It is always interesting to look at the fantasy football ADP (average draft position) values after the season and identify who were the biggest bargains. Players like Cam Newton, DeAndre Hopkins, David Johnson and Allen Robinson were huge values relative to their 2015 ADP. One of the most important jobs of a fantasy football analyst is to try to find those values in this year’s draft. It requires a lot of research and a ton of gut instinct. As we start to look at fantasy football ADP more closely, let’s match up the bargains from last year and identify their corresponding player in 2016. Then we will answer the question: If this season mirrors the 2015 fantasy season, could these players be the fantasy sleepers of 2016?
Fantasy Football ADP Crystal Ball: Best Buys
1) Chris Hogan (New England Patriots)
2015 Perfect Match: Allen Hurns (Jacksonville Jaguars)
ADP: WR 66
Total: 161 points, WR16
Why it will happen: The New England Patriots have made a history of finding average players on other teams and turning them into solid fantasy scorers. Players like Brandon LaFell (WR24 in 2014), Wes Welker (WR11 2007, WR12 2009, WR3 2011), and Corey Dillon (RB5 in 2004) all performed well above their average annual production after they arrived in New England. Hogan fits that mold perfectly as a solid wide receiver in Buffalo who had yet to breakout. Hogan’s nickname is “7-11” because he’s “always open.” If that moniker holds true in 2016, it would make him the perfect sleeper candidate with the Patriots.
Why it won’t happen: The Patriots may certainly make Hogan more productive, but it is also true that his situation is not ideal for a breakout. Jimmy Garoppolo is the starting quarterback for first four games, and there are a lot more mouths to feed than in the past, as Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Dion Lewis, and now Martellus Bennett will all warrant targets. Hogan’s situation is not quite as optimal as the players that have come to New England before him. In addition, Hurns’ 2015 year was extremely fortunate: ten touchdowns on only 105 targets. It is next to impossible to see a repeat of a 10:1 target to touchdown ratio from the #66 drafted fantasy wide receiver.
Prediction: Bill Belichick didn’t spend $12 million dollars on a player he doesn’t plan on using. With his knowledge of the division and injuries to current wide receivers, Hogan could be a great value along the lines of Hurns last season. At such a low price, it is definitely worth the risk.
2) Mohammed Sanu (Atlanta Falcons)
2015 Perfect Match: Michael Floyd (Arizona Cardinals)
ADP: WR 51
Total: 120 points, WR 32
Why it will happen: Floyd was injured at the start the 2015 season, and didn’t start producing until Week 6 at Pittsburgh. From that game on, he averaged 12.9 fantasy points per game in standard scoring leagues. Floyd emerged from a crowded receiving group on a great offense and subsequently helped many owners win their fantasy leagues. Sanu has changed teams from Cincinnati to Atlanta, but is the clear number two receiver behind Julio Jones. After finishing tied for first in receptions with 136, Julio will draw a lot of attention from defenses, leaving Sanu in one on one coverage. Throw in a high octane offense led by Matt Ryan, and this is a great spot for Sanu to qualify as a sleeper.
Why it won’t happen: While the Falcons pass a ton (fifth in NFL in pass attempts), the majority of yardage goes to Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman. In addition, Ryan’s touchdown production has been mind-boggling poor (21st in TD passes in 2015). Last year’s Falcons offense was not kind to number two receivers; both Roddy While and Leonard Hankerson struggled with consistency. Throw in the fact that Sanu has never caught more than 56 balls in a season, and it is simply asking too much for him to repeat Floyd’s end of year explosion.
Prediction: Sanu was always the third option in Cincinnati. Marvin Jones one year, then Tyler Eifert the next. This is a legit WR2 opportunity. With the year Julio Jones had last season, Sanu will absolutely get a ton of chances. Tight end Jacob Tamme is average at best, and all he has to hold off is wide receivers Justin Hardy and Eric Weems. You are getting great value with Sanu, and with the inevitable Julio one or two game foot injury looming, this looks like a perfect comparison to me.
3) Golden Tate (Detroit Lions)
2015 Perfect Match: Brandon Marshall (NY Jets)
ADP: WR 22
Total: 230 points, WR 3
Why it will happen: While Marshall’s situation was not thought to be ideal, the Jets ran the ball so well that it gave him one on one coverage often and quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick had a very solid season. Eric Decker also provided a solid wideout on the opposite side to keep the pass defenses honest. Tate is now the best receiver in an offense that will have to throw the ball to stay competitive. Without Calvin Johnson, offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter has thrown out the playbook and revamped the offense completely. Look for more short passes and slants, which plays perfectly to Tate’s game. Finally, over the past two seasons, when Calvin Johnson was injured, Tate averaged 7.7 catches, 105 yards and one touchdown per game.
