After a long and intense NHL season, the Stanley Cup Playoffs are finally upon us. The Chicago Blackhawks and the St. Louis Blues are set to start Game 1 on Wednesday night. The defending champion Blackhawks have plenty of playoff experience and are the likely favorite in this series, despite finishing below the Blues in the standings. However, there are many who believe this group of Blues are different and have what it takes to shake the label of playoff underachievers.
The Central Division is hockey’s Group of Death.
Five of the seven teams qualified for a postseason bid this year, and with the new divisional playoff format, it was guaranteed that some would draw against each other in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The first-place Dallas Stars will face off against the Minnesota Wild, but the highly touted matchup lies between the Chicago Blackhawks and the St. Louis Blues.
Intensity. Passion. Rivalry. We expect these terms to be exemplified over the next two weeks as the “Black and Blue” series rolls on. Who will survive the vicious bout?
Chicago Blackhawks vs St. Louis Blues First Round Preview
Chicago ended the season 103 points (47-26-9) which was good enough for 3rd in the Central Division and 5th overall in the NHL. The Blues continued their regular season dominance by finishing with 107 points which was 3rd-best in the league (49-24-9). They failed to catch the red-hot Stars who had 109 points.
In the five games that the two longtime foes faced each other, St. Louis won three of them. Although, the Blackhawks dropped two of those in overtime and one in a shootout. These teams have battled in the playoffs eleven times before, most recently in 2014 when Chicago disposed of the Blues in six games. Overall, the Hawks hold an 8-3 advantage in those previous clashes.
After a mediocre start to the 2015-2016 campaign, head coach Joel Quenneville’s club received a much-needed boost in the form of a franchise-record 12-game winning streak from December 29th to January 19th. During the streak, goaltender Corey Crawford started nine games and went 9-0-0 with a .946 save percentage and a goals-against average of 1.88. He’s put together quite the season with 35 wins and a .924 save percentage.
Led offensively all year long by the NHL’s points leader, Patrick Kane, Chicago has once again put themselves into a position poised for a championship run. The 27-year-old winger made history after becoming the first American-born player to win the Art Ross Trophy. Kane posted career highs in goals (46), assists (60) and points (106) while playing all 82 regular season games. Rookie sensation Artemi Panarin racked up 77 points (30G, 47A) playing alongside #88 and new addition Artem Anisimov on what has been the team’s most dominant line.
Blues bench boss Ken Hitchcock mastered quite a feat this year in the standings with a variety of moving roster pieces. St. Louis has topped at least 100 points in each of Hitch’s four seasons, but this one could have been the most challenging. This year alone, St. Louis suffered injuries to Jaden Schwartz, Patrik Berglund, Paul Stastny, Alexander Steen, Kevin Shattenkirk, Brian Elliott and Jake Allen that required them to miss ten games or more (Alex Pietrangelo also missed nine games with a knee injury).
Budding superstar Vladimir Tarasenko improved on his breakout season in 2014-2015 with 40 goals and 34 assists, even without his linemate Schwartz for a majority of the year. What’s more impressive is that 28 of his goals either tied the game or put St. Louis in the lead. Rookies Robby Fabbri, Joel Edmundson and Colton Parayko have all performed better than expected and have been handed big roles each and every night they hit the ice by Hitch (history shows that’s not always the case with him).
Here’s three storylines to watch as the series unfolds:
The Physical and Mental Tolls
Every series in the Stanley Cup Playoffs is grueling, even the ones that end early. Teams exert as much energy as humanly possible in order to put their respective team over the hump.
It’s no secret that the St. Louis Blues engage in a grinding style of hockey. They’re a dump and chase team that forechecks well and can cycle the puck. Two-way forwards like captain David Backes and Berglund can separate the opposition from the puck with physicality in order to take control of a game. Los Angeles Kings excluded, no team has been able to execute that particular game plan against the Chicago Blackhawks over the course of a seven-game series with success.
