2016 June Incoming Rugby Tours
2016 June incoming rugby tours kick off this weekend, with the All Blacks hosting Wales in Auckland, the Wallabies taking on England in Brisbane and the Springboks facing off against Ireland in Cape Town.
Wales and Ireland are in for a ‘whitewash’ and England may scrape through with one test win, but if the recent International friendly between Wales and England is anything to go by, it will be a three for three Southern hemisphere washout.
This kind of prediction will not sit well with fans from the Northern hemisphere, who just last year had to sit back and watch as their southern counterparts occupied all final-four positions at the 2015 Rugby World Cup. Only Scotland really looked in any shape to compete, whilst England embarrassingly passed out early at its own party like a teenager who ‘found the keys to the old mans booze cabinet’.
Historical Dominance
The World Cup whitewash was a tipping point for southern hemisphere rugby dominance. It sparked a discussion in the general public about the imbalance of rugby power. This is nothing new and you only have to look back into the history of the game to see how prevalent this trend really is.
If you dig into the data, as far back as 1905 it is clear the Southern teams were superior when it comes to chucking the ‘old egg’ around the paddock. The top 5 Northern nations have a combined average winning record of 25% against the Springboks, 35% against the Wallabies and a feeble 11% against the All Blacks.
Not surprisingly, given their history, France is the most successful Northern side against Southern hemisphere rugby nations. The French have a win average of 33%. That being said, they seem to have ‘lost the plot’ in recent years even though they have a Top14 league budget of just over £100 million. Just as well the Gaelic Roosters aren’t flying south for the summer then.
Style of Play
The North’s downfall has been its inability to adapt its style of play, a core example of this is at scrum time. New Zealand, South Africa and Australia view the scrum as an opportunity for front-foot ball and quick quality possession to the backline, to allow for a multi-pass attack.
The North on the other hand, generally use the scrum as an opportunity to squeeze out a penalty. The scrum penalty count at the 2015 Rugby World Cup confirms this: the number of scrum-time penalties between Northern Hemisphere sides hugely out-numbered those when Southern hemisphere teams met.
It is also clear that there is a world of difference in the fundamental skill sets between the two hemispheres. Ball handling, passing, spatial awareness and the ability for all 15 men on the park to be ball players is a pre-requisite that stretches down to schoolboy rugby in New Zealand and Australia.
Whilst South Africa still place physicality and power at a premium, it comes with a sophistication and intelligence that is currently beyond the likes of England, Ireland and Wales. The Springboks are street smart rugby players, forged by stacks of raw meat and ‘recreational tackling of wildebeest’ on the weekends [sic] They may be towering brutes, but they have a plan and they have the ability to execute it.
South Africa vs Ireland
The Irish have lost the Kearney brothers and crucially Jonathon Sexton, who has been the form standoff in European rugby over the last year. Since Paul O’Connell and Brian O’Driscoll retired, they look a bit tired. They are strong around the fringes at scrum time and Paddy Jackson (standing in for Sexton) is a great talent who likes to double around and create opportunities out wide. The team seems capable of squeezing out penalties, but crossing the whitewash is a labored effort.
The Springboks will simply be too strong. The likes of Duane Vermuelen, Eben Etzebeth, Francious Louw and Adriaan Strauss wont give an inch at set play and in the loose, they are disruptive and destructive. The backline will be awash with new combinations but with front-foot ball, there is just too much power, pace and skill to do anything other than send the Irish home winless. New coach Allister Coetzee (pictured) will be under pressure to begin a new era in 2016.
All Blacks vs Wales
Wales have copped a lot of flak from former players on their style of play. However, if you look at the stats from the RBS Six Nations, they do try and play a passing game and their set piece holds its own but the players are just not up to it. Jamie Roberts has aged faster than a ‘sitting US president’ and Sam Warburton failed to turn over a single ball the entire Northern hemisphere tournament. Those are their key ball players and if they aren’t firing, you can’t expect the rest to do any better.
The New Zealand sides are dominating the Super Rugby tournament, occupying the top four positions on a combined log, and by some margin as well. Even the reality that they won’t have Dan Carter and Richie McCaw (to name only two missing leaders) there are just too many superstars in that team.
Aaron Smith is the world’s best number 9 at the moment and Kieren Reid is just a freak with the ball in hand. Jerome Kaino, Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick are power runners that don’t do anything other than cross the advantage line. The pace out wide with Julian Savea (pictured) and Waisake Naholo will be too much for the Welsh. You can also expect Aaron Cruden to play like his life depends on it, with Lima Sopoaga and Beauden Barrett breathing down his neck, to take over that All Black number ten jumper.
Not even bread from heaven will be able to stop the All Blacks from feeding the Welsh a solid dish full of somber reality.
Australia vs England
England under Eddie Jones is a completely different team. Jones brings self-belief and a Southern hemisphere philosophy to their game. The development of English lock Courtney Laws underlines his need to have a team of 15 ball players, as opposed to an indiscriminate set of forwards and backs. That change in mindset will ultimately restore pride to English rugby and make them a serious contender at the next Rugby World Cup in 2019.
Australia have been struggling in the Super Rugby competition but the Waratahs have come good over the last couple of rounds. You cannot deny that Bernard Foley will have the edge over whomever Eddie Jones slots in at 10. Israel Folau will most likely start at 15 with Kuridrani likely at centre. That will provide a strong balance on the counter-attack, as well as front-line attack. The Wallaby lineout however, won’t be what it was last year and that may be a point of weakness should England play an accurate kicking game.
This will be the most competitive set of games to watch and with Eddie’s influence could theoretically be ‘up for grabs’. That being said, Australia is not an easy place to tour, particularly because of the British media. It should be an epic battle between the packs but Australia’s backs have more experience at this level, and the likes of Folau and Foley should see them home to a three-nil whitewash…probably.
2016 June Incoming Rugby Tours results could be a ‘spark’ for change
After the June International test window closes and the dust has settled, the Northern hemisphere sides will be able to dissect their performances. One can only hope that their governing bodies take note of the fundamental changes that need to be made, to compete consistently on a global platform.
The rugby laws are regularly changing to speed the game up and create a more spectator friendly competition. It is evident that the game’s evolution has followed a southern path and that you either need to catch-up fast, or find yourself extinct.
The plethora of Southern hemisphere experience and talent applying its trade on European soil at the moment is astonishing. Unions should be looking to these players as ‘champions for change’ and drawing them into development roles at grass roots levels within their systems. Chasing short-term club objectives to line the coffers; whilst ignoring its impact on organic national development at youth level has already derailed English football. It looks to be doing the same in France.
We can only hope, for the good of the game, that it’s not too late for Rugby Union.
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The International rugby season begins on Saturday 11 June. All the results will be available on Last Word On Sports, so follow all the incoming rugby tours over the next month here on LWOS.
“Main photo credit”
