The month of May signals it is time for my first round of yearly Fantasy Football rankings. I will start at the most important position: quarterback. No matter which league format you compete in, having good quarterback production is essential for a great season. It doesn’t need to be a top quarterback, but your weekly production at the position needs to perform like one. The historic advice is to always wait until the later rounds to draft a quarterback. While I agree with this advice, please also realize that in the 2015 Fantasy season there was a 6.75 ppg difference in the #1 QB (Newton) and the #10 QB (Cousins). This is significant variance to take into account when drafting your team. Here are my early QB rankings heading into the 2016 Fantasy Football season (all data provided by cbssports.com):
2016 Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings Part 2
11. Eli Manning (NY Giants)
Good: #8 QB (2015) 357 points (12 games); #10 QB (2014) 320 points; #12 (2012) 291 points
Bad: #21 QB (2013) 196 points; #14(2012) 273
Schedule: AFC North, NFC North, New Orleans at LA Rams
Skinny: The best thing about Eli Manning is that he never gets hurt. He’s the fantasy football quarterback ironman. The bad thing is he usually has huge variance in his fantasy point performances. In 2015? Four games of 12 fantasy points or less. Those performances almost always mean a loss for your fantasy team, but having Odell Beckham, Jr. will always make Manning a viable option for your team. Victor Cruz looks to be back to full strength, and departed wide receiver Rueben Randle (Philadelphia) should be easily replaced by rookie Sterling Shepard of Oklahoma. Rookie running back Paul Perkins of UCLA brings a ton of “you got that way, I go THIS way” moves to an already crowded backfield. Look for new head coach Ben McAdoo to get Shane Vereen to get involved more as well. Overall, I see Eli Manning as Mr. Steady, and around this area of the rankings, that is going to trump unproven potential.
12. Tom Brady (New England)
Good: #2 QB (2015) 414 points (12 games); #7 QB (2014) 334 points; #12 (2013) 291 points; #3 QB (2012) 399 points
Bad:
Schedule: AFC North, NFC West, Houston, at Denver
Skinny: An explanation is needed here clearly. Tom Brady is great at football. Tom Brady is great at fantasy football. I will assume, however, most of the leagues you play in have a 14 or even 13 week schedule. At this point, Brady will miss five (four games and a bye) of those games. That’s 35-38% of your season. Plus, he’s missing three home games. I just can’t assume when he comes back in Week 5 that he’s going to light it up like he has in the past, (although that week he is at Cleveland so possibly). Their offensive line had some rough patches last year, especially in the biggest game of the year, so Bill Belichick brought in retired coach Dante Scarnecchia to help solidify the protection. Brady has a tough schedule with Seattle (Week 10), at Jets (Week 12), and even at Denver (Week 15) for the fantasy playoffs. When it comes to projections, I tell people all the time: go deeper. Is Tom Brady a top fantasy quarterback? Not in 2016.
13. Tony Romo (Dallas)
Good: #8 QB (2014) 324 points; #8 QB (2013) 312 points; #8 QB (2012) 326 points;
Bad: #41 QB (2015) 50 points (2 games)
Schedule: AFC North, NFC North,Tampa Bay, at San Francisco
Skinny: I vacillate on Tony Romo’s ranking. Romo just turned 36 years old in April. He still takes center behind the best offensive line in football. He’s had that for a while, yet is still injury prone. When Romo plays a full season he is an absolute top ten fantasy quarterback. You already know my thoughts on Ezekiel Elliott as a rookie running back in his backfield, but running backs Darren McFadden and Alfred Morris do provide quality depth. If you guaranteed 16 games for Romo, his floor is probably top eight. But herniated discs and multiple collarbone injuries give me pause. No quarterback will be better protected, so he’ll have every opportunity to succeed. My feeling about Romo and Brady is almost exactly the same. Solid options, but not top five worthy.
14. Tyrod Taylor (Buffalo)
Good: #16 QB (2015) 309 points (14 games)
Bad: None
Schedule: AFC North, NFC West, Jacksonville, at Oakland
Skinny: This could very well be Tyrod’s leap year. He is 26 years old, confident in the system, in year two with a stable coaching staff, still has wide receiver Sammy Watkins…in short, it’s time to make “that jump.” A really underrated attraction for selecting Taylor as your quarterback are Weeks 12-16. Four home games in five week including three straight home games vs. Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Miami. That is a nice “under the radar” stretch for a quarterback you can probably get in the eighth round or later. I really like the 568 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns. If Taylor just had 20 points in each of the two games he missed, he would’ve been in the top ten among quarterbacks in his first full year as a starter. Very impressive. If I miss out on the top quarterbacks, Tyrod Taylor is definitely a guy I am targeting.
