picks. Therefore, when I recently had the opportunity to mock draft with eleven other actual people, I jumped at the chance.  Not only did I have a full slate of actual drafters, I was fortunate to have three other fantasy football analysts in the room as well:  Jamey Eisenberg from CBSSports.com, Adam Pfeifer from ProjectRoto.com, and Greg Harrell from TheFantasyCast.com.  We all participated in a 12 team standard mock draft at CBSSports.com.  The draft produced very different strategies, unexpected positional runs, and an idea of when our favorite players will be drafted.

Partaking in the mock draft is easy, but the post-draft analyzation is hard.  I examined each team by the following three criteria:

• Projected starting points per week based on 2015 scoring
• Projected starting points per week based on 2016 CBSSports.com projections.
• My gut instinct on each team

Who drafted the best running backs?  Who had the worst wide receivers?  Who reached for a quarterback?  Let’s start with reviewing the weakest team, and work our way up to the strongest.   As usual, I’ll provide a “good,” “bad,” and “skinny” for each team:

Fantasy Analyst Mock Draft: Teams 4th to 1st

Adam Pfeifer’s Draft

Team:  ProjectRoto.com
Drafter: Adam Pfeifer
Points per week based on 2015:  93.63 (10^th)
Points per week based on projections:  92.11(11^th)
Randle Ranking:  4^th

GOOD:  Adam comes out strong with Dez, A.J. and LeSean as his first three selections. Receiver, receiver, running back is trending as a very popular draft strategy right now. Demaryius Thomas in round four is great value and Ajayi hopes to follow the history of successful backs in Adam Gase’s system. Adam cornered the market on Cleveland running backs, hoping one of them hits in Hue Jackson’s first year as head coach. Two solid tight ends were taken late in rounds 11 and 13 (Ertz and Seferian-Jenkins), which is more support for waiting on tight end.  Please don’t over look a great Marvin Jones pick in Round eight.  The Seahawks’ defense is always tremendous, and Tyrod Taylor in a contract year is a fantastic round 10 selection.

BAD:  Look deeper and you see some warts on the ProjectRoto team.  Dez is still hurt, Ajayi is completely unproven, and Demaryius is a major regression candidate in a run heavy scheme with Mark Sanchez/Paxton Lynch throwing him the football.  Ertz finished strong, but was bad for most of the season, and Seferian-Jenkins was kicked out of practice three weeks ago.  I am not sure where the standout performances on a week to week basis are coming from on this team.

SKINNY:  Picking at the back end of round one will be difficult this year, because you will be faced with second tier wide receivers that have injury concerns.  That said, Adam did a great job assembling this team.  If Dez returns to form, Adam has the best three wide receivers of all the teams.  I wish he had Karlos Williams to handcuff McCoy, but one of his Browns RBs should emerge as a solid option.  The key to this team will be Jay Ajayi, as if he proves to be the main goal line back, this is undeniably a top three team in 2016.

Eric’s Draft

Team:  “Teamname”
Drafter: Eric
Points per week based on 2015:  102.44 (3^rd)
Points per week based on projections:  93.4 (7^th)
Randle Ranking:  3^rd

GOOD:  Eric’s wide receivers jump of the page as he drafted Antonio Brown first overall, and Mike Evans at the start of round three. These are two very solid picks. He sandwiched those picks around the best running back in standard scoring leagues last year in Devonta Freeman. Golden Tate in round four looks to be a great steal also, as the last two years he has averaged 7 catches, over 100 yards and a touchdown in each game Calvin Johnson was injured. Olsen is a solid tight end, and Carr and Brady is an excellent quarterback pairing. Eric has a deep running back grouping with huge opportunities Gordon, Forsett, and Jennings.

BAD: There is really not much to pick at here. The biggest discrepancy between the 2015 points and 2016 projections occurs with Freeman who took a 68.6 point drop. But he offset that with a ton of quality running backs, even though Forsett could potentially be the third best running back in Baltimore this year. If Freeman and Gordon flame out, Eric will struggle in the backfield. It is always a risk to take a player (Brady) that is missing four games to start the season.