The Anaheim Ducks took a crack at it last year in the Western Conference Final, with Ryan Kesler providing the quote of the series:
No human can withstand that many hits.
Look, there’s no doubt that the Blues are going to use every chance they get to hit someone wearing a red and black sweater. It’s their bread and butter to wearing down the opposition. History shows that you can’t rely on that element completely to dethrone the reigning Stanley Cup champions. The Hawks are just too good off the rush and can make you pay in an instant if you miss a check or turn over the puck and get caught in the offensive zone. They’ve also been a team who rarely comes out on top of the hit category because of their run and gun offense. There will be some bumps and bruises on both sides as this intends to be an extremely physical series, but the Blues need to take advantage off the rush.
Then there’s the mental factor. Chicago’s core has proven their experience with three Stanley Cup banners over the last six seasons that hang in the rafters of the United Center, but their bottom two pairings on the blue line draw the largest concern. The Blackhawks don’t exactly boast the same talent or experience on defense as they did when Johnny Oduya solidified the second pairing with Nicklas Hjalmarsson. The man they call “Hammer,” Keith and Seabrook will be forced to address that if they find themselves down early in this series, but Chicago’s proven they can get through almost anything.
What about the Blues? Troy Brouwer is the only roster player with a Stanley Cup to his name, capturing one with (you guessed it) the Blackhawks in 2010. They’re a young team with great aspirations and going up against an experienced core in Chicago doesn’t help. Hitchcock took the Dallas Stars all the way in 1999, but hasn’t reached the conference finals since 2004. The pressure gauge is at an all-time high for both the players and the personnel to succeed (including GM Doug Armstrong). Longtime Blues T.J. Oshie and Barret Jackman found themselves on new rosters this year and another early round exit may require similar shakeup. Backes becomes a UFA in the summer.
Adversity is going to play a monumental role in this series, but time will tell as to who will slip up first.
Special Teams Need to Be Special
Hitchcock said it best when answering a question pertaining to the importance of a team’s power play and penalty kill in the postseason:
I think in the playoffs, percentages are out the window. It’s all about “Do you score the right [power play] goal at the right time? or “Do you kill a penalty at the right time?” To me, everything is based on timing.
Percentages or not, the Blues have not got the job done from a special teams perspective in their past first round defeats. St. Louis was 2-for-29 with the man-advantage against the Blackhawks in 2014 (the worst out of the 16 playoff teams) and then were 66.7% efficient on the PK in 2015 against the Wild.
In the regular season, they dominated both categories. Their power play percentage (21.5%) ranked sixth in the NHL and their penalty kill (85.1%) was third. They maintained the ability to roll two lines on the PP, one with Tarasenko, Steen and Shattenkirk and one with Fabbri, Brouwer and Parayko. Free agent acquisitions Scottie Upshall and Kyle Brodziak have turned into a terrific duo while shorthanded and have the capability to spearhead the offense when down a man. While those numbers are wiped clean now that a new season has begun, signs point to the Blues being well-balanced in these two crucial areas.
The Blackhawks have killed off the last 18 of 19 penalties after Marcus Kruger returned from a wrist injury, but still ended up 22nd in the NHL (80.3%) in that regard. That’s something the Blues could possibly pick apart if given the opportunity. On the other hand, their power play has been lethal. Only the Anaheim Ducks have a better conversion rating with Chicago sitting second at 22.6%. Their first power play unit is a combination of Anisimov, Panarin and Kane with Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook manning the points. They dominate puck possession, resembling the Harlem Globetrotters at times with their ability to make defenders look silly.
Captain Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa and Teuvo Teravainen are up front on the second grouping with Erik Gustafsson and Trevor van Riemsdyk on the back-end. Teravainen is utilized as the facilitator while Toews and Hossa know when to crash the net and possess sweet hands around the goal line to bang in loose pucks. Both teams have dangerous components, here. It’ll be interesting to see who can outperform the other at even-strength play, too.
But like Hitch said, it’s not about the amount of special teams tallies each team is able to produce, but the time in which they are able to pot them.
