As the season’s second major in Paris is set to get underway, it’s time to take a look at how the seeds fared in their draw and possible projections for down the road.
2016 French Open Women’s Field: Match-ups and Predictions
Serena Williams
The American continues to be the one to beat, but has only one title this year, coming in Rome. That win should suit her well as she could see former French Open finalist Francesca Schiavone or Kristina Mladenovic in Round 3 followed by either Elina Svitolina or Ana Ivanovic in Round 4 on her way to a massive quarter-final showdown with Victoria Azarenka.
Agnieszka Radwańska
The Pole has one title in Shenzhen this year and has only made two career clay court finals, winning both. As the #2 seed, she has the luxury of avoiding Williams or Azarenka until the final, but her draw could result in severe challenges in the form of Barbora Strycova in the third round followed by either former Roland Garros finalist Sara Errani or American Sloane Stephens in the fourth round.
Angelique Kerber
The Australian Open champion has a win on the clay of Stuttgart, repeating in that event and her upset of Williams in Melbourne to claim her first major remains the highlight of the tennis season. Her draw could provide an Australian Open semi-final rematch with Johanna Konta in the Round of 16, but before that, tests could come from Camila Giorgi in Round 2 and talented, rising Russian Daria Kasatkina in Round 3.
Garbiñe Muguruza
The reigning Wimbledon finalist handed Williams her worst career loss at a major in 2014, defeating the American in Paris by a 6-2, 6-2 score. Her draws looks very good for a 4th round encounter with former champion Svetlana Kuznetsova before she likely faces Roberta Vinci or Petra Kvitova in the quarterfinals.
Victoria Azarenka
By far 2016’s best player, the Belarussian has taken home titles in Brisbane, Indian Wells (defeating Williams in the final) and Miami and has lost only two matches all season, one being to Kerber in Australia. Unfortunate to be drawn into the same quarter as Williams, her first real test should come in the fourth round where either Carla Suarez Navarro or Dominika Cibulkova will be waiting before the likely quarterfinal against Williams.
Simona Halep
A much needed title in Madrid boosted the 2014 finalist’s confidence heading into Paris and she looks good to meet Radwanska in the quarterfinals, but first will have to deal with Jelena Ostapenko in Round 3 and last year’s finalist Lucie Safarova in Round 4.
Roberta Vinci
Last year’s U.S. Open finalist is still riding high off of her historic win over Williams in New York and has a title to her credit this season, winning in St. Petersburg. She has a kind draw that should take her to Kvitova in the fourth round and either Kuznetsova or Muguruza in the quarterfinals.
Timea Bacsinszky
The feel-good story of Roland Garros last year, Bacsinszky’s position in the Top 10 proves her 2015 run was not a fluke. Coming off of an impressive win in Rabat, her fortunes for a repeat run to the last four this year will lie on whether she can navigate the tricky Monica Niculescu in round three, Venus Williams or Jelena Jankovic in round four and most likely Kerber in the quarterfinals.
Venus Williams
Back as a Top 10 seed at a major, Williams has only made one French Open final and is playing on her worst surface. She could reach the quarterfinals if she can see off Jankovic and Bacsinszky in the third and fourth round, respectively.
Petra Kvitová
The 2-time Wimbledon champion is titleless this season and switched coaches, letting David Kotzya go and hiring fellow Czech Frantisek Cermak. A semifinalist at Roland Garros in 2013, she gets a tricky opener with the very talented Danka Kovinic. If she can get through that, she’ll have to defeat Karolina Pliskova and Vinci to just reach the last eight. A deep run is vitally important for the Czech.
Lucie Safarova
Last year’s finalist pushed Williams to a third set in the championship match and could see Samantha Stosur for the third time in four weeks, having defeated the Aussie to win in Prague before giving Stosur a walkover in Madrid. Halep will likely edge her in an appealing fourth round clash.
Carla Suarez Navarro
The Spaniard has won a Premier-level tournament this year. Surprisingly, that was on the hardcourts of Doha. Now back on her favorite surface, she’ll at best get to the Round of 16 and lose to Azarenka if she gets by Cibulkova in Round 3. Probably the best player on tour without a Grand Slam semifinal appearance to her name.
Svetlana Kuznetsova
The 2009 French Open champion has had a bit of a career renaissance to reach the Top 15 again, which was bolstered by her win in Sydney and final in Miami, suffering a heavy defeat to Azarenka there. She looks good for a fourth round meeting with Muguruza, only her fellow Russian, the streaky Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, standing in her way.
Ana Ivanovic
The Serb reached the semifinals here last year, her best showing in Paris since winning the title in 2008. She won’t come close to repeating that result this year, at best a Round 4 showing before losing to Serena. She could fall one round before to Elina Svitolina, who she defeated in the quarterfinals here last year, but now has the benefit of Justine Henin on her side.
Madison Keys
Clay has never been the American’s favorite surface where her power gets blunted by the dirt, but she did reach the final in Rome, defeating Muguruza in the semifinals before being knocked off by Serena in the final. Here, she should get to the fourth round against Kerber if she can slip by Konta in the Round of 32.
