“We’re excited about the day we’ve had. We think we have good depth up front.”
–Ken Holland
Good depth up front, huh? You think?
A record-setting $630 million dollars spent later around the League, July 1st finally came to an end, and the Detroit Red Wings were right in the middle of it from the first move.
Let’s take a look at a very eventful day for Ken Holland and Co. that has resulted in quite a mixed bag of signings depending on one’s point of view.
Red Wings: Evaluating Every July 1st Signing
–9:55 A.M.–
Darren Helm, C, Five-Year, $19.25 Million Contract ($3.85 million AAV)
The St. Andrews, Manitoba native has had great speed throughout his career. Everyone knows it’s his trademark, and he put it on display in two straight Stanley Cup runs back in 2008 and 2009. But that was seven and eight years ago, and he has not evolved into the 20-goal scorer that he could have been with not finishing on the breakaways created with his speed. He did run into a cavalcade of injuries from 2012-14 that caused him to miss all but one game in the 2013 season and nearly half of the 2013-14 season, where he showed great promise in the 42 games he played (12 goals, 20 points). Though he had a career year in 2014-15 playing on Pavel Datsyuk‘s wing potting 15 markers and 33 points, it was a modest increase from the sample size the season before.
This past season he played on the now-Arizona Coyote’s wing again, only to see his point totals down (13 goals, 26 points) while logging more ice time than 20-goal scorer Tomas Tatar (14:21) and the electrifying Andreas Athanasiou (9:01!), the latter of which scored 12 fewer points and four fewer goals in 40 (FORTY!) less games. His possession numbers also had a sharp decline, going from 57.1% CF% to 51.9% along with the team’s relative shot attempts when he was on the ice going from +5.3-for in ’14-15 to -0.9-against last season. Now pushing 30, Helm is eventually going to slow down through this deal. He could thrive as a third or fourth liner using his speed and body to win battles and create some chances, but that’s a lot of money and term to give to a role player, one that will “pass along the Red Wing way” similar to how Justin Abdelkader will (-_-). Helm is not a bad player, but with the rest of the activity that follows, it’s hard to find a reason why to bring him back, especially at that price and term with change of the roster being promised.
–12:03 P.M.–
Matt Lorito, LW, Two-Year, 1.3 Million Contract ($637,500 AAV) (Two-Way)
I know, I had to Google him too. Basically, Lorito covers for Grosse Pointe native Andy Miele, who signed with the Flyers after totaling 44 goals and 132 points the past two seasons with the Griffins. Undrafted, the 25-year old played four full seasons with Brown University where he scored 47 goals and 106 points in 118 games, topping out at 22 markers and 37 points in his sophomore season (’12-13). He was signed after his senior year to play for the Albany Devils, the AHL affiliate of New Jersey, where he made an instant impact, scoring three goals and 12 points in 11 games. He followed that up with an impressive 18-goal, 54-point season adapting to a professional schedule of 71 games rather nicely.
TSN’s Bob McKenzie made the comparison to Penguins forward Conor Sheary, who also spent four years in school before being signed as a college free agent by Pittsburgh. 27 goals and 81 points in 90 AHL games later (eight goals, 23 points in 23 playoff games), he was up with the Pens scoring OT winners in the Stanley Cup Final. At 5’9″, 170 pounds, Lorito is roughly the same size as Miele and Sheary, but doesn’t look like he’ll fit in with the Wings’ surplus of forwards at the moment. He’ll likely be a top six forward in Grand Rapids replacing the ex-Griffin’s scoring punch. Named captain in his senior year at Brown, head coach Brendan Whittet raved about Lorito’s tenure:
“He’s good offensively, he’s a great leader and he’s going to go down as one of the best players in a long time to wear the uniform.”
-Brendan Whittet, Head Coach, Brown University Hockey
–12:09 P.M.–
Frans Nielsen, C, Six-Year, $31.5 Million Contract ($5.3 million AAV)
I can say nicer things about this deal. Nielsen was widely expected to join Detroit after the Wings missed out on Steven Stamkos, as there was a large hole to fill due to recent events. For a 32-year old, the six year term sticks out like a Greek speedster who is getting way less playing time than he—(Ok, I’m still annoyed at the fact that Athanasiou hasn’t clinched a job on the team, let’s get back to Nielsen). The term makes you cringe, but the AAV is livable compared to other targets the Wings were after. Is it an overpayment for a player who has topped 20 goals and 50 points just twice? Probably, but it’s a move Holland felt he needed to make with money in his pocket to burn that was intended for a much sexier name. Still, Nielsen isn’t a pushover himself. He’s a very under-appreciated two-way player on the ice that was a second-line staple with the Islanders, and from what has been said, he was an even better person outside the rink.
His offensive game has recently improved with the two seasons eclipsing 20+ goals and 50+ points coming in the past two of three campaigns, including 2015-16 (20G, 52P) where he also career high for shots with 181. His special teams work is promising, totaling seven power play goals and 20 points 5v4 to go along with logging the second-most shorthanded ice time on the 4th best penalty kill in the League netting two short-handed tallies. One of 12 men from Denmark to play the game, he’s a smooth skater that isn’t a flashy possession player but has a chance to play in a system that generated the 8th best CF% in the league at 51.73%.
Last season, Nielsen centered Nikolay Kulemin and Josh Bailey, not noted offensive players that produced a 48% CF% combined. Still, Nielsen had one of his better offensive seasons. Coming off of disappointing campaigns in 2015-16, Gustav Nyquist and Tomas Tatar each still drove possession greatly combining for a 56% mark. If neither one are traded and line up with the crafty playmaker in the top-six, some chemistry could develop creating some plenty of scoring chances. He’s also the best shootout scorer of all time converting 42/82 chances, so that may help a *bit* considering the team is 13-29 (!!!) in the skills competition the past four seasons.