Series-stealing Goaltending
One of the more intriguing duels in this series will be between the men in between the pipes for both teams. Corey Crawford is hoping to add a third Stanley Cup to his arsenal since locking down the starting job in Chicago while Brian Elliott plans on cementing his legacy in the National Hockey League.
Crawford has dealt with his own set of doubters throughout his entire career, despite the hardware. The 31-year-old has stood tall against the minimal scoring opportunities that his defense has allowed; he’ll face his toughest test this postseason. Chicago’s puck possession numbers as a team have been down which translates into more activity in the defensive zone.
Still, the Montreal-born net-minder has matured immensely after early postseason gaffes in his NHL career. Seven of his 35 wins this season are shutouts, providing enough evidence to prove that he’s able to stand on his head when called upon. In fact, in Game 3 of 2014’s conference quarterfinal against St. Louis, Crawford stopped all 34 shots that came his way. It was a spectacular showing and undoubtedly tilted the momentum back to the Blackhawks side. The real question pertains to his recent upper-body injury: how quickly can he shake off the rust?
He allowed five goals against Columbus (and didn’t look sharp) in the series finale in which several of Chicago’s top players took the night off. With a potent offense like St. Louis in his way for the next two weeks, Crawford will have to be as sharp as he’s ever been if he wants to get through to the second round. He left last year’s playoffs with his second ring and is hungry for a third.
As for Elliott last postseason start? May 10th of 2013; he’s started 108 regular season contests since then. The Newmarket, ON native has been passed over for Jaroslav Halak, Ryan Miller and Jake Allen during his tenure in St. Louis due to his inability to be clutch when it matters most (not that those goaltenders did, either). He’s got a lot to prove this April if he wants to be considered as a top back-stopper in this league in the future.
After amassing a record of 23-8-6 with a GAA of 2.07 (3rd-best) and leading the NHL with a save percentage of .93o, it’s safe to say that he’s certainly performed like one this year.
When Jake Allen went down with an injury in early January, Elliott was handed the reins. The self-proclaimed “Number one in your program, number one in your hearts” was tremendous then and is now. In his last twelve decisions, he’s 11-1-0. In mid-March, “Moose” piled in three consecutive shutouts and seemed indestructible. On April 7th in Chicago, he truly came into his own, stopping Patrick Kane from point-blank range three or four times (two key stops came in OT) en route to picking up the 2-1 win in a 24-save effort. Brian Elliott is ready to show the hockey world what he can do.
Goal-scorers are going to have their hands full in this series.
Predictions
Both Quenneville and Hitchcock have said in one way or another that their best players have to be their best players. It’s a common cliché in sports but it wouldn’t be one if it wasn’t true. Tarasenko, Steen and Stastny will be relied on to supply the offense on their respective lines while Kane, Panarin, Toews and Teravainen hope to do the same. Shattenkirk and Pietrangelo will have to outlast Keith and Seabrook in all facets of the game. Elliott and Crawford will be under the most scrutiny from fans if they deliver a lackluster outing.
It’s probable that this will be the most-entertaining series of the first round of the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs, for good reason. These are two close-knit teams that can score at will but don’t allow much. A victor will not be decided until the last possible game of the series and it’s been proven that home-ice advantage hasn’t been the best friend to the Blues as of late. That will change this year.
BLUES IN SEVEN.
Here are other predictions from the LWOS Hockey department:
Ken Hill: Blackhawks in 7.
Mark Grainda: Blues in 6.
Markus Meyer: Blackhawks in 7.
Connor Ferguson: Blues in 7.
Dave Gove: Blues in 6.
Nicholas Di Giovanni: Blackhawks in 6.
Nic Hendrickson: Blackhawks in 7.
Ben Kerr: Blues in 6.
Zachary DeVine: Blackhawks in 7.
Griffin Schroeder: Blues in 7.
Catherine Dore: Blackhawks in 7.
Chris Lizza: Blackhawks in 6.
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