Sara Errani
Like Suarez Navarro, she also has a Premier-level title on the Middle Eastern hardcourts, winning Dubai. Also like the Spaniard, she’s back on her favorite surface. Having reached the final in 2012 and semifinals in 2013, she is always a threat to go deep here and her draw provides her a path to the Round of 16 against Radwanska if she can see off Stephens in the third round.
Karolina Pliskova
The Czech has had a disappointing season and is still awaiting her breakthrough in a major. She won’t get it here as she will most likely fall to Kvitova in Round 3 or Vinci in Round 4.
Elina Svitolina
Now working with Justine Henin, the Ukranian has a win in Kuala Lumpur and an opportunity to see Serena in the Round of 16, but she has to avenge her 2015 quarterfinal loss to Ivanovic in the Round of 32 first.
Sloane Stephens
The tour’s leading title winner with three (Auckland, Acapulco and Charleston), the American has rediscovered some of her form that saw her reach the semifinals in Melbourne in 2013. A tricky draw awaits with the young Russian Margarita Gasparyan in the opening round, Errani in the third round and Radwanska in the fourth round if she makes it that far.
Johanna Konta
Her first major as a seeded player and first Slam since her breakthrough semifinal run in Melbourne. Not a great clay court player, the Brit has an opportunity to set up another match with Kerber at a Slam if she can slip past Keys.
Samantha Stosur
The Aussie was runner-up at Roland Garros to Francesca Schiavone in 2010 and reached the final in Prague, losing to Safarova. If the Czech doesn’t end her run in Round 3, Halep will in Round 4.
Dominika Cibulková
The Slovak reached the last four in Paris in 2009 and was an Acapulco finalist this year. Always a threat when she’s on, her tournament will end in either the Round of 32 vs Suarez Navarro or the Round of 16 vs Azarenka.
Jelena Janković
The Serb caused a major shock when she upset Kvitová at Wimbledon last year. Her section is one of opportunity, but Venus in Round 3 and Bacsinszky in Round 4 will be stern tests.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
The Russian is still as enigmatic as ever and Kuznetsova will make her fortnight a short one when she eliminates her in the third round.
Irina-Camelia Begu
The solid, steady Romanian handed Azarenka one of her two losses on the season on her way to the Rome semifinals. If she upsets Vinci in the Round of 32, Kvitová will be too much for her in the Round of 16.
Kristina Mladenovic
The Frenchwoman took Vinci to the wire in the U.S. Open quarterfinals and faces a tricky test right off the bat in 2010 champion Schiavone. Her farthest progression will be to the third round, where she’ll lose to Serena.
Ekaterina Makarova
The Russian is severely out of form and likely to see the same fate she saw in Rome: a loss to Muguruza, this one in Round 3.
Andrea Petkovic
The 2014 French Open semifinalist has done nothing of note this season and it’ll likely remain that way when she loses to Azarenka in the third round.
Daria Kasatkina
The Russian is a rising young star and if she were in another part of the draw, a deep, deep run would be a distinct possibility, but she got stuck with Kerber in Round 3. A player to watch for the future.
Barbora Strýcová
A finalist to Errani in Dubai, she could see the Italian again in the second week if she knocks off Radwańska in the third round. Although not likely, the Czech is a dangerous player.
Monica Niculescu:
The Romanian is the epitome of tricky, but her draw is rife with obstacles: Pauline Parmentier in Round 1, Bogota champion Irina Falconi in Round 2 and Bacsinszky in Round 3, a loss to the Swiss the likeliest outcome.
Jelena Ostapenko
The Latvian received the final seed when Belinda Bencic and Caroline Wozniacki withdrew. Big hitting Naomi Osaka awaits in the opening round, Mirjana Lučić-Baroni could be the Doha finalist’s Round 2 opponent and Halep is her probable Round 3 foe. The Romanian is a safe bet to see Ostapenko off, but like Kasatkina, she is a player to watch out for in the coming years.
Best first-round matchups
Gasparyan vs Stephens: The Russian and her beautiful one-handed backhand take on the resurgent American in a likely three-set battle.
Kovinić vs Kvitová: The Czech is up-and-down and a bad day at the office could see Kovinić pull the upset.
Schiavone vs Mladenovic: Rio champion this year, the 2010 winner could conjure up one more magic moment against the Frenchwoman despite being on Mladenovic’s turf.
Laura Siegemund vs Eugenie Bouchard The Canadian is on the upswing, but gets a rough opener against the Stuttgart finalist.
2016 French Open Predictions:
Semifinals
Azarenka def. Kerber: The former #1 had never lost to the German before Melbourne, which featured a Kerber comeback from a 5-1 second set deficit. Azarenka will get her revenge.
Muguruza def. Halep: The Madrid title shows the Romanian is back to being a serious threat on clay, but Muguruza will overpower her in a close contest.
Final
Azarenka def. Muguruza: in what could be a three-set classic, the two-time major champion will add a third Slam to her collection after holding off the Spaniard, who won’t be as nervous as she was at Wimbledon last year.
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