The month of May signals it is time for my first round of yearly Fantasy Football rankings. I will start at the most important position: quarterback. No matter which league format you compete in, having good quarterback production is essential for a great season. It doesn’t need to be a top quarterback, but your weekly production at the position needs to perform like one. The historic advice is to always wait until the later rounds to draft a quarterback. While I agree with this advice, please also realize that in the 2015 Fantasy season there was a 6.75 ppg difference in the top-ranked quarterback (Newton) and the one ranked tenth (Cousins). This is significant variance to take into account when drafting your team. Here are my early quarterback rankings heading into the 2016 Fantasy Football season (all data provided by cbssports.com):
2016 Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings Part 1
1. Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay):
Good: #2 QB (2014) 412 points; #7 QB (2015) 362 points; #2 QB (2012) 404 points
Bad: #18 QB (2013) 189 points (8 games);
Schedule: NFC East, AFC South, Seattle, at Atlanta
SKINNY: No Jordy Nelson made a huge difference to Rodgers’ fantasy numbers in 2015. Despite losing Nelson, enduring a poor year from Eddie Lacy, and working within an offense that never seemed to click, Rodgers still ended up as the seventh ranked quarterback in standard scoring. If you drafted him, however, it was probably in the first two rounds which marked a massive disappointment. Don’t be concerned, as the Packers’ schedule in 2016 sets up beautifully for a big time bounce back year. The NFC East and specifically the AFC South were weak in pass defense in 2015, and the Atlanta road game shouldn’t be difficult either. The Packers first two games are at Jacksonville and at Minnesota, followed by a shocking four games in a row at home including a Week 4 bye. If Rodgers doesn’t get hurt, especially in a six point per passing touchdown league, you could almost write yourself in for 30 points a week and a great start to your fantasy season.
2. Andrew Luck (Indianapolis)
Good: #10 QB (2012-rookie) 305 Pts; #7 QB (2013) 323 pts; #1 QB (2014) 415 Pts
Bad: 2015 #27 QB 160 Points
Schedule: AFC West, NFC North, Pittsburgh, at Jets
SKINNY: Luck was widely considered by the majority of fantasy writers as the top quarterback heading into your 2015 draft. It was a bad season that was compounded with a bevy of injuries (Shoulder injury, lacerated kidney, torn cartilage in abdominal). It appears general manager Ryan Grigson got the importance of protecting Luck and drafted four offensive linemen. The weapons are still there and the division is still very suspect defensively. Wide receivers T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief, Phillip Dorsett, and tight end Dwayne Allen are are tremendous group, especially indoors. Detroit, San Diego, and Chicago at home in three of the first five weeks sets you up nicely with a quarterback anchor of 25+ points per game.
3. Russell Wilson (Seattle)
Good: #9 QB (2012) 310 points, #9 QB (2013) 307 points, #6 QB (2014) 351 points, #3 QB (2015) 403 Points
Bad: None
Schedule: NFC South, AFC East, Philly, at Green Bay
Skinny: Wilson is clearly the Rodney Dangerfield of NFL Fantasy quarterbacks. No respect! All he’s done the last four years is finish in the top ten among players at the position, scoring over 300 points each year. No quarterback finished hotter than Russell Wilson in 2015, and it may signal to Pete Carroll that he can open up the offense on a regular basis. Marshawn Lynch retired, which means Thomas Rawls is the lead running back, but I don’t think they feel comfortable giving the diminutive Rawls the same bruising load as “Beast Mode.” Rookies CJ Prosise (Notre Dame) and Alex Collins (Arkansas) will spark the offense on third down and Jimmy Graham should return during the season. Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse and year two of Tyler Lockett gives him big time targets on the outside. Wilson will go later in your draft than the usual names, but don’t shy away. This will be a great value pick with top three potential if the Seattle offense continues how they ended 2015.
4. Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh)
Good: #4 QB (2014) 362 Points; #10 QB (2013) 302 Points
Bad: #20 QB (2015) 269 Points, #16 QB (2012) 264 Points
Schedule: AFC East, NFC East, Kansas City, at Indianapolis
Skinny: The issue with 32-year-old Big Ben is always going to be games played. Last four years: 13, 16, 16, 12. If he stays upright in 2016, this could be a career year. He’s in his fifth year with Todd Haley as offensive coordinator, has clearly the top fantasy wide receiver in Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell/D’Angelo Williams in his backfield, and a sneaky tight end addition in Ladarius Green to replace Heath Miller. The reason he isn’t higher is because of the crushing loss of wide receiver Martavis Bryant. Wide receivers Markus Wheaton and second year man Sammy Coates should perform decently as replacements. Roethlisberger is even helped out by a great schedule, where the toughest defensive non-league game is potentially not until Week 14 at Buffalo. I am very high on Big Ben this year, and the Steelers know with Peyton Manning retiring and the Patriots losing Tom Brady for four games, they could be the AFC favorite. If they get an improved defense, watch out. He could be a top three fantasy quarterback.
