Alright everybody, calculators at the ready – it’s time to sort out the PRO 12 Permutations!
With one round of rugby left to be played, the Guinness PRO12 finds itself in rather unfamiliar territory – every game counts towards something, be that top four qualification or Champions’ Cup qualification. When the decision was taken to change the nature of the PRO12’s qualification to Europe’s premier competition was taken, this was exactly what they had in mind.
So without further ado, let’s get calculating!
PRO 12 Permutations
Top Four
We start in Galway where it’s second vs. first when the Glasgow Warriors arrive in the Sportsground to take on Connacht. The outcome here is simple enough – the winner here gets a home semi-final and the loser will probably be on the road for the playoffs (barring a miracle in Dublin), so it really is all to play for. Any win would guarantee Glasgow top seeding, whereas Connacht would need a bonus point victory to be assured the top seeding should they win.
Waiting in the wings are Leinster who take on Treviso at the RDS Arena knowing that they will probably profit from whichever team loses in Galway. They should wrap up all five points against the Italians, regardless of their impressive win last weekend, which means that they are odds on to have a home playoff and, should Connacht win but not pick up all five points, then they will be top seeds in the semis.
Meanwhile, fourth place isn’t yet wrapped up and it’ll be an interesting afternoon for both Ulster and the Scarlets as they look to snatch that final place.
Ulster have the advantage of already being in fourth and know that a four-try win over the Ospreys would guarantee them their place in the final four. Indeed, if they did so and Connacht failed to pick up anything from their game against Glasgow then the Ulstermen would actually jump up into third place. However, anything less than that and they are requiring the Scarlets to slip up in some way against Munster.
Should the Scarlets better Ulster’s points total at the weekend then the Welshmen will reach the playoffs at Ulster’s expense courtesy of having more wins than their rivals. So a bonus point win at Thomond Park for Wayne Pivac’s men will see them qualify for the last four unless Ulster do the same in Swansea.
Given the difficult nature of both games it’s hard to predict which way it’ll go and no doubt both teams will have a close eye on each other’s matches to see what they require. You would lean towards Ulster making it though, especially off the back of such an impressive win over Leinster.
Champions’ Cup Qualification – The Italians
At the bottom of the table the one place reserved for the Italians will be closely fought for between Treviso and Zebre. Treviso currently hold the spot courtesy of their remarkable last-gasp win over Connacht but Zebre have the one game they would have wanted to have at this stage of the season to try and save the position they’ve held all season – the Dragons in Parma.
With Treviso on the road to Leinster, a game you’d imagine they will come home from pointless, any sort of win for Zebre would send them into the Champions’ Cup next season and relegate Treviso to the Challenge Cup. Zebre have been badly out of form though and the Dragons, while they were beaten last week, showed glimpses of promise.
Barring a sudden turnaround in fortunes, you would imagine Treviso have just done enough to qualify again.
Champions’ Cup Qualification – Sixth Place
This is where the PRO12 really has strengthened from previous years. In the past Munster would already be consigned to the Challenge Cup as the fourth placed Irish finisher, the Ospreys would be guaranteed their Champions’ Cup place already and Edinburgh would have nothing to compete for either as automatic Scottish qualifiers.
Instead, all three teams battle it out for one last place.
Munster are in the prime position to take that spot and know that any kind of win over the Scarlets at Thomond Park will grant them top flight European rugby next season – the incentive plus the intimidating Limerick crowd should be enough to see them home, and inadvertently hand interprovincial rivals Ulster a final top four spot too.
The Ospreys go into their game against Ulster needing the victory to stand any chance of overtaking Munster in sixth while at the same time they need the Munstermen to pick up nothing against the Scarlets. A bonus point win would make their task a bit easier, however against one of the sternest defences in the league you would imagine the men from Swansea will be relying on getting the four points and then looking for their Welsh compatriots doing them a favour in Limerick.
Edinburgh, meanwhile, know that only a try bonus point will do for them at home to the Cardiff Blues, while also hoping that Ulster win at the Ospreys and the Scarlets deny Munster anything from their game. Not an impossible outcome, but you wouldn’t deny that the odds are stacked firmly against Alan Solomons’ side.
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