With all forty rounds completed and 1,216 college and high school prospects selected in the 2016 MLB Draft, the Cincinnati Reds now have forty-one new minor league players to contribute to the rebuilding period. After a slew of trades including Alfredo Simon, Mat Latos, Mike Leake, Johnny Cueto, Marlon Byrd, Todd Frazier, and Aroldis Chapman, and impending deals involving Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips; the Reds are taking it on the chin in 2016 so that a core of young talent can build for the years to come.
So in looking at the Reds’ future, let’s analyze Cincinnati’s 2016 MLB draft as a whole, and see what the crystal ball predicts for the great beyond in Great American Ball Park as the twenty-two pitchers, three catchers, nine infielders, and seven outfielders start their journeys through the minor leagues.
Cincinnati Reds 2016 Draft Review: Part One
Round 1, Pick 2 Overall: Nick Senzel, 3B, University of Tennessee
The Reds have had a really good time in selecting pure hitters from the NCAA ranks, and they decided to give it another go in selecting Tennessee third baseman Nick Senzel 2nd overall in the 2016 MLB Draft. Senzel has made dramatic improvements in his overall plate approach over his three year collegiate career. In 2014 and 2015, Senzel had strikeout percentages of 11.5% and 16%. In 2016, he was able to take that strikeout percentage all the way down to just 8%.
After producing OPS of .839 and .894 consecutively, hitting for a combined five homers on isolated power numbers of .105 and .170, and stealing a combined twenty-one bases in twenty-seven attempts, all in just 381 at-bats, Senzel exploded in 2016. He took 210 at-bats, hit eight long balls on an impressive isolated power figure of .243, stole twenty-five bases in twenty-nine attempts, and had a .352/.456/.595 slash line.
Senzel has also flashed his talent in the Cape Cod League, where he had 154 at-bats, hit four homes runs, stole fourteen bases in nineteen attempts, and hit for a slash line of .364/.418/.558. Senzel bounced around defensive positions for a little bit in college before landing at the hot corner, where his arm strength is a big plus and allows him to competently play the position despite no exuberant defensive talent. He doesn’t have mind blowing speed either, but he is a skilled player with a high baseball IQ that makes up for any physical talent he lacks in any aspect of the game.
With so much youth currently learning the ropes at the big league level for the Reds bullpen and rotation, it is the big bats that the Reds need to stock up on for the long-term rebuilding process. Senzel brings the plate discipline, contact hitting, and OBP ability that Jesse Winker brings to the table, except Senzel offers a far higher ceiling in the power department. Throw in that Senzel can run the base paths with intelligence and isn’t a defensive liability, and Senzel looks every bit the mature big league ready bat the Reds used the second overall pick on.
Way-too-Early Grade: A+
Lottery Round A, Pick 35 Overall: Taylor Trammell, OF, Mount Paran Christian High School
Taylor Trammell is a very good baseball player out of the state of Georgia, and it is a distinct possibility that it isn’t his best sport. This year, Trammell rushed for 2,479 yards and ran for thirty-six touchdowns on his way to being named the Georgia Class A Offensive Player of the Year. This clearly illustrates that Trammell is a freakish athlete with a great combination of power and speed. That is what it takes to dominate the ranks of Georgia high school football.
This power/speed combo is evident when analyzing Trammell’s high school baseball statistics. In just 160 at-bats between his sophomore and junior seasons, Trammell hit ten homers and stole thirty-nine bases while producing consecutive slash lines of .343/.492/.686 and .393/.526/.672. While hitting for OPS of 1.179 and 1.198 as a 16 and 17 year old is nice, Trammell’s high athletic upside comes with a few drawbacks.
Most high-level prep athletes today will choose a sport early, say in middle school, to specialize in so that they can master a single sport year-round. Trammell was an upper echelon multi-sport athlete all the way to high school graduation, when he fielded college scholarship offers in football and baseball. Due to the multi-sport focus, Trammell wasn’t able to become the finely-tuned baseball player as he could’ve been. Trammell struck out 10.5% of the time, as he is still learning how to read pitches. He has the athleticism and raw ability to hit for power, burn the base paths, and develop a niche in center field, but Trammell will most likely have to spend an extended period of time in the minor leagues as he tackles the learning curve. His raw talent makes him a high-upside selection, but he is a risk-reward project who will have to focus and work hard if he wants to reach his potential in Cincinnati.
Way-too-Early Grade: B-
Round 2, Pick 43 Overall: Chris Okey, Catcher, Clemson Univeristy
Chris Okey, the two-time All-ACC First Team Catcher, has been around the block when it comes to being selected to high honor and high competition teams. At 21-years old, Okey has already been a part of five U.S. National Teams, where he got the chance to continuously work behind the plate with the most talented and elite of pitchers in his peer group. It was this continuous cooperation that caused Okey to gain a reputation as someone who works very hard and does well at managing a pitching staff. His defensive skills outside of game management are serviceable but aren’t too special.
What makes Okey special is his versatility and athleticism with the bat and running the bases. While at Clemson, Okey struggled to find a rhythm at first in 2014 with a batting average of .248, an OPS of .661, and an isolated power figure of just .102. In terms of his athleticism though, it was still able to show through in a limited capacity. Despite an OBP of just .311 in 226 AB in 2014, Okey still stole 3 bases in 5 total attempts. After 2014, however, Okey’s level of play exploded. In 2015 Okey stepped up to 235 AB, hit 12 HR on an isolated power figure of .230, produced a slash line of .315/.389/.545, and stole 3 bases in 3 attempts for a 100% success rate.
This season for the Tigers, Okey expanded once again on his influence at the plate; taking 239 AB, hitting 15 HR on a very encouraging isolated power figure of .272, producing a slash line of .339/.465/.611, and stealing four bases in seven attempts. In his college career, Okey stole ten bases in fifteen attempts for a 66.7% success rate, which demonstrates the athletic upside that Okey brings to the position. A big drawback for Okey is that in his final two seasons at Clemson, he struck out 18.1% of the time. He may struggle to find a way to balance out batting for average and power at the next levels.
The good news with Okey is that he has a collegiate track record of offensive success in both power and contact. He may have to learn to adjust his swing for power and contact shifts and learn how to be more disciplined in seeing the strike zone, but at least he doesn’t have to learn how to be athletic and how to be powerful. That is much more difficult to learn from a coach.
Way-too-Early Grade: B
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