With all forty rounds completed and 1,216 college and high school prospects selected in the 2016 MLB Draft, the Cincinnati Reds now have forty-one new minor league players to contribute to the rebuilding period. After a slew of trades including Alfredo Simon, Mat Latos, Mike Leake, Johnny Cueto, Marlon Byrd, Todd Frazier, and Aroldis Chapman, and impending deals involving Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips; the Reds are taking it on the chin in 2016 so that a core of young talent can build for the years to come.
So in looking at the Reds’ Future, let’s analyze Cincinnati’s 2016 MLB draft as a whole and see what the crystal ball predicts for the great beyond in Great American Ball Park as the twenty-two pitchers, three catchers, nine infielders, and seven outfielders start their journeys through the minor leagues.
A link to Part One may be found here.
Cincinnati Reds 2016 Draft Review: Part Two
Round 3, Pick 79 Overall: Nick Hanson, RHP, Prior Lake High School
At 6’6” and 210 pounds, Nick Hanson is one large 18-year old recent high school graduate. Hanson was named Minnesota Baseball player of the year for Prior Lake Christian HS in 2016, and he deserved every ounce of the honor in that accolade. This season, Hanson started fifteen games, producing a 0.68 ERA while allowing just 5.58 hits per nine innings pitched, and fanning an impressive 14.67 batters per nine, on his way to being named to the USA Today All-USA Minnesota First Team. Hanson is a solid athlete and was a heralded infielder in high school as well, batting for a .417 average in his senior season.
Reportedly, there is inconsistency in Hanson’s performance, partially be attributed to volatile Minnesota spring weather, that made a lot of scouts a little unsure of what to think of him. Hanson has had some strange shifts in the quality of his pitching repertoire, having his fastball average between 91-94 MPH in some starts and 88-92 MPH in others, with the general consensus stating that his heat maxes out at 96 MPH. Hanson’s second most effective pitch is his power-curve ball, but despite the skill and ability behind this pitch, Hanson has struggled to keep the curve in the strike zone with any reliable consistency. Scouts have also profiled Hanson’s changeup as little used and mostly ineffective against his Minnesota high school competition.
Hanson’s size and athleticism gives him the durability and potential to be a workhorse in the future, but there isn’t too much hope for Hanson eating up innings if he continues to struggle with command, control of his curve ball in the strike zone, and consistency in the velocity of his go-to pitch. Hanson was able to over power batters when he took the mound for Prior Lake, but to succeed at the professional level he needs consistent velocity, control, and an expanded effective repertoire. Hanson made a four-year commitment to play baseball at the University of Kentucky. Due to his high selection in the draft, he probably won’t make the journey to Lexington, but it is possible that four years of pitching in the SEC could give him the schooling in command that he needs to reach his full potential at the next level.
Way-too-Early Grade: C-
Round 4, Pick 108 Overall: Scott Moss, LHP, Florida
Scott Moss was one of the biggest prospect mysteries of the 2016 MLB Draft, and the Reds made the bold move to roll the dice on the Florida southpaw. What makes Moss so mysterious? Well first off, his size is quite appealing from the get-go. Moss is 6’5” and 210 pounds, so he is rather stout and packs a lot of power into his left-handed delivery. Next note of mystery: due to missing two years at Florida after Tommy John surgery and going through a steady, tentative recovery, the 21-year old Moss has pitched just twenty-three innings in the SEC.
In his five starts and eight relief appearances, Moss had a 1.57 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, 5.87 hits/9, 3.52 BB/9, 12.13 K/9, and allowed zero home runs. The only other recent amateur action to speak of for Moss is a 2015 stint in the Northwoods League with the Madison Mallards. Moss made thirteen relief appearances, pitching 20.2 innings and producing a 3.48 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, 6.97 Hits/9, 13.06 K/9, and once again not allowing a single home runs.
What could the possible drawback be? He walked 6.97 batters per nine innings. That is wild and unpredictable to say the least. Why would a big league club roll the dice on a pitcher with such a checkered injury past and such a limited sample size of performance? Let’s put Moss under a microscope: when he did pitch for Florida in the highly-competitive SEC in 2016, he pitched very well. He limits hits very well, he strikes batters out at an insane pace, and he suppresses home runs like James Bond’s Walther PPK silencer. His only drawback is the massive amount of batters he walks, but that can be heavily attributed to the extended periods of time Moss wasn’t able to take the mound.
Moss is able to touch 95 MPH on his fastball and can regularly reach 93 MPH with comfort. He has a nasty slider that generates the high volume of swings-and-misses that give him such high K/9 rates. Moss also has shown flashes of a changeup in his arsenal, but he hasn’t been able to take the mound with enough regularity to really master it. A really telling clue about Moss is that the Gators thrust him into a sudden high leverage situation when he was penciled in to start the semifinal of the SEC tournament. He responded by pitching six shutout innings.
