With the NHL facing a nearly flat cap (just a $1.6 million increase) and a looming expansion draft, the lack of qualifying offers is no surprise. Qualifying offers were due yesterday to the restricted free agents around the NHL. As of now, there are over 110 newly minted unrestricted free agents who now flood the free agent market with cheap depth players. The finally tally is not known, as the Toronto Maple Leafs have not made their list public.
In past years, there were a number players that did not receive qualifying offers. But never the magnitude of this quantity nor quality. Why the massive turnover in rosters? It’s likely not any single factor. No one thing could move the proverbial needle that much nor that far. But with Las Vegas joining the league soon and the accompanying expansion draft, the relatively flat salary cap likely brought the NHL to this point.
(Also check out our 2016 Not Qualified All-Star Team)
The Vegas Effect
When the NHL announced that Las Vegas would join the league for the 2017-18 season, everyone from fans to front offices wanted to know the rules for the expansion draft. The NHL has taken steps the new franchise will be competitive from day one. Las Vegas will not select lower than sixth in the 2017 draft. The expansion draft is only allowing 11 players be protected, with rules to ensure experienced NHL talent is available.
Teams have already started making the roster moves not to lose high-value players for nothing to the desert. Frederik Andersen was traded to the Maple Leafs for this reason. Reportedly Steve Yzerman has said one Tampa Bay Lightning goalie is moving before the end of the 2016-17 season. We are already seeing the effect of a looming expansion draft.
With so many players not receiving qualifying offers, GMs are being cautious with their contracts. Having the room to sign experienced depth players will be a goal for teams this off-season. Expect to see a lot of two-year deals on depth players with a few years of NHL experience. This will allow teams to leave those players unprotected and satisfy the rules for the expansion draft (namely having enough forwards and defencemen on the unprotected list, who are NHL veterans, and under contract for 2017-18).
Cap Propped Up
There just is not the money as in previous years for free agents of any variety. The NHL salary cap was forced to go up when the NHLPA elected to use the 5 percent growth factor, their right under the current CBA to raise the cap ceiling. Without it, the salary cap would have contracted for the first time in history.
In the end, the NHLPA went with the 5% growth factor again. Has become norm. Without it, the cap would have been $69.5-million.
— James Mirtle (@mirtle) June 22, 2016
The front offices know the business side of hockey better than anyone. Could the league have some rough waters ahead? The Canadian dollar has reeked havoc throughout the NHL, including the Quebec City expansion bid. Having the fallout reach the low rungs on the roster ladder is not much of a surprise. Factor in some of the amazing dollar amounts star players are fetching, there is not much room left for the players that round out a roster.
Lack of Qualifying Offers Is No Surprise
Between the cap situation many teams are facing and the roster manipulation that will be needed to get each NHL roster in its most advantageous position in an expansion draft, these are the moves NHL’s point to when they remind fans this is a business. In any event, many affordable players that just hit the open market and you can check out our All-Unqualified Team here.
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