SKINNY: I really like this team overall. Eric went wide receiver, running back, wide receiver, wide receiver with his first two picks, and then grabbed a nice group of mid-late round running backs. This is a very popular draft strategy this year:  grab the top wideouts, then a group of running backs hoping that one or two of them hit. He shows why waiting on quarterback is the proper strategy, grabbing two great quarterbacks (Brady and Carr) in rounds eight and eleven. Don’t overlook the Texans’ defense either with his penultimate selection. This is a very good team by any measure, and one of the best from our mock draft.

Jamey Eisenberg’s Draft

Team:  CBSSports.com
Drafter: Jamey Eisenberg
Points per week based on 2015:  94.07 (9^th)
Points per week based on projections:  92.74 (9^th)
Randle Rating:  2^nd

GOOD: No surprise here, but Jamey has a very strong team. Odell and Alshon give him two top receivers and target hogs. Hyde and Ingram are two goal line backs for their respective teams (San Francisco and New Orleans). Ryan Mathews can run or catch it in a revamped Philadephia offense, and Drew Brees in round six could be a huge steal. He could get more points than Brees than the teams that took Newton or Rodgers. The Julius Thomas in round 12 pick is superb, and again solidifies the waiting for tight end theory. Jamey has the best NFL kicker in Gostkowski, and the Giovani Bernard/Karlos Williams tandem adds fantastic depth. This is a great all around team.

BAD: I would have liked to see somebody better than Mathews in the flex spot. Hyde is a major question mark in a new offense coming off a injury plagued short 2015 season. Brees just turned 37, and is a completely different fantasy quarterback outside of dome stadiums. It would have been better to wait on quarterback and picked up another flex option in that spot. The Patriots are not a great fantasy defense.

SKINNY: If Brees plays well and Hyde stays healthy, this is a great team. Alshon Jeffery has an injury history, but in a contract year, I would suspect he plays great. Jamey the best depth of any team in this draft, as Lockett would start on many other teams.  Receiver/receiver to start proved to be an outstanding move for Jamey Eisenberg. This team rates as the second best overall coming out of the draft.

Greg Harrell’s Draft

Team:  TheFantasyCast
Drafter:  Greg Harrell
Points per week based on 2015:  83.88 (12^th)
Points per week based on projections:  92.62 (10^th)
Randle Rating:  1^st Overall

GOOD: As good a team as you can draft by starting with receiver, receiver, receiver, quarterback. Greg has the best receiving core in the draft with three guys that should each get 100 catches. Most people forget Andrew Luck was thought to be a possible first round pick at this point last year, and now because of injuries, he’s way undervalued. Greg clearly is going with pass catching running backs, which is the smart move if you haven’t drafted a running back by round five. I like the idea of drafting three rookie backs, one of them is likely to be a serviceable starting fantasy running back.

BAD: One of the best kept secrets in fantasy football is that Antonio Gates does not see the field before the 50 yard line. While I recognize the need to minimize the plays of a 36 year old tight end, but it hurts his fantasy value. There will be games where Greg gets nothing out of him. I am not sure how effective Dion Lewis will be in those first few games without Brady. Trusting two second year running backs as starters is never a good idea. He really needs Woodhead or Prosise to be big to give him any kind of depth.

SKINNY: Three of the top 12 potential fantasy receivers this year and Andrew Luck? An outstanding start to the mock draft by Greg.  I love the decision of Keenan Allen over Carlos Hyde, Jeremy Hill, DeMarco Murray-like selections.  Between Lewis, Abdullah, Woodhead and the rookies, Greg should get solid running back production somewhere. I don’t like his tight end position, but no team is perfect. Phillip Dorsett in Round 11 is tremendous backup value. For my money? This is the best team of the mock draft.

Be sure to check out parts one and two of my fantasy football mock draft analysis.

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