Last year, Jason Kreis was sacked because NYCFC didn’t make the playoffs. In the offseason, Patrick Vieira and a fairly substantial cast of new players descended upon the Bronx, with, one assumes, the same mandate from CFG.
But will NYCFC make the playoffs in 2016?
Now, you may say that it’s too early to tell, that we’re only six gameweeks into the season. You may say there are still too many variables, too many known unknowns and unknown unknowns – especially for a team (and front office) who clearly love to bring in at a moment’s notice people they think might help, as they did with Pirlo, Mena, Iraola, Angelino and more.
And you wouldn’t be wrong. But MLS’s comparatively short season means a point you drop in March can come back to bite you in the ass in October. As NYCFC know only too well.
So will NYCFC make the playoffs?
Last year a team needed 49 points in the east to make the playoffs (51 in the west; but they’re not in the west. So let’s not make this any harder than we need to). And NYCFC got 37 – which tied them on points with the Philadelphia Union, NYCFC’s opponent, coincidentally, on April 23 in Chester, PA.
A Philadelphia Union, it should be pointed out, that currently sits in second place in the east, while the boys in blue are hanging on to sixth – the final playoff spot if the season ended today – by the skin of their fingernails.
Six matches and six points. That means NYCFC will need to average 1.34375 points per game to, theoretically, make the playoffs. As Marc Maron would say, “Is that even possible?”
To find out, I went through the remaining fixtures three times and each time the answer was a resounding “no” (well, to be honest, the answer the first two times was “this is some kind of joke, right?” and the third time was, “no, but you’re getting closer”).
I won’t bore you with the match-by-match details, but there was a bit of method to my madness here (and if you’d like me to email you my notes, I’m more than happy to. But I warn you, they’re a bit confusing, and really, is there NOTHING on television right now?).
To get a sense of the quality of the teams they’re facing, I looked at where they finished last season, and correlated that with where they stood before this season’s Gameweek 7 matches were played. Then I looked at their records for each season relevant to whether NYCFC were playing them at home or away. (that is, if they’re playing Portland in Portland this year, just how good are they in Providence Park, this season and last?). Then I reviewed how NYCFC did against each opponent last season, with special attention to venue relevance (that is, losing to DC in DC was probably relevant to predicting what would happen during this year’s match against them there. Losing to Portland in the Bronx last year has less relevance to how they’ll do when they face the Timbers in Portland this May). And then I tried to consider difficulty of schedule, travel, and my own personal biases (like do I REALLY think the Red Bulls are going to be the worst team in MLS for the entire season?)
Did you follow that? Because I almost didn’t, and I’m the one who came up with it.
Then I went through the schedule game by game.
And the first time, I had NYCFC picking up 25 points from the remaining fixtures. Which left them with a total that was six points worse than 2015 and 18 short of the playoffs. Yikes.
But I’m a hardass, and notoriously pessimistic. So I fixed myself a drink and went through the schedule again. Sure, they lost at Gillette last year, and sure, they drew with the Revs this year at home (when they were playing without Lee Nguyen), but hey, maybe they’ll steal a point or two in Foxborough this time. Same thing up at BMO in Toronto. Last year NYCFC won there; maybe the miserable showing in the Bronx this year was an aberration and they’ll get a point back.
That got another 6 points, and still on the couch in November. And still worse than 2015.
So I fixed an even stronger drink and tried again. They’ll get a point in Houston (though they never have in Texas), they’ll get another point in DC, another against New England, and they’ll draw Dallas and Montreal at home (sure, they’re the top two teams in the league, but, well, you know. It could happen).
That got them to 44 points. 7 better than 2015 but still 5 points short of the playoffs.
In the end, to get to 49 points, NYCFC have to do some rather amazing things – in addition to all the things I’ve already laid out. Like take all possible points from DC United. Like take at least two points from the Red Bulls – which might be likely if NYCFC were playing them, say, in April when they’re scrambling to cover injuries, but less likely in July when they’re actually scheduled. They’d have to beat the Simbas the next time they come to the Bronx (not lose 1-0) and draw them the next time NYCFC headed down to Disney. They’d have to pay Columbus back for the beat down they delivered at Mapfre and do it on the last game of the season. They’d have to go unbeaten at home for the rest of the season.
In other words, NYCFC would have to play like a real, top level team.
By my calculations, that would give them 11 wins, 7 losses and 10 draws. 49 points.
And NYCFC make the playoffs.
Oh well. There’s always next year. I wonder who the coach will be…
