The Padres have gotten off to a dismal start in 2016: twelve games, eight losses (four at home), and five shutouts. That includes three straight shutouts to start the season, two more shutouts against the rebuilding Philadelphia Phillies, and, somehow, some way, a twenty-nine-run explosion in eighteen innings against the Colorado Rockies.
This is, by far, the most lopsided start we have seen in quite some time. How does a team lose three straight via shutout to start the year, and then score twenty-nine runs across two days yet just score a total of five runs in four games in Philadelphia?
It’s unfathomable.
This brings about the million dollar question: Should the San Diego Padres clean house and go full-on rebuild?
We all know the power of rockstar GM A.J. Preller. Preller dealt for Craig Kimbrel, Derek Norris, Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, Justin Upton, and Melvin Upton Jr. before the start of the 2015 season. Preller also signed James Shields to a huge deal last off season.
The gamble didn’t pay off for Preller and the Padres, so A.J. shipped away Kimbrel for a ridiculous four-player package from the Boston Red Sox, including the center fielder and shortstop of the future. Preller was busy orchestrating deals for Norris, Cashner, Shields, Ross, and even Kemp, but ultimately couldn’t come work out any contracts he liked.
Preller has taken a lot of heat for plucking the Padres farm system last winter, trading away Matt Wisler and Joe Ross, among others. Preller acquired six minor leaguers alone just by trading Joaquin Benoit and Kimbrel, and looks to do the same by trading Ross and Cashner, to name a couple.
With first-year manager Andy Green at the helm, the Padres aren’t in the biggest hurry to win, especially in the ever-dangerous National League West.
The front office should be active in the coming months, especially if the Friars keep walking down the road of shutout losses. Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner can fit on a playoff-bound team, and James Shields could too, though his massive contract, to match his huge beard, may be prohibitive.
The Padres have a young core of Robbie Erlin, Colin Rea, and Drew Pomeranz on the staff right now. Ross is on the DL after one start, and Shields and Cashner round out the five starters for San Diego.
Derek Norris is a terrific defensive catcher, but struggled with the bat in the second half of last season and at the start of this season. Matt Kemp can still produce, but carries a hefty price tag for a team to acquire him. Melvin Upton, Jr. is another outfielder who has a lot of talent, but his contract is similarly undesirable.
The Padres roster already looks a bit different than it did last season, and come July 31, it could look drastically different than it did on Opening Day. Preller is a guy who won’t quit until he finds something that works, whether it is two years, three years, or five years down the road.
San Diego has a very talented minor league roster, and the Padres have a handful of prospects who could be in the big leagues by the end of the season. Preller has been stubborn so far in the trade process for guys like Ross, Cashner, and Norris, but with the market dwindling and the value of those three declining each day, the time to move them might be now. Do you hold on to Ross and Cashner in hopes the Padres turn it around? Or do you trade them while you can get something for them before they walk away at the end of the season?
A.J. Preller has no easy job, and certainly made his job a lot more difficult by blowing up the roster before the 2015 season, just to see the Padres finish under .500. The Padres have a tough task ahead of them, and if they keep going down this current road, Preller might have no option but to trade away everybody and go with a full-on rebuild.
Your 2016 San Diego Padres: 4-8, five shutouts, in perhaps the toughest division in all of baseball. Andy Green has a tremendous amount of patience, but do the fans and the management have the same? Only time will tell.
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