AHL Conference Finals Previews are part of Last Word On Sports continuing coverage of the AHL playoffs. The predictions have been solid thus far: three of four winners in the first round match-ups in the East and in the West were correct, and all four of the second round winners were called as well.
AHL Conference Finals Preview – The West
Due to the AHL’s unbalanced schedules, the Lake Erie Monsters and Ontario Reign did not face each other in the regular season despite being in the same conference. Game 1 in the Western Conference Finals could be a slow one as the teams try to figure out just how accurate the advanced scouting reports were.
The Lake Erie Monsters are coming into the conference finals with their young players leading the way. Zach Werenski, who a few months ago was at the World Junior Championships and playing for the University of Michigan, is now the Monsters leading postseason scorer with four goals and six assists in nine games. Werenski is logging significant minutes already for Lake Erie and his adjustment to the AHL speed and size took less time than anyone could have imagined.
The forwards are a talented bunch led in scoring by the dependable Josh Anderson and the surprising duo of Lukas Sedlak and Alex Broadhurst, both of whom have stepped up in the playoffs to give Lake Erie additional scoring depth. The future is bright for the big club with Sonny Milano, Daniel Zaar, and Oliver Bjorkstrand all playing vital roles in the Monsters playoff push and gaining valuable experience as the stakes continue to rise. On the other side, Kerby Rychel only has a goal and an assist in nine games. If he can get into gear and produce as he did during the regular season, it could tip the balance of the series.
In goal, Joonas Korpisalo’s solid regular season in for the Monsters thus far has not translated to the playoffs, with a sub-.900 save percentage and giving up nearly three goals per game. The Reign are not an offensive powerhouse but have been able to score timely goals. Korpisalo will need to be better if the Monsters hope to go any further in the playoffs.
The Reign were again sound throughout their line-up in Round 2 and did not muddle with the recipe that has been so successful for them this season. The Reign dispatched the San Diego Gulls in five close games but received scoring from all areas of the line-up led by Nic Dowd with three goal and five assists. Adrian Kempe, Justin Auger, Kevin Gravel, and Michael Mersch all have five points thus far, illustrating the depth Ontario has had while only playing in nine games through two rounds. Ontario has relied heavily on steady team defense, timely goal scoring and a heaping dose of Peter Budaj. Budaj had another excellent series and his 1.73 goals-against average and .918 save percentage is getting the job done against two hated in-state rivals.
Against Lake Erie, the depth of the Reign will be needed. The talent level among the forwards is much higher than what Ontario has faced in the first two rounds, and the Monsters boast a power play that is converting at a 28.6% clip. Ontario is the least penalized team of the four remaining squads and will need to carry that discipline through the series. But Mersch thinks the key to handling the Monsters power play lies with the Reign.
The Reign are not the swiftest team, and positioning of the defense will be interesting to watch how they fare against the speedy and talented Monsters forwards.
The Reign and Monsters will be close series. A shot off the post, a waived off goal, or lucky bounce in overtime could decide it all. What the Reign must guard against is a shootout with Lake Erie. If Ontario can keep the Monsters in check, stay out of penalty trouble and play within their system, the Reign should move on.
Last Word On the Series: Reign in seven games.
AHL Conference Finals Preview – The East
The Hershey Bears and the Toronto Marlies both needed seven games to escape the second round and each won Game 7 by a single goal. Hershey and Toronto faced each other twice during the AHL’s regular season, with both teams going 1-1.
For Hershey, Jakub Vrana continues to dazzle in his first year in North America. Vrana and AHL journeyman Carter Camper both have a team-leading four goals and five assists in twelve games. Chris Bourque, the AHL’s leading scorer during the regular season, has seven points of his own. The teams defensive leader veteran Aaron Ness is the anchor of the Bears blueline along with three promising rookies: Madison Bowey, Christian Djoos, and Tyler Lewington. Bears goaltender Justin Peters has played exceedingly well for Hershey and is the second hot goalie the Marlies have faced. Peters is allowing 1.73 goals per game and is the owner of an impressive .935 save percentage. Peters also has recorded two shutouts, one in each round thus far, but shutting out the Marlies will be another matter entirely. Toronto is the top scoring team in the AHL playoffs with 3.8 goals per contest and presents a mix of speed and skill that Hershey will have difficulty handling in a seven game series. The Bears defense along with Peters will be tested early and often.
Shifting the focus north, Marlies head coach Sheldon Keefe continues to start goalie Antoine Bibeau despite the superior performances of Garrett Sparks. Sparks played 146 minutes of hockey in this postseason and only allowed two goals on 70 shots. Sparks lost Game 1 against the Albany Devils in a tight 2-1 contest and not seen the ice since. Antoine Bibeau looks to be the choice, and his playoff stats are nearly identical to his 40 starts during the year. Perhaps that consistency is what Keefe is seeing.
The Marlies are getting their points, but not from the players you would think. After being lead by defenseman T.J. Brennen in regular season scoring, Connor Carrick’s 14 points lead Toronto in the postseason. While the points are coming from Connor Brown, Josh Leivo, and Mark Arcobello (all sitting at eight points apiece), the effort of blue-chip prospect William Nylander has come into the crosshairs of Keefe. Keefe told the Toronto Star that Nylander was not playing well away from the puck and simply not the effort that is expected of the Leafs top forward prospect. Nylander didn’t exactly answer the call but did record an assist in the pivotal Game 7 victory. The talent for the Marlies is there, but as the Albany Devils showed in the second round, a team playing well as a unit can take the talented Marlies off their game.
The Marlies again run into a team that is getting solid goaltending and skates very well as a defensive unit. With Nylander sputtering on offense, there could be trouble brewing in Toronto. The Bears defense is young but has played well thus far. However, the overall talent level of the Marlies should prove to be the difference.
Last Word on the Series: Marlies in 6