5. Cam Newton (Carolina)
Good: #1 QB (2015) 458 pts; #5 QB (2013) 329 pts; #6 QB (2012) 344 pts
Bad: #17 QB (2014) 268 pts,
Schedule: AFC West, NFC West, Minnesota, at Washington
SKINNY: I like Cam, I really do, but there’s just something that makes me hesitant with him that doesn’t exist with the quarterbacks listed above him. Look at his last four year touchdown pattern: 27 (8 rushing), 30 (6 rushing), 23 (5 rushing, missed 2 games), 45 (10 rushing). Are we sure he’ll continue last year? He’s 26 years old, in his prime, coming off an NFL MVP season and a Super Bowl trip. It was a phenomenal year, but I see a potential regression. The Panthers were the surprise team of the NFL last year, but they also lost their best cover cornerback in Josh Norman. They have a questionable and injury prone running game, and I wonder how much longer head coach Rivera will let Cam run freely given his immense value to this team’s success. I like him, but at Denver on opening night, going to Seattle, and playing Arizona is no picnic. Throw in a west coast trip to play the feisty Rams’ defense, and I’m not sure he’ll be the top guy again. In fact, I could see fifth or below. But given his outstanding year and huge fantasy games in 2015, he still has a very high floor.
6. Philip Rivers (San Diego)
Good: #12 QB (2015) 351 points; #12 QB (2014) 312 points; #3 QB (2013) 341 points;
Bad: #20 (2012) 250 points
Schedule: AFC South, NFC South, Miami, at Cleveland
Skinny: It’s all about the weapons here: Melvin Gordon in year two, Danny Woodhead is a solid 3rd down guy, Keenan Allen, Stevie Johnson, added Travis Benjamin, Antonio Gates still in the red zone, and they are very high on Hunter Henry of Arkansas from the draft as well. The Chargers had 24 different offensive line combinations in 2015, they were decimated by injuries. I predict a regression back to the mean in health, and the Chargers just inked guard Matt Slauson from the Jets. Very fantasy friendly schedule, and they always play Denver tough even on the road. Philip Rivers finished as the 12th best quarterback in fantasy with no run game and that terrible offensive line. Plus, you will be able to get him much later that most. I am a big Philip Rivers fan in 2016.
7. Carson Palmer (Arizona)
Good: #5 QB (2015) 378 points;
Bad: #30 QB (2014) 117 points (5 games); #17 QB (2013) 256 points; #19 QB (2012) 259 points
Schedule: AFC East, NFC South, Washington, at Minnesota
Skinny: Carson Palmer had a fantastic 2015. That said, we need to be careful with a 36-year-old quarterback who has been fairly injury prone and had three terrible fantasy years out of the last four. To just project a repeat of 2015 is not responsible fantasy analyzing. I know he was in Oakland in 2012 and has been in Arizona for only three years, but two of those were terrible. The weapons are there: wide receivers Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and Michael Floyd. Most importantly? So is head coach Bruce Arians, which means more of this should continue. I certainly like Carson Palmer, but people will draft him in the top five and I just think there is much better value later in the draft.
8. Blake Bortles (Jacksonville)
Good: #4 QB (2015) 386 points;
Bad: #24 (2014) 176 points
Schedule: AFC West, NFC North, Baltimore, at Chicago
Skinny: The Jaguars are a team on the rise. Gus Bradley is getting the defense better, and that should significantly help the offense. Bortles is 24 years old, had no running game in 2015, and finished as the fourth best fantasy quarterback. Think about that: Blake Bortles was the number four player at the position in fantasy football. He now gets running back Chris Ivory to keep the defense honest, and TJ Yeldon became a good pass catching running back during the season. Receiving corps? Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, Marqise Lee (year three), and a healthy Julius Thomas. Sprinkle in a weak division in the AFC South and I can’t see Bortles not finishing as a top eight fantasy football quarterback in 2016. Part of me cannot believe I just wrote that sentence.
9. Drew Brees (New Orleans)
Good: #2 QB (2013) 423 points; #5 QB (2014) 358 points; #1 QB (2012) 422 points; #6 QB (2015) 367 points
Bad: None
Schedule: AFC West, NFC West, Detroit, at NY Giants
Skinny: You win in fantasy football with consistency. Drew Brees is the model of that notion. The difference between him and Palmer is that even though Brees is 37 years old, he’s produced at a high level every year. In 2015 he had a shoulder injury in week 2, but Weeks 13-16 (when you earn your titles in fantasy football) he dropped 29, 24, 32 and 34 points. In full disclosure, three of those four games were at home, and Brees isn’t the same quarterback on the road. I would even avoid him outdoors in the cold in late November or December. But that Max Unger for Jimmy Graham trade was smart, as it helps keeps Brees upright. Wide receiver Michael Thomas could be the Marques Colston replacement, and Coby Fleener was a great acquisition at tight end. Death, taxes, and Drew Brees as a solid fantasy football quarterback option.
10. Andy Dalton (Cincinnati)
Good: #18 QB (2015) 294 points (12 games); #4 QB (2013) 337 points; #12 (2012) 291 points
Bad: #18 QB (2014) 246 points;
Schedule: AFC East, NFC East, Denver at Houston
Skinny: I like Dalton, I just like the quarterbacks above him better. He gets knocked down a bit because of the departure of Marvin Jones (Detroit) and Mohamed Sanu (Atlanta). They also lose offensive coordinator Hue Jackson to Cleveland, which means Dalton will have to face Jackson’s defense twice a year. I watched a career year for Andy Dalton in 2015, I see a regression year in 2016, and most importantly I see people selecting him way too early. The Bengals’ schedule is not easy: Patriots, Jets, Bills, and at Dallas will all be tough. I see better quarterback value elsewhere.
Main Photo: LANDOVER, MD – JANUARY 10: Quarterback Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers signals against the Washington Redskins in the first quarter during the NFC Wild Card Playoff game at FedExField on January 10, 2016 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
