The first major derby of the year is upon us in Week 3! The first installment of the 2016 Cali Classico series will take place in Carson this season. Of course, MLS chose to put it on a Saturday and not have it on national television. It’s a good guess that their reasoning is to boost more MLS Live subscribers, because this is a match that people will clamor to watch. Regardless of MLS’ lame business ploy, I will cover it like it is the biggest match of the week.
HERE. WE. GO.
Bingham vs. Whoever LA Decides To Put In Goal: Advantage Bingham
This is a no-brainer. Dan Kennedy is a decent keeper to have, but not elite. Their choice to go with Brian Rowe for the Colorado game was a safe chance to get him minutes. David Bingham didn’t have a fantastic game last week, but really only had two chances to make saves, as the post bailed him out a couple of times and the rest of Portland’s shots were off target. The goal he did let in last week was a weird ball that got through and Bingham was never really in a position to save it.
Taking a look at Rowe and Kennedy, they are both unknown quantities as of this season. Rowe had no chance at stopping that Pappa goal last week so that can’t be held that against him. The only thing I have to show for Kennedy is that awful game in Mexico vs. Santos in the CONCACAF Champions League. Some of that was due to his back line, but some of those he just gave up on. Bingham needs to use this match to lobby for minutes in the upcoming World Cup Qualifiers, since the form of Tim Howard and Brad Guzan has been rather dismal.
The Back lines: Advantage Quakes
The biggest thing about the Earthquakes defense is that they are organized and disciplined. Teams get a lot of shots off on them, usually coming in the last 15 minutes when Dom Kinnear loves to bunker down and defend. With so much experience on the back line, the Earthquakes are great at blocking shots and limiting quality opportunities. The biggest difference between this Galaxy back line and the Earthquake’s back line is that San Jose’s center pair has played together for the last 4 seasons. Add in experience in Marvelle Wynne and a brilliant find in Kip Colvey at left back, the Earthquakes defense is clearly one of the top back lines in the league.
The Galaxy back line has potential, as they have heavy European experience. Just because they have experience in the top leagues, doesn’t mean it will work though. A key concern right now is Van Damme learning to play center back. Not only is he learning a new position, but so is AJ Delagarza. Ashley Cole and Daniel Steres are also newcomers to the backline. With such little experience together on the back line, it’s hard to see the Galaxy defense playing well anytime soon.
The Midfield: Advantage Quakes
The Earthquakes have a really, really good center midfield. All of their midfielders are under the age of 30 with an average age of 26. They have two workhorses in the middle in Anibal Godoy and Fatai Alashe. Godoy puts in tackles all over the field while Alashe provides cover for the back line and intercepts passes with incredible timing. Another thing that is underrated about this center mid pairing is their passing completion percentage is one of the highest in MLS. While they anchor the midfield deep, the wingers provide relief from the mounting pressure, and are great outlets out of defence. Simon Dawkins and Alberto Quintero provide excellent service from out wide and will certainly give Chris Wondolowski plenty of quality looks.
The Galaxy midfield, on the other hand, is out of shape and still adjusting to playing with each other. The losses of Juninho and Marcelo Sarvas over the last few seasons have crippled their midfield and rendered it short of true quality depth. While boasting big name midfielders like Steven Gerrard and Nigel De Jong, they are out of shape and lack quality on the wings. The one bright spot is Mike Magee, who was exceptional week one. We’ll see if he can create his opening night magic, because with out him the Galaxy midfield is devoid of any creativity. The Quakes simply have chemistry, and are in much better shape than the Galaxy midfield. Expect the Earthquakes to dominate the middle on Saturday.
Forwards: Tie
It can be so tough to discount the strike partnership in LA. That position has the most quality of anywhere on the team, but their issue so far has been getting Giovanni Dos Santos, Robbie Keane, and Gyasi Zardes to play together. Zardes, an out and out striker, has been relegated to the wing in favor of a front pairing of Dos Santos and Keane. This pairing has basically failed since Dos Santos was signed. Keane is always a difficult striker to play with, but they won an MLS cup with him and Zardes paired together. If Bruce decides to come to his senses and relegate Gio to the bench or switch him out wide, they may fix their issues. Sadly for Zardes (not for me!), I don’t see Arena doing that.
The Earthquakes on the other hand have a stellar partnership up front that has the lethal combination of production and chemistry. Wondolowski looks like the 30 year old Wondo out there, while Quincy Amarikwa has stepped up as a lethal second punch. Wondo’s movement is incredibly difficult to track, and Amarkiwa punches well above his weight physically. Their understanding of where to be, and where the other is going makes this one of the best striker partnerships in MLS. The reason I set this as a tie is because I believe that Galaxy strikeforce can be lethal if they ever get to their potential. I don’t think it’s there yet, but it is possible. For that I still respect the players they are rolling out. The Quakes though are producing, and that’s going to be a huge key for the Earthquakes on Saturday.
Predictions:
Lineup:
There are two lineups here. The one on the left would be what I expect Dominic Kinnear to roll out. The other is something that I would play.
I would expect Dom to roll out the one on the left because it brought them plenty of success last week. It’s his typical 4-4-2 with the deeper lying midfielders, as Wondolowski naturally drops deep to provide the attacking buildup a number 10 would.
To switch it up, I focused on production. Matias Perez Garcia seems to pick up a goal and assist every time he plays in the Cali Classico. He is a DP midfielder, and while he was suspended for the match against Colorado, I don’t think Kinnear wanted him out there making his first appearance at the same time Alashe was.
Garcia is a key playmaker though, and having Wondolowski drop deep and play the Number 10 role exclusively would be a great idea. The Galaxy will likely play a 4-4-2 of some sort, and stacking the midfield against them wouldn’t be the worst option. It’s what they actually did in their 1-0 win in August last year. It wouldn’t surprise me if Dom rolled out either of these lineups as both have had recent success.
Score: 3-1 Quakes
LA has a lot of issues still, and the Earthquakes are a disciplined team that knows how to play together. Wondolowski get’s a goal and Dawkins breaks the duck and get’s his first of the season. The Quakes will continue their flying start and add a win, and a Cali Classico victory to their slate so far.
