After a long and gruelling NHL season, the Stanley Cup Playoffs are finally upon us, with the Washington Capitals vs Philadelphia Flyers match-up set to start on Thursday night. The Presidents’ Trophy-winning Capitals are the favourite to win the Stanley Cup this year, but they will have the face a tough test in the red-hot Flyers. Who will come out on top?
Washington Capitals vs Philadelphia Flyers First Round Preview
Washington finished the season with an astonishing 120 points (56-18-8), while the Flyers have the fourth-worst record out of all 16 playoff teams, with 96 points (41-27-14). The division rivals played each other four times, splitting the series with two wins each, but the Flyers wins were in overtime and in a shootout. The two teams met four times previously in the playoffs: in 1984, the Capitals won 3-0; in 1988, the Capitals came down from 3-1 to win 4-3; in 1989, the Flyers won 4-2; and in 2008, the Flyers won 4-3.
The Capitals have been dominant all season, with the playoffs in sight since the All-Star break. Braden Holtby tied Martin Brodeur’s record for wins in a season with 48, Alex Ovechkin scored 50 goals for a seventh time in his 11-season career, and the Capitals finished with the second-best record in franchise history, just one point behind their record from 2009-2010. They no longer are a one-dimensional team, as Ovechkin didn’t even lead the team in points, that role was filled by Evgeny Kuznetsov, who earned 57 assists and 77 points. Five of their top six forwards scored over 20 goals, and three of the top 11 point-producers were defencemen.
The Flyers squeaked into the post-season on the second-last day of the regular season following a win at home against Pittsburgh. They are not playing like a team that just made the playoffs, as they went 13-5-3 through March and April. The Orange Wave is riding through the City of Brotherly Love once again, and the players are feeling the momentum.. In the final 21 games of the season, Wayne Simmonds had 20 points, rookie defenceman Shayne Gostisbehere produced 12, and captain Claude Giroux scored 18 points. Goalie Steve Mason has also been solid with a 10-4-3 record, .920 SV% and 2.22 GAA in his last 18 starts. The Flyers will need to ride this hot surge into the playoffs.
Both Teams Will Need to Build on Momentum
As previously touched upon, the Flyers are on a high right now, and have been playing playoff hockey for the past month. They will have their backs up against the wall, which is nothing new to them. Head coach Dave Hakstol will need to let his players play worry-free and carry the momentum from the regular season.
Giroux has been in this situation before, and after needing a shootout win in the final regular season game in 2010, Giroux and the Flyers went to the Stanley Cup Finals as the seventh seed in the East. That team had plenty of leadership- something the Flyers don’t have much of now outside of Jakub Voracek, Giroux and Simmonds. The leaders on the team will need to guide the young players, and show them how to get it done in the spring.
Even though the Capitals haven’t been on a surge comparable to the Flyers, they have been playing great all season. The Capitals will need to build on their season-long momentum during this first round series. They will need to remember how much confidence the Flyers are going to be playing with, and counter it with their own play.
Unlike the Flyers, the Capitals are riffed with leaders in Ovechkin, Jason Chimera, Brooks Orpik, Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Richards and Mr. Game 7, Justin Williams. A few of them have even won Cups elsewhere, so they know what it takes and how to handle teams on a hot streak. Williams was part of the eighth-seeded L.A. Kings that used their end-of-season momentum to win the Stanley Cup in 2012.
The Capitals will also need to subdue the joyous crowd at the Wells Fargo Center in games three and four. Philadelphia gets behind the Flyers come the playoffs, and it is a rocking building. If the Flyers play their style of run-and-gun hockey in front of their own crowd, the speedy Capitals may get in trouble. Washington’s leaders cannot let that happen.
Tighten Up Defensively, Capitalize on Mistakes
The Capitals were the second-highest scoring offence with 248 goals, and had the second-least goals against, with 191. The Flyers had a mediocre 22nd-best offence with 211 goals, but were 12th best for defence, with 210 goals against. Simply put, the Flyers will get little opportunities to score, and they will need to use capitalize on the Capitals mistakes.
It is cliché come playoff time, but both teams will need to tighten up defensively and commit as few mistakes as possible. The Flyers have shown in the past month that they could bounce off any mistake, and make it hurt. Simmonds leads the charge in that regard, and he will kill the Capitals if they allow him to get to the front of the net unprotected. Washington cannot let Shayne Gostisbehere have lanes to shoot from the point, because the rookie has shown he could blast shots from the blue line.
As for Philadelphia, they need to do everything in their power to keep Ovechkin at bay. Ovechkin surely knows he will get extra attention, and he needs to pounce on lapses from the Flyers defence. Needless to say, the Capitals are deep, and even if there is a small possibility that the Russian scores zero points, they have plenty of secondary scoring through all four lines.
There is not much the Flyers will be able to do to neutralize the whole team, so they need to score when they are given the opportunity.
Stay Disciplined
Another playoff cliché, but this applies especially to the Flyers in this series. Although the Capitals did not have the best powerplay in the league, they were still fifth, with a 21.9% efficiency. They scored 55 goals on the powerplay, and Ovechkin alone scored 19 of them (over 30% of the team’s totals). When he is in his office at the top of the circle on the right side of the goalie, he is the most deadly sniper in the league.
The addition of T.J. Oshie has made the Capitals powerplay lethal, and he contributed 11 goals with the man-advantage. The defence duo of Matt Niskanen and John Carlson have put up 26 assists, and have helped turn the Capitals powerplay into a multi-dimensional scoring-machine.
The Flyers have been sent to the box 262 times, and have successfully killed 80.2% of penalties, 20th best in the league. For a team looking to beat the Washington Capitals in a seven-game series, they need to stay out of the box, and improve those numbers on the penalty kill.
Predictions
Despite the recent play of the Flyers, the Capitals will be able to win this series, in six games. They have a good mix of veterans to handle the pressure from the Flyers, they will minimize their mistakes and pounce on the opponents’, and they will win the special teams battle. For a team that won 56 games in the regular season, it should be difficult to lose the first-round series. The Flyers could win the two home games, but that will be it. The Capitals should cruise into the second round.
Here are other predictions from the LWOS Hockey department:
Ken Hill: Capitals in 4.
Mark Grainda: Capitals in 5.
Markus Meyer: Capitals in 5.
Connor Ferguson: Capitals in 6.
Dave Gove: Capitals in 4.
Cristiano Simonetta: Capitals in 6.
Nic Hendrickson: Capitals in 4.
Ben Kerr: Capitals in 4.
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