The following rankings are for quarterbacks who are currently on teams and have the best ability at this moment. Surrounding talent, system, and experience all play a role. But we will also be trying to stick to each player’s individual ability in determining our AFC quarterback rankings.
AFC Quarterback Rankings by Division
AFC North
1. Ben Roethlisberger – Big Ben has the benefit of having the best wideout in the NFL and a very good run game. But he is also talented enough to mask an average defense, make and create exciting plays, and be considerably clutch. Although not the gaudy numbers some of the other quarterbacks atop their divisions will have, Ben’s arm strength, ability to extend plays, trust in his teammates, and leadership set him apart from the rest of this division. Roethlisberger has been doing big things lately and consistently throughout his likely Hall of Fame career.
2. Andy Dalton – This is a debate for most people but in reality it is not even close between Dalton and Joe Flacco for the division’s second best. The “Red Rocket B.B. Gun” (thank you J.J. Watt) has been great for a while now, but unfortunately has not been able to perform when it matters most. This past postseason was not his fault because he was injured for the first time, so no blame there, but the difference between Dalton and Roethlisberger is the ability to make big plays in big games.
3. Joe Flacco – Flacco and the Ravens passing attack struggled when Steve Smith got injured, with Flacco throwing four touchdowns and four interceptions in games without Smith. The Ravens running game is good and Flacco has a huge arm, but the numbers (14:12) and the success, or lack thereof, just weren’t there last year. With a Super Bowl in his pocket, Flacco will always be a threat to play great. However, he clearly needs more help and is not the guy who can lead just anyone to victory.
4. Robert Griffin III – RG III, or whoever their 1000th starter in the last five years will be, won’t be very good. Griffin is Mr. Injury and unfortunately that is not something that can just be forgotten. Having to start over while being thrown under fire in Cleveland will be no easy task. Hue Jackson is a good coach and will make the Browns quarterbacks better, but that does not mean they will be any good. The Browns probably could have used that high draft pick on a potential franchise guy. They will likely have another shot at a top college quarterback in next year’s draft unless they find a way to rekindle some of Griffin’s rookie season magic that took the league by storm.
AFC East
1. Tom Brady – Moving on. Seriously.
2. Ryan Tannehill – Second by default is Ryan Tannehill. In truth, Miami’s defense was horrible and their offensive play-calling even worse. They had a solid running back in Lamar Miller before he moved off to Houston, but he barely got the ball and too much pressure was put on Tannehill to dig this team out of the holes that its defense got them in. Tannehill managed to create some magic with Jarvis Landry and that will need to continue if Miami, and Tannehill, plan on being successful.
3. Tyrod Taylor – T-Mobile for the Bills comes in third in this division. His ability to extend and make things happen with his legs give him a good chance to make an impact on any given play. Taylor and Sammy Watkins have established a good chemistry, making Watkins look uncoverable at times. Just ask Darrelle Revis. Unfortunately, Taylor has not even attempted enough passes (380) to surpass Tannehill yet.
4. Geno Smith – Geno Smith has not been a good quarterback for the Jets. He has shown flashes, but each game everyone is just waiting for the bad turnover to happen followed by his best impression of Eli Manning‘s face. Contract discussions are still ongoing for Ryan Fitzpatrick, so as of now, Smith is the guy, and he is easily the bottom of this division. If Fitzpatrick signs with the Jets, he will slide right into second in this division.
AFC South
1. Andrew Luck – In the AFC South, it’s Luck and it’s not even close. He had a couple of young wideouts who are talented, but clearly Luck wasn’t healthy, had terrible protection, and had a mediocre run game in 2015. The offensive line was a huge issue that was correctly addressed in the 2016 draft, so hopefully Luck and the Colts will be better and back to normal in this coming season. By “normal,” I am referring to three seasons of nearly 13,000 yards, 86 passing touchdowns, 12 rushing touchdowns and elite level quarterbacking ability.
