It may well be too early to make a lasting judgement on the success or lack thereof regarding the Super Rugby Expansion to 18 teams from 15. It, however, seems an opportune moment to reflect and review as two of the sides face each other in the upcoming Round Six set of fixtures. As the Southern Kings host the Japanese Sunwolves in Port Elizabeth, the Argentinian Jaguares will be facing the Blues in Auckland. With only one win in twelve matches between the three new franchises it would appear on the surface that the good intention of SANZAAR in spreading the global reach of the game may have moved too quickly.
The tournament itself has gone through a number of changes throughout the years from Super 12 in the 1990s/early 2000s before expansion to Super 14 in 2006 and most recently to Super Rugby in 2011 with 15 teams. Super Rugby expansion is not a new concept as they have challenged the perceived boundaries of the sport but, is this one step too far?
Super Rugby Expansion: Progress Report
Southern Kings
South African rugby pushed for many years for the inclusion of a fifth then ultimately a sixth franchise into Super Rugby, with the Cheetahs being the first expansion team in 2006. With a wealth of rugby talent in South African domestic clubs were then forced to vie for the competition franchise place, in a playoff system between the best domestic side and worst performing in Super Rugby; although in 2013 this was removed with the planned addition of a sixth franchise. Come the latest expansion to 18 sides and again the Kings side were vying to be included in the top-tier of rugby.
Flying largely under the radar alongside the two brand new and far greater publicised franchises from Japan and Argentina, many observers could be forgiven for not noticing the Kings inclusion. Absent since their only competition appearance in 2013 (in which they were relegated) they faced up to the challenge of expansion with a backlog of political issues and commercial strife surrounding the team. Excellently documented and reported on by a fellow LWOS colleague, Ryan Jordan, the story unfolds like a soap opera. In summary though, issues in the background of politics and lack of funding threatened the Kings season before it began.
Stats Behind the Season
For all the rhetoric that ‘behind the scenes issues do not affect the players’ it is apparent that the Kings have continued their preseason disorder onto the field. Having conceded 26 tries, the most in the competition in four matches and a massive 200 points conceded, it does not bode well for the rest of the season. With an average of 28 missed tackles a match and the lowest tackle percentage of all teams at a lowly 76% it is difficult to imagine any improvement from the Kings.
Not only is their defence, a huge issue but they also rank last place in clean breaks, defenders beaten and attacking metres made. With a misfiring attack and nothing to fall back on in defence, then Kings supporters face a long season.
Rest of the Season and Beyond
Statistics can often be misleading but upon reading the data surrounding the Kings it is apparent that they are crystal clear. Yes, they have faced tough matches in the opening rounds against the Chiefs and Sharks at home, and the Crusaders and Hurricanes away but Super Rugby does not really have any easy matches. Failure to gain any bonus points in any of these matches mean they sit ‘rock bottom of the ladder’ and their best chance to turn their season around arrives in PE in the form of the Sunwolves.
Salvage a victory there and the wooden spoon may not be theirs to behold come the end of May. Lose and it’s hard to honestly see where they could possibly pick up a win at all.
Sunwolves
A Rugby World Cup miracle inspired a nation who were largely untaken with the fantastic sport of rugby union, so especially after Japan beat South Africa in the last minute of the pool stages, rugby erupted onto the scene. Domestic rugby in Japan has seen 13 seasons of the Top League, a competition battled out for by 16 sides from across the country. Seen by many an international fan as the place used by ‘star players’ to boost their coffers before retirement with some notable players such as George Gregan and Shane Williams recently spending time plying their trade in Japan. Rugby in Japan, however, has found a new lease of life as many of the country’s own rising stars and players at their peak from around the world helped to increase the profile of the sport. The Sunwolves inclusion in Super Rugby only boosted hopes of a truly global expansion of the game.
Facing similar difficulties to the Kings, the Sunwolves left it late in preseason to even announce their coaching set up and even later to confirm a playing roster. Attracting a number of Japanese internationals to the franchise as well as some impressive marquee players from around the world, including Tusi Pisi and Andrew Durutalo, expectation were high at the inception. Heading into their historic opening round match against the Lions, hopes surrounding the club were all positive, despite organisational difficulties faced in getting the franchise up and running.
Stats Behind the Season
Mirrored to their opponents by Round Six [the Kings] the Sunwolves have lost four out of four matches so far. The huge difference in impacting on the success of each franchise however, is the Japanese sides ability to gain a losing bonus point in two of their four matches. They came within a single point of the Cheetahs and only three of the Bulls, as they narrowly lost out in what were both epic contests. The saving grace for the Sunwolves is the presence and kicking ability of Tusi Pisi, the Manu Samoa fly half has excelled this season. With a personal successful kicking percentage of 94% from (for players who have attempted 15 or more shots at goal) For that, Pisi is the highest ranked kicker in the competition.
