The seemingly endless period between the NFL Draft and the beginning of the preseason can be a boring time for many NFL fans, but it is never too early to analyze the best players in the league. This week, the Last Word On Sports NFL department will be compiling a list of the ten best players in each division heading into the 2016 season. The focus of this article is the AFC South.
Top Players of the AFC South Heading Into 2016
1. J.J. Watt, Defensive End, Houston Texans
J.J. Watt is arguably the best player in the NFL, so for him to be on top of this list is no surprise. He’s been named AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year three of the last four years (2012, 2014, and 2015). In only five seasons, Watt has accumulated 74.5 sacks, tied for 70th best all-time. Watt isn’t just an elite pass rusher, he’s also one of the best at defending the run, ranking sixth in that category according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). He’s also performed adequately on the rare occasions that he has dropped back in coverage, and has been featured on the Houston Texans offense many times. Heading into the 2016 season, J.J. Watt is the best player in the AFC South, and arguably the whole league.
2. Andrew Luck, Quarterback, Indianapolis Colts
The 2015 season wasn’t exactly the ideal year for Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck. He suffered a partially separated shoulder, lacerated kidney, and a tear in his abdomen, along with playing poorly pretty much all year. Aside from leading an epic fourth quarter comeback against the Carolina Panthers (the Colts still lost in overtime), as well as spoiling Peyton Manning’s homecoming in what would be Luck’s last game, the season was a pretty big failure. The Colts were 2-5 with Luck at the helm (they finished 8-8), and he made bad reads, overthrew his receivers constantly, and threw 12 interceptions in not even half of a season. With all that being said, if he is healthy and better prepared for the coming season, Luck can get back to playing on the elite level he was on in 2014. That season, he threw for 4,761 yards and 40 touchdowns. It will be difficult with all three other teams in the division improving, but Luck has the talent to be an NFL MVP candidate again.
3. DeAndre Hopkins, Wide Receiver, Houston Texans
When Andre Johnson ended up with the Colts during the 2015 off-season, questions rose whether DeAndre Hopkins would be able to shoulder the load. He passed with flying colors. He caught 111 passes for 1,521 yards, both of which were third best in the league, as well as catching 11 touchdowns. Hopkins did all this with four different starting quarterbacks by the names of Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, T.J. Yates, and Brandon Weeden. By putting up those numbers with arguably the worst quarterback situation in the league, Hopkins cemented his name as one of the best receivers in the league.
4. Delanie Walker, Tight End, Tennessee Titans
Before joining the Tennessee Titans in 2013, Delanie Walker was backup tight end to Vernon Davis on the San Francisco 49ers. Now getting the chance to be the man for the Titans, he has shined. The connection between him and rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota was basically the only real offensive threat on the Titans. He led all NFL tight ends with 94 receptions, and became only the ninth tight end to ever catch 90 passes in a season. Not only is he one of the most reliable pass catchers, he was arguably the most complete tight end after Rob Gronkowski last year. According to PFF, he had the fourth-best run blocking grade among tight ends, and his overall grade was second only to Gronkowski. Right now, Walker is the most important player on the Titans, and the fourth best player in the AFC South.
5. Blake Bortles, Quarterback, Jacksonville Jaguars
Blake Bortles didn’t have a great rookie season, which led to questions about whether he would be another quarterback bust for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Bortles shut all that nonsense down by throwing for a franchise record 4,428 yards and 35 touchdowns in 2015. The 35 touchdowns were second-most to New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady. Bortles still had an issue throwing interceptions last year, accumulating 18 for the season after throwing 17 in his rookie year. However, with an improved running attack, defense, and hopefully a better offensive line, Bortles might have less pressure on his shoulders to do everything for the Jaguars offense. Bortles has a bright future and already has staked a claim as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Now he just needs to back it up with an even better season than last.
6. Lamar Miller, Running Back, Houston Texans
Lamar Miller must be ecstatic after leaving the Miami Dolphins to join the Houston Texans. Although not many would think the Texans are in that much better of a situation than the Dolphins, they are. Not only will Miller have less pressure on him with wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins getting a lot of attention from the opposing defenses, the Texans also improved their offensive line to help Miller eat up defenses. By also signing one of the best run blocking guards in the league in Jeff Allen, the Texans are giving Miller a great chance to show the talent that he has. Although he has a career average of 4.6 yards per rush, Miller was never used correctly by Miami. With the Texans, Miller will get the chance to be the man, and will get plenty of looks on offense in the rushing and passing game. Miller is severely underrated because he has never been utilized correctly. This year, he will show he is one of the elite running backs in the NFL.
7. Jurrell Casey, Defensive End, Tennessee Titans
Since being drafted in 2011, defensive end Jurrell Casey has been the anchor of the Titans defense. He is excellent at both stuffing the run and rushing the passer, which is so valuable when a lot of interior defenders are only able to provide one of those services really well. He finished last year with seven sacks and also hit, sacked or hurried opposing quarterbacks a combined 48 times. At only the age of 26, Casey hasn’t hit his prime yet, and will continue to lead the Titans defense as it continues to improve.
8. Allen Robinson, Wide Receiver, Jacksonville Jaguars
DeAndre Hopkins is definitely the best receiver in the division, but Allen Robinson is trying to make a case for himself. In only his second season, he caught 80 passes for exactly 1,400 yards and also tied for the league lead of 14 touchdowns. A lot of his success could have been due to the stellar play of quarterback Blake Bortles, but the relationship goes both ways. Robinson is a great receiver that is paired with a great quarterback, who will probably be a great duo for a long time. One thing that needs to be worked on is the five dropped passes that Robinson ended up with and his percentage of targeted passes caught. Although five dropped passes doesn’t seem like very much, if Robinson wants to be included in the conversation of elite wide receivers, he needs to cut that number as much as possible. Also, among everyone that caught at least 80 passes last year, Robinson had the lowest percentage of targeted passes caught, with only 53% of passes that went his way getting converted for yards. To compare with the elite wide receivers in the league, Larry Fitzgerald caught 75.2% of his targets, Antonio Brown caught 70.5% of them, and Julio Jones had a 67% catch rate. Whatever the reason for Robinson’s low percentage, whether it is poor communication, bad route running, or inaccuracy by Bortles, it needs to be fixed for Robinson to be considered as reliable as other top wide receivers.
9. Johnathan Joseph, Cornerback, Houston Texans
Johnathan Joseph is the fourth Texan on this top ten list, which may surprise people. They all deserve to be on the list. Joseph had one of his best years as a cornerback in the league, gathering a career-high 22 passes defended, while also allowing a quarterback rating of only 73.7 when passes were thrown his way. He had the seventh best PFF grade among cornerbacks, which is skewed just a bit because of his less than stellar run defense grade. He actually had the third best coverage grade, which shows how reliable he is when guarding opposing wide receivers, especially the great ones that are in his division such as DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Robinson, T.Y. Hilton, and Allen Hurns.
10. Jack Mewhort, Guard, Indianapolis Colts
The tenth best player in the AFC South is the best offensive lineman in the division, Indianapolis Colts left guard Jack Mewhort. He didn’t allow a sack on the quarterback all season, and was graded as the ninth best guard in the league by PFF. Although it is questionable to put a guard in the top ten over other very talented players, Mewhort was that good. The Colts definitely need to improve their offensive line to help the run game and also protect Andrew Luck, but Mewhort has his spot covered. He should continue to perform at an elite level to keep defenders from touching Luck.
Honorable Mentions: Taylor Lewan, Allen Hurns, Malik Jackson
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