The month of May signals it is time for my first round of yearly Fantasy Football rankings. I will start at the most important position: quarterback. No matter which league format you compete in, having good quarterback production is essential for a great season. It doesn’t need to be a top quarterback, but your weekly production at the position needs to perform like one. The historic advice is to always wait until the later rounds to draft a quarterback. While I agree with this advice, please also realize that in the 2015 Fantasy season there was a 6.75 ppg difference in the top quarterback (Cam Newton) and number ten (Kirk Cousins). This is significant variance to take into account when drafting your team. Here are my early quarterback rankings heading into the 2016 Fantasy Football season (all data provided by cbssports.com):
Click here for Numbers 1-10.
Click here for Numbers 11-20.
2016 Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings Part 3
21. Matt Stafford (Detroit)
Good: #9 QB (2015) 353 points; #6 (2013) 324 points; #11 QB (2012) 300 points
Bad: #15 (2014) 282 points;
Schedule: NFC East, AFC South, LA Rams, at New Orleans
Skinny: Not having Calvin Johnson is going to dramatically change things in Detroit. A decent schedule should help, but it’s Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, and Eric “Dropsies” Ebron. I just think there will be an adjustment period, and head coach Jim Caldwell hasn’t shown me anything to make me think he’ll transition Stafford well. This is a team that fired three offensive coaches mid season. And Stafford is a mistake prone quarterback who was often bailed out by Calvin in jump ball situations. I would much rather look elsewhere in 2016.
22. Ryan Tannehill (Miami)
Good: #11 QB (2014) 318 points;
Bad: #17 QB (2015) 304 points; #16 QB (2013) 268 points; #24 QB (2012) 193 points
Schedule: AFC North, NFC West, Tennessee, at Baltimore
Skinny: Nice guy, bad schedule. He has solid weapons around him but throws a bad deep ball. You’re looking at vegetable lasagna here with Tannehill. New coach Adam Gase should help put him in quality positions, but a first year head coach in a tough defensive division with a questionable quarterback is a bad mix. Seven games of 20+ fantasy points is solid, but most of those came in warm weather early in the season. Wide receiver Jarvis Landry is fantastic, and Devontae Parker should be better in year two. But the Dolphins seem to be the worst team in the division yet again. Throw in a very tough schedule: at Seattle, at New England, at Cincinnati, and two cross country trips on back to back weeks to San Diego and Los Angeles and I say “no thank you” to young Ryan. Let’s give Gase a year to adjust and maybe revisit this in 2017.
23. Ryan Fitzpatrick (NY Jets)
Good: #11 QB (2015) 347 points; #22 QB (2014: Houston 11 games) 200 points;
Bad: #25 QB (2013: Tennessee 10 games) 181 points; #21 QB (2012: Buffalo) 246 points
Schedule: AFC North, NFC West, LA Rams, at San Francisco
Skinny: It was a tremendous year in 2015 for the Harvard graduate, even with having to miss most of the Week 8 game against Oakland due to injury. He played through a left thumb injury and finished the year as the 11th ranked quarterback in standard scoring formats. Fitzpatrick has great wide receivers in Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, but lost running back workhouse Chris Ivory. The strong early running game led to a balanced Jets attack and kept Fitzpatrick from feeling he had to do too much. Running back Matt Forte should help with catches out of the backfield and Bilal Powell has always excelled on third down. Look at the numbers, I just don’t see Fitzpatrick replicating his success. He is still currently holding out for a deal and I don’t see this ending well. He’s always good for the monster game once a year (2015 Week 12: 37 points; 2014 Week 13: 51 points; 2013 Week 15: 40 points, 2012 Week 4: 35 points). But good luck trying to figure out when that will be.
