It was not so long ago that fantasy players were expected to load up on running backs in the early rounds, and wait to draft the wide receivers. This was especially true in non-PPR leagues. Reviewing leagues and roster spots led to simple and logical conclusion: wait to draft wide receivers. How important can they be, if there wasn’t a point added per every reception? It was commonly accepted fantasy strategy to load up on running backs early. Running backs were thought to be the automatic, without a doubt, ideal first round fantasy football selections. If you failed to take a running back in the first round, you were laughed at by the rest of the league.

My, how times have changed.

Fast forward to last year, 2015. If one were to land Antonio Brown and Julio Jones (as I did last with my first two selections last season) One could be well on their way to a Fantasy Football Championship.

Now, there are certainly many different ways to win a Fantasy Football Title, and some may have won last year by potentially starting running back/running back. However it would seem that the best strategy would now be to take a quality wide receiver in Round 1 and even Round 2 if you get the opportunity. The reason is simple: the NFL is now a full fledged passing league. Pass catchers will be the foundation of your fantasy football team. Three down running backs rarely exist anymore, as more and more teams have gone away from having a lead running back and going to a running game by committee.

You can make the case in 2016 for at least eight different running backs ending as the best back in the league. In 2015? The top back in standard scoring leagues was Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman, selected on average in round ten. The top wide receivers are the true kings of fantasy football, and if you can get an elite one, you have to jump at the opportunity. With that in mind, here are my 2016 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Tiers.

2016 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Rankings

Tier 1: Wide Receiver Legend

1. Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh)

Skinny: The man is in a tier by himself.  You want stats?  Take a look at his last three years:

Just amazing results and consistency. That is what every drafter looks for in a first round pick. One can’t win a fantasy title with the first two picks, but it can definitely be lost. Brown provides durability, yardage, and touchdowns. There is no player at any position (even quarterback) who produced those results over the last three years. Brown set an NFL record in January with the most catches in a two season span: 265.

However, it goes deeper than just the stats. Brown and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger have a great connection, and Big Ben looks to get Brown the ball in a variety of ways: slants, deep balls, screens, or reverses. Brown is as durable as an NFL player can be, except when Vontaze Burfict is around. When you watch a Steelers’ game it feels like Todd Haley actually has his own fantasy team and started Brown. You cannot go more than one series without seeing him targeted. It is a tremendously reassuring to know that your first round pick is the offensive focal point of his team each and every week. It is for these reasons that Antonio Brown is not just the number one fantasy football wide receiver, but the number one overall fantasy football player.  

Tier 2: Round One Worthy Wide Receivers

2. Julio Jones (Atlanta)
3. Odell Beckham Jr. (NY Giants)

Skinny: These two “velcro villians” are absolute elite wide receivers. Jones was the most targeted wide receiver in 2015 (203 targets) and Beckham finished seventh including his one-game suspension in Week 16. Both are the focal points of their offenses, and the only difference between the two is the “Josh Norman effect.” Jones has three fairly weak secondaries to face in his division with Tampa Bay, New Orleans and Carolina. Norman had a good amount of success covering Jones and will now renew his bitter rivalry with Beckham as the new corner back in Washington. Jones gets more catches and yards, but had surprisingly low touchdowns (just 8 in 2015).  Beckham gets the touchdowns (12 and 13 the last two years) but isn’t quite the volume receiver Jones is.  Both are great players and would be solid round one fantasy picks in 2016. Jones is slightly ahead due to being the “X” receiver in offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan‘s offense, but it is very close.

Tier 3: Close to Round 1 selections, but with a slight concern

5. DeAndre Hopkins (Houston)
6. Jordy Nelson (Green Bay)
7. Brandin Cooks (New Orleans)
8. Allen Robinson (Jacksonville)
9. A.J. Green (Cincinnati)
10. Dez Bryant (Dallas)
11. T.Y. Hilton (Indianapolis)
12. Brandon Marshall (NY Jets)
13. Mike Evans (Tampa Bay)
14. Alshon Jeffrey (Chicago)
15. Amari Cooper (Oakland)

Skinny:  This tier contains great receivers who are not quite first round material for various reasons. Each player has an issue/concern that gives one pause. They could each end up as a top three wide receiver, but it may not be worth the risk of a first round pick to find out.