15. Matt Ryan (Atlanta)
Good: #9 QB (2014) 323 points; #13 (2013) 290 points; #5 QB (2012) 351 points
Bad: #19 QB (2015) 275 points;
Schedule: AFC West, NFC West, Green Bay, at Philly
Skinny: I always feel the same way at the end of the NFL season: Matt Ryan should have been better. He has superior weapons, solid running backs, and plays in a dome. He’s suffered the last two years from poor passing touchdown output (28 TDs and 21 TDs respectively), yet I have no idea why. I could see him get to the 30 touchdown range, and that would move him into the top ten in my rankings. Much like Eli, he’s also very durable, plus he has this guy. But unlike many of those quarterbacks listed above him, he never runs. Matt Ryan to me is a decent quarterback you settle on that you can play especially in good home matchups.
16. Kirk Cousins (Washington)
Good: #10 QB (2015) 350 points
Bad: #32 QB (2014: 6 games) 101 points, 2013 (3 games played), 2012 (1 game played)
Schedule: AFC North, NFC North, Carolina, at Arizona
Skinny: I am higher on Kirk Cousins than most analysts. Number of weeks with 30+ fantasy points? Four. Number of weeks with 20+ fantasy points? Eight. All by a guy who at this time last year was not the starting quarterback in Washington. The schedule is ok, but during the fantasy playoff drive Cousins will finish with four of five on the road from weeks 12-16. This includes a suboptimal Week 16 visit to Chicago on Christmas Eve. I think losing Alfred Morris helps Cousins, as Matt Jones is a more than capable pass catcher as the lead running back. He has a fantastic receiving corps including tight end Jordan Reed, DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Jamison Crowder, and first round pick Josh Doctson from TCU. I think Washington will score a ton of points. I’m just not sure if Cousins can repeat last year’s performance. My prediction? He comes close and has some big week to week performances.
17. Derek Carr (Oakland)
Good: #13 QB (2015) 334 points;
Bad: #20 QB (2014) 222 points;
Schedule: AFC South, NFC South, Buffalo, at Baltimore
Skinny: Carr is one of my dark horse candidates for a huge year. He enters year three as the Raiders quarterback and had a solid year last year with 32 touchdowns and only 13 interceptions. He, like Romo, has a fantastic offensive line (averaging 6’5″ and 330 lbs) and Carr has played all 16 games each of his first two years. He has some great weapons as well with wide receivers Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, and running back Latavius Murray in the backfield. Head coach Jack Del Rio has also already said that they consider fifth round draft pick DeAndre Washington from Texas Tech an every down back in case Murray falters. Schedule wise, the Raiders are home weeks 9-13 (including a bye), which is very helpful during the fantasy playoff drive.
18. Jameis Winston (Tampa Bay)
Good: #14 QB (2015: rookie) 318 points;
Bad: None
Schedule: AFC West, NFC West, Chicago, at Dallas
Skinny: Pretty solid start for the rookie, who had at least 14 fantasy points in standard leagues in every game he played. He finished with over 4,000 yards and 28 touchdowns…better than we could have ever hoped for. Sophomore years for quarterbacks are always tricky and Winston will open with a brutal five game schedule: road games at Atlanta and at Arizona, followed by tough defenses at home with the Rams and Denver, and finishing up with a trip to Carolina. It could also be difficult with a first year coach in Dirk Koetter. I could easily see those games going poorly, and someone in your league dropping him or looking to make a trade at that point. Winston should heat up after the Week 6 bye week, so he’ll be a great streaming option at that point. Coach Koetter still retains play-calling duties from 2015 which will help Winston tremendously. It will be tough sledding early, but keep an eye on him after the bye.
19. Marcus Mariota (Tennessee)
Good: #22 QB (2015 rookie: 11 games) 247 points
Bad: None
Schedule: AFC West, NFC North, Cleveland, at Miami
Skinny: Mariota shocked us all with what he was able to accomplish during his rookie campaign on a bad Titans team. In 11 games, he had 19 passing touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns, and even a receiving touchdown. He was a legitimate fantasy quarterback with 20 or more fantasy points seven times, and 30 or more fantasy points three times. His division makes him even more attractive, but his schedule in 2016 will not be easy. AFC West will be difficult with a brutal five game stretch late in season for Weeks 10-15 (including a bye): Green Bay, at Indy, at Chicago (Nov. 27th), Denver, and at Kansas City. Clearly head coach Mike Mularkey wants to run the ball more with DeMarco Murray and the surprising selection of Derrick Henry in the draft. Mariota is a good young NFL signal caller, but someone you probably want to only stream early/mid season at best.
20. Brock Osweiler (Houston)
Good: #30 QB (2015: 8 games) 136 points
Bad: None
Schedule: AFC West, NFC North, Cincinnati, at New England
Skinny: Osweiler quarterbacked the Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos for eight games. That’s good enough for me. He is in Houston now, but he’s got weapons galore led by All Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and newly acquired running back Lamar Miller (47 receptions). The Texans used the draft to give Osweiler some new shiny toys including rookie wide receiver Will Fuller (fastest 40 time in the draft at 4.32), rookie wide receiver Braxton Miller, and shifty rookie running back Tyler Ervin out of San Jose State. He is a guy that may not even be drafted in your league, and could be used as a very viable starter or at least a streaming quarterback. You have a lot of potential upside here with Osweiler, and for very little price.
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