2016 Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings

It’s time to take a closer look at my 2016 Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings. The role of the running back in fantasy football has dramatically changed over the last ten years. In 2006, you would be hard pressed to find more than two first round fantasy football draft picks that were not running backs. Take a quick look at a side by side comparison of the statistics from the top ten fantasy running backs in 2006 and 2016 from  cbssports.com:

Running backs are now less dominant in fantasy football. The top back in 2006 (LaDainian Tomlinson) scored over 185 more points than the top back in 2015 (Devonta Freeman). The tenth running back in 2006 (Joseph Addai) scored twenty one more points than last year’s tenth back (Latavius Murray). The average of the top ten running backs was 91.1 points higher. The most interesting stat to me is the standard deviation, which shows just how important a role those top backs could play in your fantasy title chances. The spread in 2016 is much closer together. So, given this dramatic shift in point values, just how should you prepare for this year’s draft at running back position? Let’s break it down.

2016 Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings

Tier 1: True Workhorses Worthy of a Round 1 Selection

1. Le’Veon Bell (Pittsburgh)
2. Adrian Peterson (Minnesota)
3. Todd Gurley (Los Angeles)
4. Jamaal Charles (Kansas City)

Skinny: These four guys are automatic Round 1 selections in any format. All are three down running backs (Gurley even had 21 catches as a rookie), and each is the focal point of their respective teams’ offense. Bell is entering a contract year, and will get even more passing looks with Martavius Bryant suspended for the year.  Injury concerns are clear with Bell and Charles, but both are star running backs that have shown their greatness in the past. If you pick a running back in the first round of your fantasy draft, you want a 1,500 total yard and double digit touchdown year. These four backs, barring injury, are locks to get you those numbers.

Tier 2: Almost Tier 1, just a slight notch below

5. LeSean McCoy (Buffalo)
6. Devonta Freeman (Atlanta)
7. Eddie Lacy (Green Bay)
8. David Johnson (Arizona)
9. Doug Martin (Tampa Bay)
10. Mark Ingram (New Orleans)

Skinny:  These five are very close to Tier 1, but they all have legitimate backups that could cut into their production. If you look at McCoy’s career, he is certainly a Tier 1 running back. But Karlos Williams is like that fly that you just can’t get rid of. Freeman was the number one running back in fantasy last year, but Tevin Coleman’s injury was partially responsible for that. Lacy lost his job to Starks, but I see a huge bounce back year in 2016. Johnson was outstanding from Weeks 11-17 (seven touchdowns), but his 581 rushing yards make me wonder if he’s a true three down back, especially with Chris Johnson/Andre Ellington in the shadows. Doug Martin was the number two rusher in the NFL, but he had trouble finding the end zone in 2015. Charles Sims will also likely keep him off the field on third downs. Ingram was a top three fantasy running back (50 receptions) until he got hurt, but I suspect Hightower’s end of season push will cut into his work a bit.

Tier 3: Solid RB1 choices, but I need to “see it” before they are elite

11. Lamar Miller (Houston)
12. Latavius Murray (Oakland)
13. C.J. Anderson (Denver)
14. Thomas Rawls (Seattle)
15. Jeremy Hill (Cincinnati)
16. Ezekiel Elliott (Dallas)
17. Carlos Hyde (San Francisco)

Skinny: Miller is in a fantastic situation in Houston. Arian Foster averaged 21.25 touches (rotogrinder.com) per game in Bill O’Brien’s offense last year. He may not be Foster in ability, but Miller is clearly a three down back in a run heavy offense. Murray is running behind a mammoth offensive line, and has shown flashes of top running back talent. C.J. Anderson is the best back in Denver, but I still worry about Hillman and rookie Devontae Booker stealing work. I was very high on Thomas Rawls until the Seahawks took three running backs in the draft. However, out of everyone in this tier, Rawls showed the most promise when given the opportunity in 2015. Will the real Jeremy Hill please stand up? I think his sophomore slump is over, and he regains the 1,339 total yard form from 2014. The nod to Carlos Hyde is a belief in Chip Kelly and the zone blocking scheme familiarity that Hyde played in at Ohio State.

Tier 4: Solid RB2 choices: Goal line or exceptional pass catchers

18. Ryan Mathews (Philadephia)
19. Matt Jones (Washington)
20. Jonathan Stewart (Carolina)
21. Melvin Gordon (San Diego)
22. Jay Ajayi (Miami)
23. Jeremy Langord (Chicago)
24. Matt Forte (NY Jets)
25. Chris Ivory (Jacksonville)
26. Dion Lewis (New England)

Skinny: Mathews and Jones both lost their first and second down competition in the off season (DeMarco Murray and Alfred Morris respectively), so they have the best opportunities. If Stewart stays healthy he could move way up the list, but Cam Newton and Mike Tolbert always seem to steal touchdowns. The fantasy community is very cautious with Jay Ajayi, but unless rookie Kenyon Drake comes along quickly, he should be the goal line back. Langford should inherit the workhorse role from the departed Forte, and he performed well as his backup last year. Forte’s age is an issue (31 in December), as is Bilal Powell’s big contract. Ivory should be able to give Jacksonville the goal line touchdowns T.J. Yeldon failed to produce. And Dion Lewis was the best running back in New England, with his shifty pass catching moves a nightmare for defenders. If Tom Brady’s suspension is reduced, he moves up this list quickly.