Hopkins is the major focus of the Houston Texans’ offense, but will have to adjust to Brock Osweiler. However, if he nabbed 111 receptions, 1,521 yards and 11 touchdowns with Brian Hoyer/Ryan Mallett, it’s hard to see him not improving those statistics.

The next two are total gut calls.

Nelson received 151 and 126 targets in back to back years before his injury.  He finished as the third wide receiver in standard scoring leagues in 2014. If he gets 16 games, he should be an automatic top five wideout. Cooks came on like gangbusters at the end of 2015 (37 combined fantasy points in weeks 14 and 15) and is entering year three as Drew Brees‘ top wide receiver. Factor in the lack of the aforementioned “Norman Effect” and I see the speedster taking a big leap into the top five.

Robinson was a monster last year in a weak defensive AFC South. A.J. Green is the most misleading top ten fantasy wide receiver. In a big season for the Bengals offense last season, he had single digit fantasy points seven times in the first ten weeks. I simply need more consistency to put him in my top five. Dez Bryant is a touchdown machine, but both he and quarterback Tony Romo are coming off key injuries. Hilton should have a huge bounce back year, and currently you can get him in round three of mock drafts. Marshall would be at the top of this tier if you could guarantee  Ryan Fitzpatrick is throwing to him. The uncertainty at the Jets quarterback situation keeps him at number twelve for now. Evans enters the infamous year three, and his three touchdowns of last year should get closer to his twelve touchdowns of 2014.  Alshon Jeffrey is an injury waiting to happen, but when he plays he’s a target machine. Amari Cooper may take the role of most targets away from teammate Michael Crabtree (signed a multi-year contract in the off season), and that could put himself inside the top ten by the end of the season.

Tier 4: Love if they are my WR2, hate if they are my WR1

16. Sammy Watkins (Buffalo)
17. Demaryius Thomas (Denver)
18. Kelvin Benjamin (Carolina)
19. Keenan Allen (San Diego)
20. Randall Cobb (Green Bay)
21. Julian Edelman (New England)
22. Golden Tate (Detroit)
23.  Michael Floyd (Arizona)
24.  Jarvis Landry (Miami)
25.  Jeremy Maclin (Kansas City)
26.  Doug Baldwin (Seattle)

Skinny: A week ago, before the injury news, Watkins was in the top ten. Thomas will suffer with Mark Sanchez / Paxton Lynch at quarterback, and he already had a reputation for dropping passes.  Benjamin could be a stud with Cam Newton, but needs to prove it after his injury. Keenan Allen returned to his 2013 form last year, and it the top receiver in a very potent Chargers offense. Randall Cobb can only benefit from the return of Jordy Nelson and a very easy Packers’ schedule. Edelman has proved he can always get open and should do just that, even for quarterback Jimmy Garrapolo the first four games.  How were Detroit wide receivers without Calvin Johnson? Well, Golden Tate averaged 7.7 catches, 103 yards and one touchdown when Johnson didn’t play.  Michael Floyd is emerging as Carson Palmer‘s number one receiver in Arizona, as future Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald is a year older.  Jarvis Landry is a guy to keep an eye on. He finished 2015 with the sixth most targets (more than fellow LSU alum Odell Beckham), he just needs to find the end zone more. Maclin is entrenched as the top wide receiver on a good but conservative offense. Doug Baldwin averaged roughly four touchdowns per year for his first four years, and exploded last year for 14. He should have some regression, but it will be limited as Seattle will open up the passing game more with running back uncertainty sans Marshawn Lynch.

Tier 5: Great WR2s in 2015, but Huge Questions in 2016

27. Allen Hurns (Jacksonville)
28. Erik Decker (NY Jets)
29. John Brown (Arizona)
30. Emmanuel Sanders (Denver)
31. Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona)
32. Jordan Matthews (Philadelphia)
33. Michael Crabtree (Oakland)
34.  Steve Smith Sr. (Baltimore)
35.  Donte Moncrief (Indianapolis)
36.  Vincent Jackson (Tampa Bay)