–2:19 P.M.–
Alexey Marchenko, D, Two-Year, $2.9 Million Contract ($1.5 Million AAV)
Ah, a defenseman, that’s refreshing. This is just a little housekeeping on the RFA side of things, one of four key ones the Wings must sign this offseason, the others being Danny Dekeyser, Teemu Pulkkinen, and Petr Mrazek. A “bridge” type contract, the team wants to see what they ultimately have in Marchenko, who will turn 25 next season. He won’t show any offensive flare in his game scoring three goals and 11 points in his first full NHL season, but he’s big (6’3″, 210 lbs) and good on his stick. One hardly ever notices him, and for his role, that is a good thing when this team has a couple defensemen noticed for all the wrong reasons.
The Moscow native was a sparkling possession defenseman in his 13-game showcase in 2014-15 where he scored his first career goal and posted a cool 58% CF%, but through 66 games this past season, that number decreased to 50.3%. Marchenko was in and out of the lineup and played with several different partners on a shaky defense as is, plus it was his first full campaign in the NHL after 83 KHL contests for hometown CSKA Moscow spanning four years. He logged the fourth-most minutes on Detroit’s penalty kill blocking 32 shots while shorthanded to lead the team and blocked 100 pucks overall, good for second on the team to Dekeyser, who played 12 more games. Marchenko will likely see an elevated role barring a trade.
–3:44 P.M.–
Thomas Vanek, RW, One-Year, $2.6 Million Contract ($2.6 million AAV)
I really like this move. Throughout the day, Detroit was heavily in on KHL superstar Alexander Radulov, who ultimately ended up choosing division rival Montreal for one year and $5.75 million, $750K higher than Detroit’s reported offer. After losing out there, they turned to Vanek for a similar deal at $3 million less with the hope of a heavily motivated athlete. Recently bought out of a deal that paid him $6.5 million per season, the 32-year old finds himself in a new situation where he can make a big difference up front. He scored 18 goals and 41 points last season, but for a two-time 40-goal scorer and eight-time 50+ point man, one could see why the Wild lost their patience. 5-on-5, he is far from a difference-maker posting a 48% CF% since his last season over 50% in 2011-12, but could really be a boost to the power play.
He scored just six 5v4 tallies this past season, one less from tying his career worst, but the fact that he is 6’3″ and 218 pounds makes him a very useful commodity at the net front. One of the biggest problems with Detroit’s man advantage for most of the season was the inability to effectively screen net minders when point men decided to let it rip. Abdelkader is your closest guy, but he can’t play both units and isn’t a proven goal scorer at the NHL level. Vanek also has a howitzer he can let go of he gets open, so on a power play that likes to be fancy, it’s good to have a finisher that’s buried 15+ power play tallies three times in his NHL tenure. Guess what, he’s right-handed too! In defense of his bad possession numbers, he did play on teams that did not really have systems of good puck possession averaging 47.84 CF% combined since 2011-12. In a puck possession system like Detroit’s, maybe things change for the 32-year old. It’s low-risk, possible reward here, and frankly, I’m intrigued to see how he does. His last contract year in ’13-14 saw him net 27 goals and 68 points.
–4:34 P.M.–
Steve Ott, C, One-Year, 800K Contract ($800,000 AAV)
Just when you thought the day for your hockey team was done, they bring sandpaper in to close it out. A former 50-goal scorer in the OHL, Ott’s days of five consecutive double digit goal scoring seasons (’07-12) are likely behind him tallying just three in his last 122 contests. He isn’t paid to be a scorer, however, as he makes his money pissing the opposing ones off (1475 career PIMS). It was a tough go for the now-33-year old Summerside native last season, limited to just 21 games due to a nasty hamstring injury that saw it rip completely off in an awkward fall clipping skates with Dion Phaneuf. If that wasn’t painful enough, he also was diagnosed with colitis, something that could make a hockey player weak in a hurry. He returned to play nine games with the Blues in the postseason netting an assist.
In his 21 games, he carried a pretty decent possession mark for a pure 4th liner at 51.4% on a team that finished just ahead of the Wings in terms of CF% at 51.98%. When he was with Dallas, he’d be so committed to the agitation game that he read up beforehand on how to say *certain language* to opponents in their native tongues. A fan favorite for a time, Jordin Tootoo was the last real agitator the Wings had before he was put on waivers and eventually buried in Grand Rapids due to an overflow of forwards. Should that problem come up again (it looks likely with 16 forwards signed), Ott can be put in Grand Rapids if youngsters beat him out. He’d likely suit up on the 4th line with Luke Glendening and Drew Miller should he make it.
Well, wasn’t that an eventful day. Five forwards signed and 16 NHL forwards I’d say leaves great depth up front, but there seems to be a plan to Holland’s marathon of signings. The Wings have been actively searching for a defenseman to place in their rotation, one that gave up 2.67 goals per game last season in addition to giving up 29.7 shots, both below and at the league average respectfully. With Kyle Quincey departing, this opens up a spot for possibly another defenseman to enter to fold via Grand Rapids or trade. With the influx of forwards, it appears Holland is actively searching for a partner to acquire a puck mover from the back end. Next up, we’ll be taking a look at possible trade candidates for targets the team may have on its radar.
Quote courtesy of Brown Daily Herald
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