24. Joe Flacco (Baltimore)
Good: #13 QB (2014) 304 points;
Bad: #15 QB (2012) 270 points, #26 (2015: 10 games played) 189 points; #19 QB (2013) 229 points
Schedule: AFC East, NFC East, Oakland, at Jacksonville
Skinny: I really like Flacco as a guy you could potentially get great value for in the absolute last round. He has a big arm, is durable, and has more weapons than you realize. The Ravens recognize they need to improve the offense and are clearly focused on doing so. No one is a bigger Steve Smith Sr. fan than me, even though he’s 36 years old. Wide receiver Kamar Aiken was solid, and Crockett Gilmore provided a big red zone target in his rookie campaign. Flacco is coming off of knee surgery, his first major injury in his career, but the Ravens went out and got him new weapon in veteran Mike Wallace, fourth round draft pick wide receiver Chris Moore of Cincinnati, and versatile sixth round pick Keenan Reynolds of Navy. The running back group is strong with veteran Justin Forsett, second year running back Buck Allen, and rookie running back Kenneth Dixon of Louisiana Tech. If you are looking to draft in the Tannehill, Stafford range, why not just wait and pick Flacco? He’s only 31 years old, is well coached, and a guy everyone will forget about come draft day.
25. Alex Smith (Kansas City)
Good: #15 QB (2015) 310 points;
Bad: #19 QB (2014) 241 points, #15 (2013) 284 points; #30 QB (2012: 8 games) 134 points
Schedule: AFC South, NFC South, NY Jets, at Pittsburgh
Skinny: The reason fantasy football analysts shy away from Alex Smith is because of the phrase “game manager.” That being said, the numbers certainly support the idea that in fantasy football he is much more than that. In 2015 he had seven games of 20+ fantasy points or higher, and twelve games of 15+ fantasy points or higher. Smith has a high floor. Andy Reid personally selected him as the Chiefs quarterback because of his ability to avoid turnovers. The underrated part of Smith is his 450 yard rushing average over the last two years. I view him as the ultimate “bye week replacement” quarterback, especially in the strong home field advantage that is Arrowhead Stadium. He is not a guy you target on draft day, but certainly someone you should keep your eye if you need a injury replacement or bye week filler.
26. Jay Cutler (Chicago)
Good: None
Bad: #21 QB (2015) 268 points; #14 QB (2014) 298 points; #22 QB (2013: 10 games) 192 points; #23 QB (2012: 13 games)
Schedule: NFC East, AFC South, San Fran, at Tampa Bay
Skinny: Last year was a really bad year for Cutler, especially when you realize he stayed healthy for 14 1/2 games. Losing a player the caliber of Matt Forte cannot help, and John Fox certainly wants to keep running the ball. Cutler is in a tough division as they are clearly worse than Green Bay and Minnesota. He has a great arm, a great wide receiver in Jeffrey, but is invariably hurt and now in a run first offense. The main reason I can’t put him higher is because the Bears signed Brian Hoyer as his backup. I am not even sure Cutler finishes the year as the starter. I just can’t see a reason to put him any higher than #26 in my rankings. He looks great when he throws it, but at 33 years old you are what you are. For fantasy purposes, Jay Cutler is not a good quarterback.
27. Teddy Bridgewater (Minnesota)
Good: None
Bad: #24 QB (2015) 228 points; #23 (2014: 13 games) 194 points
Schedule: NFC East, AFC South, Arizona, at Carolina
Skinny: Bridgewater is very young at only 23 years old. Yet this will be his third year as a starting NFL quarterback. I thought he would take the leap forward last year, but was very disappointed. The move back indoors should help him in the late winter, where he garnered the nickname “Teddy Two Gloves.” The Vikings are a run first offense, but that should open up some opportunities in the passing game. Five games of single digit scoring in 2015 just isn’t good enough, and his modest rushing yardage total of 200 yards should be closer to Alex Smith’s 400 yards plus. Whether you are in a ten or 12 team league, there is simply no reason to put Bridgewater on your fantasy roster.
