For the most part, mock drafts are ridiculous. It’s nearly impossible to predict who a team will take, or if they’ll trade out of the spot altogether. A draft expert could spend hours crunching data, interview every general manager, and watch every moment of film and, much like a march madness bracket, it could be ruined right off the bat. It’s a crapshoot, and that point was proven when the Los Angeles Rams traded a handful of picks to the Tennessee Titans for the first overall pick.
The Tennessee Titans drafted Marcus Mariota with the second overall pick last year, so they had no need to draft a quarterback. Nobody will ever know for sure now, but it can be speculated that they probably would’ve taken Laremy Tunsil from Ole Miss with the first overall pick. Now that’s obviously not going to happen, so teams that may have drafted a different position will hop all over a franchise left tackle. The ripple effect rips through the rest of the draft, causing teams to change their picks and the future of the NFL altogether.
Logical 2016 NFL Mock Draft
So instead of trying to predict the impossible, this mock draft will be about writing what player each team should draft in the first round. Since the New England Patriots will probably not get their first round pick back, this mock will also include the 32nd pick, which belongs to the Cleveland Browns.
1. The St. Louis Los Angeles Rams
Quarterback, Carson Wentz, North Dakota
Looking at the Rams quarterback depth chart, it doesn’t take long to see why they traded six picks, including two first and second round picks to the Tennessee Titans for the first overall pick. The Rams were 32nd in passing last year, and between Nick Foles, Case Keenum, and Sean Mannion, the fans who followed the team to Los Angeles don’t have a lot to be excited about under center. That all changes with the first overall pick, where the Rams take North Dakota’s Carson Wentz.
There’s a ton of debate about whether Wentz or UCLA’s Jared Goff is the best quarterback in this year’s class, and there should be. Wentz is bigger, faster, and has a stronger arm, but there’s no question that Goff is a far more polished product. Goff threw about as many touchdowns as a junior (43) as Wentz did in four years at North Dakota (45), and against much better competition in the Pac 12. If the Rams were trying to be contenders right now, Goff would be the obvious choice. However, with a defense that needs to be rebuilt, and some young pieces on offense, head coach Jeff Fisher will have time to develop the young passer of his choice, and as stated before, Wentz has many of the tools that simply can’t be taught.
2. The Cleveland Browns
Quarterback, Jared Goff, UCLA
With Wentz off the board, the big decision just got a lot easier. The Browns are going to be very, very bad in 2016. That is pretty much unavoidable. Alex Mack, Mitchell Schwartz, and Travis Benjamin are gone from the offense and Joe Thomas isn’t getting any younger. Josh Gordon’s drug suspension continues and Johnny Manziel has been cut. The Browns have needs across the board, but when a team has a chance to take someone who could be the face of the franchise, they have to.
Head coach Hue Jackson has his work cut out for him, and it would take a miracle for the Browns to stay out of last place in the wildly competitive AFC North. Fortunately for the Browns, Jackson is a quarterback wizard, getting elite production from the likes of Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, and Carson Palmer, and whoever the Rams decide not to take will get to learn from one of the very best.
3. The San Diego Chargers
Defensive End, Joey Bosa, Ohio State
Despite the lack of elite receiving talent for Philip Rivers, the biggest need for the San Diego Chargers has to be on their defense. The Chargers essentially forced defensive mainstay, Eric Weddle, out of the building, weakening what was already a middle of the pack passing defense, and crippling one of the worst run defenses in football last year.
The Chargers haven’t had a signature pass rusher since Shawne Merriman had 12 sacks in 2007, almost a decade ago. While it’s true that Bosa is more of a 4-3 defensive end, and the Chargers plan to play a 3-4, Bosa’s measurables are almost identical to J.J. Watt, who plays the five technique in the Houston Texans 3-4. While it’s unrealistic to expect Bosa to match Watt’s production, he is one of the few truly elite prospects in this year’s draft, and as strange as it is, would be a steal at number three overall.
4. The Dallas Cowboys
Defensive Back, Jalen Ramsey, Florida State
For a team that seemed so complete just two years ago, the Cowboys have holes everywhere. They need pass rushers, a bell cow running back, a replacement for tight end Jason Witten, and some are even claiming Dallas needs to draft their quarterback of the future now. However, an area the Cowboys have really struggled with drafting, despite their best efforts, has been cornerback.
The Cowboys have spent a first-round pick on a corner twice in the last eight years, and it has yet to pay off. Dallas drafted Mike Jenkins in the first round of the 2008 draft, and now he’s a backup in Tampa Bay, and while Morris Claiborne has had moments, he was only brought back to Dallas on a one-year deal for 2016. While some may see these failures as reason for the Cowboys to draft a different position, Jerry Jones and company may need to realize that it’s still a huge need. With Joey Bosa off the board, Jalen Ramsey is the best player available, and they have to strike while they can.
