The position of fantasy football tight end for 2016 can be best classified as “volatile.” If you can select a player that produces consistently, your team will have a strong weekly advantage. However, if your selection ends up being a bust, you will start each week at a huge disadvantage.
Just like the quarterback position, you usually start only one tight end, but you need to ensure roughly double digit fantasy production on a weekly basis. Could that mean selecting one of the elite tight ends early in your draft? Sure. Could you also wait on tight end and play the matchups each week? Definitely. In 2015, there were some great late round picks that ended up as top ten overall fantasy tight ends. Will that same be true in 2016? Let’s take a look at my 2016 Fantasy Football Tight End Tiers:
Fantasy Football Tight End Rankings for 2016
Tier 1: Death, Taxes and Rob Gronkowski
1. Rob Gronkowski (New England)
Skinny: He is the best tight end in the league in regard to fantasy production. Gronkowski has finished as the number one fantasy tight end three times in his seven year career (2011, 2014, 2015). His reliability, red zone targets, and back-to-back top tight end seasons solidify this top spot. However, are you willing to draft him in Round 1? I have already outlined that doing so is very risky, but if you really want him on your team that is probably the cost. As long as Gronkowski stays healthy (he is injury prone), his floor is a top three tight end, even with Jimmy Garappolo as his quarterback for four games. Gronkowski is, without a doubt, the top fantasy football tight end.
Tier 2: If someone else finishes as the top tight end, it has to be one of these guys
2. Jordan Reed (Washington)
3. Greg Olsen (Carolina)
Skinny: It’s simple: when Jordan Reed plays he produces. Reed finished 2015 with 87 catches, 952 yards and 11 touchdowns. Could he be even better in 2016? The Redskins obviously think so, and if he plays a full season he could easily knock Gronkowski from the top spot. Greg Olsen is “Mr. Consistency” and has finished as the number four tight end each of the past two seasons. His touchdown numbers are usually single digits, and that’s what keeps him from being the top guy. But given the difference in average draft position (www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com) between him (50.7) and Gronkowski (10.5), it may be much better value to wait.
Tier 3: Great Value Tight Ends
4. Travis Kelce (Kansas City)
5. Coby Fleener (New Orleans)
6. Gary Barnidge (Cleveland)
7. Delanie Walker (Tennessee)
Skinny: At some point, the Kansas City Chiefs have to understand their best receiver is Travis Kelce. He teased everyone with a two touchdown Week 1 vs. Houston, and then didn’t score another touchdown until Week 8. My gut says Andy Reid starts to feed him more this year. Coby Fleener was always a productive player in Indianapolis, especially when Dwayne Allen was hurt. Now, he goes to a New Orleans Saints’ offense that made the 35-year-old Ben Watson (now with Baltimore) the number eight tight end in standard scoring in 2015. Barnidge had an amazing year (number two in standard scoring), but I fear a regression in an uncertain quarterback situation. “Mr. Underappreciated” at the tight end position is Delanie Walker of Tennessee (#8 in 2014, #5 in 2015). With Marcus Mariota in year two, and a current ADP of 65.8, you should feel very comfortable if he is your choice for Week 1.
Tier 4: The Atlantic City Group
8. Julius Thomas (Jacksonville)
9. Zach Ertz (Philadelphia)
10. Antonio Gates (San Diego)
11. Austin Seferian-Jenkins (Tampa Bay)
12. Ladarius Green (Pittsburgh)
13. Tyler Eifert (Cincinnati)
14. Jordan Cameron (Miami)
15. Eric Ebron (Detroit)
Skinny: This is the gambling group. Each player has big upside, but with it a crucial question mark that makes their selection a risk. Hit it right? You will get exceptional value at a fraction of the cost. Get it wrong? You will start every week at a disadvantage, especially to teams that selected the players above.
Julius Thomas was hurt to start the season and really didn’t provide an impact until Week 6. It is just hard to ignore a 6’5″, 260 lbs target on a pass heavy team. There are a lot of mouths to feed in Jacksonville, but with most of the attention on wide receivers Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns, he could be a top five tight end this year.
Ertz finished last season with a nine catch, 100+ yard average over the last four games. It is just hard to predict how new head coach Doug Pederson will use him.