The stigma of Tommy John surgery has been slowly fading away, and it seems as if Moss and the Florida baseball staff handled his recovery responsibly, conservatively, and realistically. Moss seems as if he is in the clear, and his one glaring weakness should evaporate as he puts in time and gets more comfortable in game situations. He strikes out a lot of batters and suppresses hard hit balls…sounds like the perfect kind of pitcher for Great American Ball Park. As a fourth round pick, Scott Moss is a great bargain.
Way too Early Grade: A-
Round 5, Pick 138 Overall: Ryan Hendrix, RHP, Texas A&M
If Moss is a roll of the dice, then Ryan Hendrix is a single ticket in the Powerball Mega Millions Lottery. Hendrix is 21 years old and sizes up at 6’3”, 210 pounds. The Reds seemed to pick pitchers continuously more stout as the draft progressed. Let’s get the ugly numbers out of the way. Hendrix doesn’t look remotely special at first glance with 2014, 2015, and 2016 ERAs of 7.27, 3.66, 6.39; WHIPs of 1.62, 1.51, 1.58; Hits/9 of 8.31, 9.61, and 7.11; HR/9 of 2.08, 0.46, 1.07; and BB/9 of 6.23, 3.97, and 7.11. That doesn’t look like a guy worthy of a Cincinnati fifth round pick.
Now for the redeeming qualities. Hendrix increased his strikeout volume every year at College Station, with consecutive K/9 figures of 9.35, 10.53, and 12.79. He has also had some very good stints in amateur play. In 2014, Hendrix made ten appearances and pitched forty-four innings for the Matsu Miners of the Alaska League. He finished the run with a 3.07 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 6.14 Hits/9, and 8.8 K/9. However he still struggled in allowing walks and home runs, with a BB/9 of 4.09 and HR/9 of 0.82.
So, what made a guy who allows a lot of runs, hits, walks, and homers worth the trust from the Reds? Hendrix has a very legitimate arsenal that is dominant at its peak performance. Hendrix started off the season last year for A&M pitching absolutely lights out from the bullpen, and put himself in the position to be one of the most coveted relievers in the draft last year. Then came the drop in velocity. During his dominant relief stretch, Hendrix was averaging 94-96 MPH and maxing out at 98 MPH. When he started slumping, he was averaging 92-94 MPH and peaking at 97 MPH, but found himself unable to go any higher than 92 MPH on some days.
Scouts have profiled Hendrix’s power curveball as one of the best curveballs in the entire draft, as it has been described by MLB.com as a, “…power downer that can climb into the mid-80s…”. Hendrix also has a changeup up his sleeve that has found success in the past in deceiving batters and sinking below the swing. When acting as a starting pitcher for the Aggies, Hendrix struggled mightily. There is no doubt that if he makes it to the Majors, it will be as a power reliever. The power is the tricky part.
Hendrix is dominant if his “stuff” is working. If he can find 94-96 and hit 98 MPH on his fastball, if he can utilize his deadly curve ball effectively, and if he can improve his command and control drastically once he enters the Cincinnati farm system, then there is a future for Hendrix yet. This pick is a gamble because so many things have to go right and start clicking for Hendrix to reach his potential. If the stars align in his development, the Reds may have stolen their closer of the future with the 138th pick in the draft.
Way too Early Grade: C+
Overall Draft Review
The Cincinnati Reds selected a great mixture of mature college prospects and high-upside high school prospects. The Reds took a lot of safer, more reliable players who have the potential to be MLB ready a little quicker than the organization is typically used to. They then backed it up by selecting a core of more raw prospects who will need more time to develop and are able to come in like reinforcements if those more seasoned prospects and early bloomers ever reach their limits, as it is expected that the raw athletic talents have a higher ceiling of performance.
With Robert Stephenson and Cody Reed an inch away from long term call-ups, the majority of the Reds rotation and bullpen being composed of recently acquired youth, and prospects like Jose Peraza, Amir Garrett, Alex Blandino, Jesse Winker, and Phil Ervin moving their way through the pipeline, this draft gave the farm system much needed depth in all areas of play and set the Reds up for many years. The only clear negative for the Reds draft is that some picks weighed much heavier in realistic pessimism than they did in realistic optimism.
Some players were drafted purely on what scouts profiled them as being, and not whether it is realistic to still expect that of them, or whether their performance track record supports what the scout consensus thought they had the potential to be. This is most apparent in the drafting of Hanson and Hendrix. These picks very well might pay off handsomely, but the Reds must balance the probability of Hanson eventually learning to throw his fastball within the necessary range and mastering command of his two other pitches, just like you have to balance the probability that Hendrix will snap out of a three-year slump and learn to consistently throw his fastball in the mid- to high-90s. They could net big rewards, but so could project picks in the 40th round. In the first five rounds, it isn’t always the best idea for a rebuilding project to consistently go for broke on a few 20-1 thoroughbreds that looked excited out of the gate.
Way-too-Early Overall Draft Grade for the Cincinnati Reds: B+
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