2. Marcus Mariota – Blake Bortles is the popular pick here, but not quite yet folks. I know fantasy football fans will swear by him, but that is for another discussion. Numbers don’t tell all with athletes and this is one of those cases. With no team around him, no run game, and no wideouts, there is not much anyone can do. Luckily, Mariota has a solid tight end in Delanie Walker and protection from offensive tackle Taylor Lewan. But those two guys were the only things keeping Mariota afloat in 2015. With all that being said, a 91 quarterback rating over 12 starts with a 19:10 touchdown to interception ratio is one heck of a start for this young gun-slinger. With some help, Mariota could be a real dual threat that will scare defenses now and in the future.
3. Blake Bortles – Now Jaguars fans will be happy. Allen Robinson has turned into a match-up nightmare while undrafted free agent Allen Hurns is also a serious threat. A better defense with help from Jalen Ramsey, Myles Jack, Malik Jackson, and Tashaun Gipson will keep the Jags in games and then we will see what the kid is made of.
4: Brock Osweiler – Brock Osweiler has a lot to prove. He did show he is cool under pressure, but that’s about it. That win against the Patriots in overtime was great, just ask C.J. Anderson. However, losing the starting job, which was given to you on a silver platter by old man Peyton Manning, is not so great for Mr. Osweiler or the Texans faithful. Throwing ten touchdowns and six interceptions over eight games is not necessarily a recipe for success, but the potential is there so hopefully Osweiler will give Houston what they have been looking for at quarterback for several seasons.
AFC West
1. Philip Rivers – As mentioned, numbers don’t tell the whole story but here we have a case where numbers do tell a story and it is a pretty good one. With roughly 4,800 yards, 29 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, a two percent interception percentage (second-lowest of career), and an overall rating of 93.8, Rivers and the Chargers offense had one heck of a season. Compiling those kinds of numbers with a horrendous offensive line proves that Rivers is very, very good. The connection Rivers has created with Antonio Gates is historic, while Keenan Allen has also come on as a great, young receiver who will likely continue to grow while working with Rivers. Seen as the gunslinger type, Rivers has the ability to make any throw that is required on the field, so with some improvements on the offensive line, he should be able to cut down on some of his turnovers and create more plays downfield.
2: Derek Carr – I have jumped aboard this bandwagon and so should you because Derek Carr is a beast. The Raiders at best have an average run game, one very good wideout (who was a rookie), and that’s about it. Carr did not have the luxury of a young quarterback’s best friend, a good tight end, and yet was a monster in 2015. Carr’s numbers were great (32:13 touchdown to interception ratio) but even prettier was his demeanor and leadership. The future is bright in Oakland, or wherever they move to.
3: Alex Smith – Smith is one of those guys who many people say never seems to get enough credit. I am not one of those people. Smith is average, has been average, and always will be average. Yes, he will have a nice game here or there with some nice numbers. However, when your system wants you to hand the ball off 25-30 times a game and you don’t throw the ball more than 15 yards downfield, I don’t care what the numbers are or how “efficient” one may be. You are average at best. Let’s not forget that Chiefs wide receivers went an entire season without a touchdown reception two years ago.
4: Mark Sanchez, Paxton Lynch, Trevor Siemian – Outside of Geno Smith, this might have been the easiest pick of the bunch. Sanchez is going to Sanchez himself and learn the system, work hard, and be a great fill in for a game or two. However, he will not be successful, or even average, for 16 games. Paxton Lynch was probably a third-round talent who got scooped up early because the NFL needs quarterbacks and stories, and he fits both of those needs. After Denver Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak called his arm a “pro arm,” Trevor Siemian has kept himself in the mix post-minicamp. Although he had an ACL injury two seasons ago, Siemian has had a season with the Broncos offense and Peyton Manning to learn. Luckily for one of them, whoever the starter is between these guys will have loads of talent around him. If anyone does manage to pick things up quickly and play well, that person may be able to jump a whole one spot above Smith because he will never touch Carr or Rivers.