Antonio Gates is a legend, but it was frustrating to not see him on the field unless the Chargers got past mid-field. Plus, he turns 36 in two weeks.
Seferian-Jenkins, much like Thomas, was hurt for a large portion of the year. But Jameis Winston needs another option besides wide receivers Mike Evans and an aging Vincent Jackson.
Ladarius Green is in this tier strictly based on opportunity, but just had ankle surgery and missed OTA’s.
Eifert led the position with 13 touchdowns last year, yet only finished as the sixth best tight end in fantasy scoring. Combine that with his injury from the Pro Bowl (which he just had surgery for last week), and it is very difficult to put him in the top ten.
Jordan Cameron is a great sleeper, especially when he agreed to take a pay cut just to play for Adam Gase.
Eric Ebron could see a huge boost in targets and catches with future Hall of Famer Calvin Johnson‘s departure, but he has to cut down on his drops.
Tier 5: Limited Upside But Safe
16. Dwayne Allen (Indianapolis)
17. Charles Clay (Buffalo)
18. Zach Miller (Chicago)
19. Richard Rodgers (Green Bay)
20. Clive Walford (Oakland)
21. Kyle Rudolph (Minnesota)
Skinny: Allen should be much higher now that Coby Fleener is in New Orleans, especially because he is always on the field as an excellent blocker. But injury concerns and his touchdown dependent nature put him in this tier.
With wide receiver Sammy Watkins injured and quarterback Tyrod Taylor in a contract year, I see better numbers from Charles Clay in 2016.
Zach Miller should get the most targets out of this group, and had a strong season last year with Jay Cutler. He could sneak into a TE1 position with a good preseason.
Richard Rodgers had a breakout year with a TE9 finish in standard leagues, but the signing of Jared Cook from the Los Angeles Rams takes some air out of his higher tier balloon.
Walford learned the offense last year, and could take a big jump with quarterback Derek Carr firing the ball in an explosive Oakland offense.
Kyle Rudolph is dependable, and more than capable, but until the Vikings’ offense opens up and lets quarterback Teddy Bridgewater throw, I can’t put him any higher.
Tier 6: Ole’ Reliable
22. Martellus Bennett (New England)
23. Jason Witten (Dallas)
24. Jimmy Graham (Seattle)
25. Will Tye (New York Giants)
26. Jared Cook (Green Bay)
27. Ben Watson (Baltimore)
Skinny: Bennett is historically a fast starter, and should see consistent targets in a high powered New England offense. If Gronkowski were to get hurt, he immediately vaults into the top ten.
Witten is a Tony Romo favorite, and should provide steady fantasy value even at age 34.
Jimmy Graham has a terrible first year in Seattle, and no timetable has been set for his return from a torn patellar tendon in Week 12 vs. Pittsburgh. The thinking here is that Seattle opens up the offense this year, so if he is somehow available for in the first few weeks, this is a great late round steal.
Will Tye was solid in his rookie season for the Giants, but will his role expand in 2016, or regress because of Larry Donnell‘s presence?
I think Richard Rodgers is better than Jared Cook, but this contract indicates the Packers might not think so.
Watson was great in New Orleans, but was that because of Drew Brees? There are a lot of different options in Baltimore which will hurt his potential value.
Tier 7: Waiver Wire Watches
28. Vance McDonald (San Francisco)
29. Ryan Griffin (Houston)
30. Jace Amaro (NY Jets)
31. Jeff Heuerman (Denver)
32. Tyler Higbee (LA Rams)
Skinny: Vance McDonald had three touchdowns from week 11 on, but Garrett Celek‘s presence dilutes his value.
Griffin is better than C.J. Fiedorowicz, but will new quarterback Brock Osweiler think so?
Jace Amaro missed all of 2015 with a torn labrum, but had a promising rookie campaign in 2014. The uncertainty at the quarterback position keeps him in the last tier.
Jeff Heuerman missed his entire rookie season with an ACL injury suffered early in the offseason, but coach Gary Kubiak has been praising him for two years.
Higbee, the former Western Kentucky star and 4th round draft pick of the Rams, has off the field issues and is behind veteran Lance Kendricks.