5. The Jacksonville Jaguars
Cornerback, Vernon Hargreaves III, Florida
There’s no denying it, the Jaguars defense was terrible last year, especially though the air, where they gave up over 4,200 yards and 29 touchdowns against the pass, while recording only nine interceptions. Jacksonville made an effort in free agency to plug these holes by signing pass rusher Malik Jackson to partner with the debut of last year’s first round pick, Dante Fowler, but they need some help in the secondary.
Vernon Hargreaves III is arguably the best pure corner in the draft, and in a division that features three other young quarterbacks, there really aren’t other options for the Jaguars. He’s a little undersized, and not quite as fast as scouts would like, but his football IQ is off the charts and should help him compensate for what he lacks physically.
6. The Baltimore Ravens
Offensive Tackle, Laremy Tunsil, Ole Miss
Shockingly enough, the best offensive tackle in the draft is still available for the Baltimore Ravens at number six. While they probably would’ve liked to pick a defensive stud like linebacker Myles Jack or defensive end DeForest Buckner, they’ll be ecstatic to see that Tunsil has fallen to them at six. The Ravens haven’t had a stud left tackle since Jonathon Ogden retired in 2007, and Tunsil will be able to start protecting Joe Flacco’s blindside from day one. With Eugene Mornoe struggling to stay healthy and to even perform, and with Kelechi Osemele signing with the Raiders, the Ravens have a serious need at left tackle.
7. The San Francisco 49ers
Quarterback, Paxton Lynch, Memphis
At the beginning of this article, I said that each team would only be mocked who they should draft, not who anyone believes they will draft. I said that because it’s illogical to attempt to predict what will happen during the draft. When it comes to 49ers head coach, Chip Kelly, logic goes out the window. While the 49ers should probably draft an inside linebacker or offensive lineman, Chip Kelly needs his guy at quarterback. Last season he sent a fourth and a second round pick to the St. Louis Rams for Sam Bradford, and there are rumors he tried desperately to trade up for Marcus Mariota, his college quarterback. And on paper, Paxon Lynch is a perfect fit for Chip Kelly’s offense. At 6’7, 244 pounds, the former Memphis signal caller can run a 4.8 40 yard dash, which is pretty incredible. He’s an exceptional athlete, especially at his size, and if he’s still around at number seven, it’s very unlikely that Trent Baalke will be able to convince his head coach to draft anybody else.
8. The Philadelphia Eagles
Running back, Ezekiel Elliot, Ohio State
It’s ironic that the Philadelphia Eagles pick immediately after Chip Kelly’s San Francisco 49ers, because they’re still trying to clean up the mess he left behind. The offensive line is in pieces, the previous incredibly talented receiving corps is now spread from Washington D.C. to Kansas City, and LeSean McCoy is desperately trying to shoulder the entire Bills offense in Buffalo. All three of the first round quarterbacks are gone and, unlike the last two seasons, this is a very thin wide receiver class, so the Eagles have to take the best skill position player available, and that’s Ohio State’s Ezekiel Elliot.
This isn’t a bad thing, as Elliot is an incredibly talented player. The former Buckeye is the prototypical franchise running back. He’s 6’0, 225, runs a 4.4 40 yard dash, and is exceptional at catching passes out of the backfield. He’s the best running back in this draft, and him being paired with the oft-injured Ryan Mathews should provide an immediate spark to the Philadelphia offense.
9. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cornerback, Eli Apple, Ohio State
Only four teams gave up more passing touchdowns than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers did in 2016, and if they ever want to be competitive in the whacky NFC South, that needs to change. They did sign veteran corner Brent Grimes and veteran pass rusher Robert Ayers Jr. to help boost their pass defense, but that’s not enough. They’ll add some much needed youth and speed with Ohio State’s Eli Apple. At 6’1, being able to run a 4.3 is almost unheard of, but that is what Apple brings to the table. The Buccaneers gave up too many points last year, and thus put far too much pressure on their young quarterback to succeed.
10. The New York Giants
Inside Linebacker, Reggie Ragland, Alabama
While a lot of teams would scoff at the idea of Ragland being taken before Myles Jack or Jaylon Smith, Ragland is the best pure inside linebacker in this draft, and that’s something the Giants have been needing desperately for quite a long time. Ragland fits in almost every defensive scheme, and with the additions of Olivier Vernon, Janoris Jenkins, Damon Harrison, and the re-signing of Jason Pierre-Paul, the rest of the defense is set. The Giants have needed a linebacker for years, and they’ll grab their franchise piece with Ragland at number ten.
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