As the postseason draws to its enthralling climax, fans and analysts alike begin to eagerly turn their eyes forward to the season ahead. Amidst talks of potential future draft picks, trades, and management changes, the buzz surrounding the NHL is certainly reaching a fever pitch. Part of looking forward, however, is looking backwards in an attempt to analyze the highs and lows of the previous season. For fans of The Columbus Blue Jackets, last season’s disappointing finale concluded yet another stretch of inconsistent, frustrating play from an ever-changing array of veterans, misfits, and exciting youth prospects.
Perhaps no single event last season generated as much noise as the January trade of talented first-line center Ryan Johansen to the Nashville Predators in return for a promising young offensive defensemen in the form of Seth Jones. Although speculation abounded, and continues to circulate, regarding the nature of Johansen’s departure, what is certain is that the trade is complete and that both teams have benefitted from it. Nashville received the big, talented, 1C that they so desperately desired, and one of the biggest question marks in the CBJ roster began to take shape in a way that certainly lays the groundwork for cautious optimism among the members of the Fifth Line.
Columbus Trade Talk: Analysis of the Jones – Johansen Trade
With half a season in the books, and a long summer for both sides to analyze and reflect, the importance of the players involved to their new respective clubs may not yet be fully realized, yet they have already established themselves as possible keys to future success. For instance, in 42 regular season games with the Predators, Johansen managed to produce an impressive 34 points in the form of 8 goals and 26 assists, improving on his tally of 26 points in the previous 38 games with Columbus. Furthermore, his production of eight points across 14 games in the playoffs helped drive the Predators to the Western Conference Semifinals, where they lost in seven games to the San Jose Sharks. Surrounded by a deep, talented pool of forwards, Johansen’s first full season with the Predators should, by all accounts, elevate him into the realm of elite centers. And, to add to this point, it is not unlikely that he could produce upwards of 80 points on a regular basis throughout what has the potential to be a long and productive career.
With all the niceties out of the way, however, the question still remains: which team got the better end of the deal? Certainly the upside of a player like Ryan Johansen is potentially astronomical, and yet the same could be said for Seth Jones. Stuck behind the likes of Roman Josi and Shea Weber in Nashville, Jones was given more responsibility immediately upon his arrival in Columbus, and responded by rising to the task admirably. His time on ice leapt from an average of 15.4 minutes in Nashville to 18.9 in Columbus, and as such, he managed to create nine more goals (1G, 8A) in only one more game played. Due to added minutes, tougher zone starts, and playing as part of one of the league’s worst defenses, his Shot Attempt Percentage (Corsi %) dropped, coming in at 49.38% in Columbus, compared to 58.02% with Nashville. Hovering close to 50%, despite facing top competition for the first time in his career, and having much more defensive zone starts than he did with the Predators shows that he has the potential to be an important cog possession wise.
Furthermore, his influence as an offensive threat has essentially allowed Columbus to feel as though they have received two separate players rather than one. While they’ve certainly received the tough, intelligent mind of defensive Seth Jones, they’ve also managed to pick up a 6’4”, 208-pound monster of a winger with an excellent one-timer and a penchant for picking out the right pass at the right moment, as well as the hustle to get back and cover when he’s called upon.
What’s more, his very presence in the first pairing has given the highly-touted Ryan Murray the chance to begin to play to his potential. The two were paired together upon Jones’ arrival, and the chemistry was noticeable almost immediately. Whereas he had previously been paired with players ranging from Jack Johnson to Cody Goloubef, Murray became Jones’ partner in a way that saw their joint time-on-ice eclipse that of any other pairing a mere month after Jones’ arrival. Alongside Jones, Murray’s points-per-60 more than doubled, his individual scoring chances increased by nearly a third, and his individual corsi skyrocketed. These statistics were also echoed throughout the larger team as a whole, especially in the realm of offensive production. The passing and puckhandling abilities of Murray and Jones allowed for more time-on-ice in the offensive zone and, as a result, more shots per 60. Simply put, Seth Jones allowed Ryan Murray to be better, and the team benefitted from it.
Granted, these observations are based on a limited sample size, and things have a tendency to change in a league as dynamic as the NHL. What’s certain, though, is that both Jones and Johansen have the potential to be essential components of their new teams. Johansen’s upside as a prolific assist machine has the potential to rival that of his idol, Joe Thornton, and Seth Jones, assuming he re-signs with the Jackets, can serve as the lynchpin of the Columbus defensive core for years to come. But if it’s a question of relative value and impact on their respective clubs as a whole, the CBJ may have gotten the better end of the bargain on this trade. In Jones, they’ve seemingly found not only a solid defensemen with a great offensive upside, but just as importantly, the key to unlocking whatever box in which Ryan Murray has been hiding.
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