Whilst as a side, they are fourth in the rankings of kicking percentage with 80% which with this rounds opponent having flanker Chris Cloete included who is the top ranked player for penalties concede–that fact will be a vital piece of intelligence for the Sunwolves to hold. Whilst kicking will help keep them in matches, in order to win them, they must improve from being one of the worst placed sides for lineout wins. This needs to be rectified with one horrendous example currently going viral from the match against the Bulls.
More positive stats are that Pisi has been ably assisted by Akhito Yamada who sits third equal on the top try scorer rankings with four to his name. His hatrick was sensational and his step is a wonder to behold.
Rest of the Season
This must-win match for both of the Kings and Sunwolves in Round Six may well hold disappointment for both sides if they were only able to battle to a draw. The Japanese side will be looking for a first ever victory and it will a huge undertaking in what is their true first match away from home (both matches in Singapore being designated home matches). Following the huge match up in PE they face even sterner tests away to the Stormers and Cheetahs before returning to welcome the other new boys, the Jaguares to Tokyo. As with the Kings, it is hard to see a victory this season coming from any other match than this Round Six clash. With no relegation, the match is purely based on pride, of which both franchises need a healthy dose of as the season progresses.
Jaguares
When the Union Argentina de Rugby (UAR) announced the Jaguares franchise into Super Rugby, the world of rugby stood to attention. Here was another success story of the expansion of rugby in South America following upon the back of the triumph of the national sides inclusion in The Rugby Championship. Their inclusion in the 2012 tournament ensured that Argentina firmly had a foot in the door of top level of Southern hHmisphere rugby after exploring the potential avenue of joining the northern sides due to the proximity of their players competing in many of Europe’s club competitions. That, however, did not come to fruition and Argentina has steadily improved playing annually against the former ‘Tri-Nations’ competitors.
In contrast to the difficulties faced by the Sunwolves and Kings, preparations for this season by the Jaguares were settled and came with an fresh air of confidence. Having announced an impressive array of local talent and international stars returning to Argentina from overseas, the roster looked impressively intimidating. Powerfully led from the front by Agustin Creevy, on paper the squad was bristling with talent shaped to play in a similar physical vein as the national side with backs out wide brimming with confidence to score the kinds of excellent tries Los Pumas fans have become accustomed too.
Stats Behind the Season
The Jaguares exceeded all ambitions as they beat the Cheetahs by a point in the opening round of the Super Rugby expansion. In a contest that laid witness to the type of running rugby that always keeps fans on the edge of their seats, the Jaguares got off to the ‘perfect start’. This is emphasized by the fact that they beat on average 29.3 defenders per game–the most of any team this season. Coupled with the 3rd best rank in carries and from statistics alone, it is possible to imagine the style of rugby they offer up.
The desire and intent to attack from anywhere on the field has ensured they have managed to at least take a losing bonus point from every match this year. The Jaguares downfall so far lies in defence, with only an 80% successful tackle rate (the second worst in completion) and a high missed tackle count average of 22.0 (14th out of all sides). With an improved defensive effort, it is not difficult to imagine the Jaguares securing yet more victories this season. The Blues will do best to watch their line on Saturday.
Rest of the Season
The Jaguares are leading the way in terms of the three Super Rugby expansion teams, even though they only sit 3rd in their conference, six points behind the Lions. A tough test in Round Six against the Auckland side will test the men from Argentina but having pushed the Sharks, Stormers and Chiefs all the way so far in 2016, they will be brimming with confidence. The Blues have faltered since their opening round win over the Highlanders and a second Jaguares win may well be on the cards.
Looking further ahead, it is difficult to imagine that they will be pushing for qualification in the playoffs but the Jaguares certainly have the quality and ability to push on throughout the season. With a difficult tour now of New Zealand facing them, they will be aiming to compete there and even looking for back-to-back victories against the Sunwolves and Kings in succession, come Rounds Nine and Ten.
This year may not be their year to make the finals but in the coming seasons, they will definitely be contenders.
The Super Rugby expansion this season has led to many difficulties being raised in terms of logistics, player welfare and a little confusion in the actual tournament format for many fans. It has, however, been a bold and brave move by SANZAAR to drive for evermore lucrative markets and introduce Super Rugby to Japan and Argentina. Already, the possibility of further expansion is being brought up with the call for a Pacific Island side and other fresh markets. Ultimately that will not occur until the success of this latest change can be fully assessed. At this early stage the Sunwolves are struggling to make an impact, whilst the Kings hide in the shadows as the Jaguares really lead the charge of the new sides.
Come the end of the season, it will be possible to look back retrospectively and review the Super Rugby expansion data but until then, it remains to be seen what surprises these sides have in store for the world of rugby.
All statistics courtesy of Opta Sports
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