While the sports gods have historically hated Cleveland, the city has gotten an unbelievable run of luck in one area: The NBA Draft Lottery. The Cavaliers have won three top lottery picks that changed the course of the franchise. These picks led to the most impressive Finals comeback of all time on Sunday night. (They’ve actually won the lottery four times this century, but the Anthony Bennett pick in 2013 was, shall we say, underwhelming.)
Lottery Luck and a Fortuitous Trade Were Key to Cavaliers Title
Of course, winning the lottery in 2003 to get LeBron James was the crown jewel. A specific sequence of ping pong balls gifted the Cavaliers the greatest player since Michael Jordan. While he left in 2010, James’ first seven years with the Cavs were instrumental to his desire to return home and finish the job in 2014. I’m guessing you’ve read a lot about how lucky the Cavs were to draw the top pick in 2014 despite having the ninth best odds at 1.7%. If that hadn’t happened, the Cavs wouldn’t have had the assets to trade for Kevin Love. It’s hard to say if LeBron James would have gone back to Cleveland without the addition of another big name.
For whatever reason, sports fans and media don’t remember how important the Cavs other top pick was. In 2011, Cleveland won the draft lottery.
The Trade
Well, actually, the Los Angeles Clippers won the draft lottery, but the Cavs owned the pick thanks to one of the most horrible trades of the past decade. While the NBA was still feeling the effects of the recession in February 2011, the Clippers traded Baron Davis and their 2011 first rounder to the Cavs for Mo Williams and Jamario Moon. After the 2011 season, Baron Davis had two years and $28 million left on his deal. The Clippers didn’t want to pay because of looming DeAndre Jordan and Eric Gordon extensions. Mo Williams picked up both of his options for a total of $17 million. Jamario Moon was an expiring deal. Clippers GM Neil Olshey stated about the trade, “And I’m not that high on the draft to begin with this year.”
Reasons for the Deal
Olshey knew that his team was headed for the 6th-10th best shot at the number one pick. He felt that the players in that range weren’t worth the extra cap space he could get by trading Davis. There are two problems with that line of thinking, though. First, Olshey failed to comprehend the spot that the Cavs were in. Mo Williams was a fine point guard, and could help the Clips, but had little value to the Cavs. Even if Williams would up picking up his options in Cleveland like he did in L.A. (unlikely, since the Cavs play in Cleveland and had little to offer after LeBron James left), what value would Williams have to the Cavs? To take them from 20 to 25 wins in the 2012 season?
The Cavaliers had no shot of getting free agents by virtue of playing in Cleveland. Their only realistic shot at a superstar was lottery picks. They also were going to have a ton of unused cap space for those years because, you know, Cleveland. It seems like taking on an extra $11 million over the next two years for a lottery pick, and potentially the number one pick, would be a no brainer for the Cavs, right? That’s what Olshey should have realized.
No Protection
That brings me to the second huge mistake that Olshey made: not protecting the pick. Olshey may have hated the draft, but the 2011 draft was not as bad as the 2013 draft, when everyone knew from the get-go that there were no superstars. While Kyrie Irving wasn’t as hyped as Anthony Davis or Andrew Wiggins, he was seen as a legitimate star. Maybe top three protection on the pick would have been too much for the Cavs, but don’t you think they would have gone for top one protection? Even just from the perspective of saving face and not looking dumb in front of the whole world, isn’t it a good idea to make sure that you don’t accidentally trade the top pick for $11 million over two years?
Kyrie Irving’s game winning three in Steph Curry’s face will be played over and over again for the next few months and for as long as the NBA exists in our society. When you watch that shot, remember that the Cavs didn’t just get lottery luck en route to having LeBron James and Kevin Love. They also benefited from ping pong ball luck in the 2011 draft. But it was only after Clippers GM Neil Olshey committed a major error by trading his first round pick. He failed to realize that, for how happy Cleveland is right now, that’s how desperate they were in 2011.
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