Skinny: Hurns enters his third year as wide receiver for the Jags coming off a 1,000 yard, ten touchdown season. One of the best, but not well known, stats of last year is that Allen Hurns became Cris Carter. He should always have man-to-man coverage opposite Allen Robinson. Decker is a mirror image of Hurns, except with more experience, but currently without his 2015 quarterback (Ryan Fitzpatrick). John Brown is a great third wide receiver on your team, and could be the second most targeted option for Carson Palmer this year. Emmanuel Sanders is a great player, but the quarterback uncertainty drops him to this tier. Fitzgerald is a legend and in the perfect offense, which is the opposite of Matthews who is the best receiver on what may be a bad passing situation in Philadelphia. Last year was a contract year for Crabtree so he could see a drop-off, but he was so solid with Derek Carr that he still belongs in Tier 5. Do not doubt Steve Smith, Sr. He had announced his retirement last year but will come back with a vengeance for his real final season. Moncrief should be great with a full season of a healthy Andrew Luck throwing to him. While Vincent Jackson is 33 years old, he should see touchdown increase with Mike Evans drawing the top secondary each week.  A 6’5″ target should get more than the three touchdowns he scored last season.

Tier 6: Lottery Tickets

37. Tyler Lockett (Seattle)
38. Dorial Green-Beckham (Tennessee)
39. Markus Wheaton (Pittsburgh)
40. Marvin Jones (Detroit)
41. Sammy Coates (Pittsburgh)
42. DeSean Jackson (Washington)
43. Kevin White (Chicago)
44. DeVante Parker (Miami)
45.  Kendall Wright (Tennessee)
46.  Philip Dorsett (Indianapolis)
47. Tavon Austin (Los Angeles)

Skinny: Lockett is a breakout candidate in a Seattle offense that could transition to a more explosive passing attack. DGB is a big red zone target for Marcus Mariota, and could become a great third wide receiver for your team. Wheaton will battle Sammy Coates for Martavius Bryant‘s suspended wide receiver targets. Lot of targets up for grabs in Detroit with Calvin Johnson gone, and Marvin Jones could be a second wide receiver if all breaks right. DeSean Jackson is too feast or famine, but could be out to prove his worth entering the last year of his three-year $24 million contract. Kevin White gets ranked in this tier strictly on potential, he’s basically the most advanced rookie (missed last year with injury) on my list. With Rishard Matthews now in Tennessee, I see Parker taking a step forward as the top wideout threat and red zone magnet at 6’3″. Kendall Wright is just two years removed from a 94 catch season, and DGB and Matthews should open up opportunities underneath for him. Philip Dorsett is a home run hitter, who could be deadly indoors with a healthy Luck. Tavon Austin, while not a huge volume guy, the Rams always look to get him the ball in space, which makes him valuable.

Tier 7: Nice Waiver Wire Targets

48. Stefon Diggs (Minnesota)
49. Corey Coleman (Cleveland)
50. Sterling Shepard (NY Giants)
51. Breshard Perriman (Baltimore)
52. Stevie Johnson (San Diego)
53. Torrey Smith (San Francisco)
54. Travis Benjamin (San Diego)
55. LaQuon Treadwell (Minnesota)
56.  Josh Doctson (Washington)
57.  Michael Thomas (New Orleans)
58.  Chris Hogan (New England)
59.  Mohammed Sanu (Atlanta)
60.  Terrence Williams (Dallas)

Skinny:  The final tier is reserved for players to keep an eye on after the season starts.  Don’t drafting these guys, but it the chips fall right, they could play a big part of your second half fantasy season. Stefon Diggs showed flashes last year, but just didn’t get the volume. Mike Wallace‘s departure may open up his role. Corey Coleman will get every opportunity to shine, but his success is all dependent on who is throwing him the ball. Sterling Shepard comes into a great situation with Rueben Randle now in Philadelphia, and Odell Beckham drawing all the attention to the other side of the field. Victor Cruz‘s presence (or lack thereof) will determine how much he can rise on this list. Perriman is similar to Kevin White of Chicago, but needs to separate from the myriad receivers in Baltimore. Stevie Johnson produced better in San Diego when Keenan Allen was playing and seems to be a better fit for the third wide receiver role. With Anquan Boldin‘s year up in the air, Torrey Smith sneaks on this tier for his deep ball prowess.  The bottom of this group are total opportunity plays:  Benjamin could be very good if he’s more than just a returner, Treadwell could work the slot in Minnesota, Doctson could be a factor in Washington surpassing lame ducks Garcon and Jackson, and Michael Thomas tries to be this year’s Willie Snead in New Orleans. Chris Hogan hopes to become Brandon LaFell 2.0 for the Patriots, Sanu wants to feast off the Julio Jones double teams, and Terrence Williams?  He can’t get open against man-to-man, but could be a decent third receiver when teams play zone coverage.