Why it won’t happen: Brandon Marshall was already established as a top ten receiver in the NFL before last season. He had monster seasons that Tate has never had. Losing a Hall of Fame receiver in Calvin Johnson cannot possibly help the offense. Stafford has always shown a tendency to force the ball into tight coverage. This was a habit that was compensated for by the presence of Johnson. Can Tate really thrive as a number one receiver? Are we even sure he’s better than Marvin Jones on the opposite side? A tough division and schedule looms as well.
Prediction: The Lions will almost certainly have trouble running the ball (last in total rushing yards in 2015). Plus, they figure to be behind in games and will need to throw the ball. Tate is the top receiver and is entering his third year in Detroit. He may not be top three, but I would be shocked if Golden Tate does not finish as a top 12 wide receiver, and therefore an official WR1 in standard scoring leagues.
4) Clive Walford (Oakland Raiders)
2015 Perfect Match: Richard Rodgers (Green Bay Packers)
ADP: TE 18
Total: 109 points, TE 8
Why it will happen: Tight end is a fantasy position that people tend to draft very early or very late. It is always smart to take a close look at tight ends on pass heavy teams, simply because of volume. In Green Bay, quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been looking for a reliable tight end his entire career. Last year, second year player Richard Rodgers produced a top ten fantasy season despite being an after thought on draft day. Rodgers finished fifth in touchdowns for tight ends, outpacing Greg Olsen and Delanie Walker. This year, Clive Walford enters his second season in a passing offense as well. The 6’5″, 250 pound target is set to get a lot more looks from Derek Carr and drastically improve on this 28 reception, three touchdown year from 2015. Passing defenses will no doubt key on wideouts Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, giving Walford room to roam in the middle.
Why it won’t happen: To start, Derek Carr is not Aaron Rodgers. Secondly, the Raiders are not the Packers. Carr not only has the wide receivers to feed, but also a great group of pass catching running backs with Latavius Murray, Taiwan Jones, Roy Helu and Marcel Reece. Despite being much improved, Walford will not crack the top ten at the position. Too many mouths for Carr to feed in this offense.
Prediction: Richard Rodgers earned his quarterback’s trust, and Walford will do the same. He will always get man to man coverage, and could easily replicate Rodgers’ eight touchdown production. Oakland has one of the best offensive lines in football, which will free up Walford to attack downfield. Out of all the “Buy” candidates listed, this is the easiest one to see happening.
5) C.J. Anderson (Denver Broncos)
2015 Perfect Match: Doug Martin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
ADP: RB 18
Total: 199 points, RB 3
Why it will happen: When Anderson is healthy, he is a force. He came on strong with 27 fantasy points Week 12 vs. New England and then 13 and 15 standard fantasy points in Weeks 16 and 17. Anderson carried this right into the playoffs, and enters an ideal offensive situation in 2015. Gary Kubiak loves to run the ball, and will do so behind either Mark Sanchez or rookie Paxton Lynch. It will be a conservative offense, similar to the one Tampa Bay ran last year with Doug Martin. The Buccaneers didn’t want rookie quarterback Jameis Winston taking too many attempts downfield, and Martin was the beneficiary. If Anderson stays healthy, he is a lock for a top five running back finish. He can run with power, is elusive, and can catch the ball.
Why it won’t happen: There are too many mouths to feed between Anderson, Hillman, rookie Devontae Booker, and Juwan Thompson. Anderson is only 25, but has yet to demonstrate an ability to stay healthy. He failed to meet the preseason expectations, and his stats were skewed by the big home game vs. New England. If you just look at the metrics for running backs, there are many other better NFL running backs, even though he is in a potentially great situation.
Prediction: Kubiak is a run-first coach, and now has the security of a Super Bowl championship. Anderson is the best running back on the roster and is a solid contributor on third down as well. The key comparison is at the quarterback position. Either Paxton Lynch or Mark Sanchez will be under orders to not make mistakes. This offense will resemble the Chiefs with quarterback Alex Smith. Close one to call here, but with running back being a wide open fantasy position, I lean towards yes.
You can continue on to the most overrated ADP players of 2016.