Tier 5: Third Down Studs, “One Injury Away” Guys, and Plodders

27. Danny Woodhead (San Diego)
28. Frank Gore (Indianapolis)
29. DeMarco Murray (Tennessee)
30. Charles Sims (Tampa Bay)
31. Karlos Williams (Buffalo)
32. Giovanni Bernard (Cincinnati)
33. Ameer Abdullah (Detroit)

Skinny: Woodhead is a solid running back choice in any format. In 2015, he was the #11 running back in standard leagues and #10 in PPR. Gore certainly seems focused, and is a great all around back (albeit 33 years old) in an explosive situation. Sims and Williams are great handcuffs, and remain just one injury away from being RB1 material. Bernard is such a big part of the Bengals’ offense, and is in a contract year. Abdullah is still the main guy in Detroit, but needs to hold onto the football more to be most effective.

Tier 6: You could make an argument…

34. Rashad Jennings (NY Giants)
35. T.J. Yeldon (Jacksonville)
36. Duke Johnson (Cleveland)
37. Tevin Coleman (Atlanta)
38. Javorius Allen (Baltimore)
39. Kenneth Dixon (Baltimore)
40. LeGarrette Blount (New England)
41. Derrick Henry (Tennessee)

Skinny: Jennings could be much higher on this list if the Giants use him like they did at the end of the year. When he got carries, he produced. The problem is, that’s a very crowded Giants’ backfield right now with Vereen, Darkwa and Andre Williams. Yeldon will spell Ivory, who is always good for an injury at some point. Duke Johnson may take on a Dion Lewis-like role with new offensive coordinator Hue Jackson at the controls. Coleman will definitely be a part of the Falcons’ offense, and could really hurt Freeman’s productivity. Somebody will be good on Baltimore, I’m just not sure who at the moment. Training camp will prioritize Allen or Dixon. Blount is the short yardage guy in New England, but no Brady for four games will hurt. Henry? Ehh. With Murray there, probably just an insurance policy, but Mathews got a ton of touches behind him in Philadelphia last year.

Tier 7: Lottery Tickets

42. Devontae Booker (Denver)
43. Paul Perkins (NY Giants)
44. Isaiah Crowell (Cleveland)
45. Jordan Howard (Chicago)
46. DeAngelo Williams (Pittsburgh)
47. Theo Riddick (Detroit)
48. Bilal Powell (NY Jets)
49. Darren McFadden (Dallas)

Skinny: Booker is starting to gain steam in fantasy previews. But if Hillman is still the backup come September, this would really be a stretch. Perkins could beat out mediocrity in the Meadowlands. Crowell would be higher, but Hue Jackson may use Duke more in a passing offense. Lankford isn’t exactly Walter Payton, so Howard could get a good amount of time. D’Angelo is a top five running back if Bell gets hurt, but at 33 years old he may be limited as well. Riddick is a great third down guy, as is Bilal Powell. And if my Ezekiel Elliott predictions hold, McFadden is a nice late round pickup that can be used in the right matchups.

Tier 8: Waiver Wire Pickup Extraordinaires

50. Jerick McKinnon (Minnesota)
51. Arian Foster (Houston)
52. C.J. Prosise (Seattle)
53. Cameron Artis-Payne (Carolina)
54. Darren Sproles (Philadephia)
55. Chris Johnson (Arizona)
56. Justin Forsett (Baltimore)
57. Tim Hightower (New Orleans)
58. Kenyan Drake (Miami)
59. DeAndre Washington (Oakland)
60. Andre Ellington (Arizona)

Skinny: McKinnon is a must for Peterson owners. If you want to block your friends, grab him and look to trade. Foster rumors are flying, but he hasn’t found a landing spot yet. If he does land, he vaults to the top ten easily. Prosise is an exciting rookie, along with Drake and Washington. Artis-Payne is viable as a Stewart handcuff, and Sproles and Chris Johnson just keep plugging along despite being on the wrong side of 30 years old. Forsett could still be a main part of the Ravens offense, but I think his best years are behind him. Hightower led me to a fantasy title last year, but I still think he only spells Ingram. And Andre Ellington was the starter in Arizona, but that was before the Johnsons took his place last year.