28. Paxton Lynch (Denver)
Good: None
Bad: None
Schedule: AFC South, NFC South, New England, at Cincinnati
Skinny: You could call this the “Paxton Sanchez” spot. It’s hard to put the starting quarterback on the defending Super Bowl champions any lower. If Brock Osweiler stumbles in Houston, then this spot should move dramatically up. Lynch potentially steps into the following: great offensive line, solid running game, star wide receivers, a great defense and a solid home field advantage. He can’t be Alex Smith, or at least close? This area of players will not be drafted in almost all of your leagues, so you are simply looking at potential. While rookie quarterbacks almost always struggle, there’s upside in this spot that others players here do not have.
29. Robert Griffin III (Cleveland)
Good: #6 QB (2012) 344 points
Bad: #37 QB (2015) 82 points; #18 QB (2013) 230 points;
Schedule: AFC East, NFC East, San Diego, at Titans,
Skinny: Boy, 2012 was a long time ago, huh? There is a part of me that believes in Hue Jackson, especially after what he did to help Andy Dalton in Cincinnati. But similar to Cutler, I’m just not sure Griffin will be the Browns’ quarterback all year. Josh McCown could easily be in this spot, and I would try to feel slightly optimistic for him as well. Maybe rookie wide receiver Corey Coleman out of Baylor could form a deep ball connection with Griffin. I know I’m reaching here, but at this area of the quarterback rankings you are looking for potential. And while I want to believe in the new Griffin/Jackson relationship, the rugged AFC North provides no easy path.
30. Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco)
Good: #14 (2013) 289 points; #26 (2012 8 games) 178 points.
Bad:#31 (2015) 121 points; #16 (2014) 272 points;
Schedule: NFC South, AFC East, Dallas, at Chicago
Skinny: Look at the success Chip Kelly had with Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez. It is really unreasonable to assume Kaepernick will improve? The reason he isn’t lower is because of the potential. I could conceivably see a scenario where Kelly turns him around. Likely? No. But possible. He’s a true dual threat who was playing in the Super Bowl not too long ago. At only 28 years old, and still having a strong arm, Kaepernick could provide some quality fantasy moments in the right matchup. The biggest issue with Kaepernick may be the lack of weapons. Wide receiver Anquan Boldin may not be back, Torrey Smith is average, and rookie WR Aaron Burbridge looks promising but is still a rookie. The positive is that running back Carlos Hyde should keep the defense honest behind a strong offensive line. If you have a large bench, maybe stash Kaepernick and pray that Kelly resurrects the 2012 or even 2013 version.
31. Jared Goff (L.A. Rams)
Good: None
Bad: None
Schedule: NFC South, AFC East, NY Giants, at Detroit
Skinny: Rookie quarterbacks are difficult to trust, but it’s better to be unknown than known poorly. Goff will be given the keys to the car immediately, and his biggest weapon is running back Todd Gurley right behind him. The Rams’ offense will most mirror Kansas City, and Goff will be expected to make short, accurate throws. This is a solid game plan for year one success. Wide receiver Tavon Austin can take those short throws the distance, and rookie wide receiver Pharoh Cooper has great potential. If you are around this area, why not take a flyer on Goff? Especially, of course, in dynasty leagues.
32. Sam Bradford (Philadelphia)
Good: None
Bad: #23 (2015) 232 points; #18 QB (2012) 259
Schedule: AFC North, NFC North, Atlanta, at Seattle
Skinny: I don’t see the argument in a brittle quarterback with a new head coach that is currently pouting about his playing time. Bradford’s preseason brought so much promise last year, and it made sense given how Chip Kelly had turned Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez into viable fantasy starters. Unless Bradford performs perfectly, the fickle Philadephia fan base will be calling for Carson Wentz immediately. One could argue that the opening day quarterback could be Chase Daniel. What a mess! And the reason Bradford is last? At least Lynch and Goff have the potential to succeed. Bradford is what he is: mediocre at best.
Main Photo: DETROIT MI – NOVEMBER 22: Matthew Stafford #9 of the Detroit Lions rolls out to pass during the third quarter of the game against the Oakland Raiders on November 22, 2015 at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. The Lions defeated the Raiders 18-13. (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)
