UFC Fight Night 85 takes place on Saturday, March 19 in Brisbane, Australia and features two of the UFC’s most experienced, storied veterans. Frank Mir has essentially grown up in the UFC octagon, and Mark Hunt has fought in almost every major promotion since the primordial days in MMA. While the main event will likely be a huge draw for any and all fans of the sport, it bears little relevance in the heavyweight division, as neither man is likely to fight for the title. That brings us to the co-main event, an intriguing and pertinent fight between Hector Lombard and Neil Magny in one of the UFC’s deepest divisions. Here, I will discuss the keys to victory for each fighter, examining their respective strengths and weaknesses.
Neil Magny and Hector Lombard may find themselves in title contention with a decisive victory. Magny has been on a tear in the past several years, earning a seven-fight win streak before being submitted by BJJ virtuoso Demian Maia, only to rebound with two victories over Erick Silva and Kelvin Gastelum, respectively. Lombard would be on a three-fight win streak if it weren’t for a failed PED test for desoxymethyltestosterone, resulting in his victory over Josh Burkman being overturned to a no-contest. The former Bellator middleweight champion who once held an impressive 25-fight win streak, has 19 wins by KO and is one of the scariest power punchers we’ve seen in the sport. Having last fought at UFC 182 in January of 2015, Lombard will return from a year long suspension to face the #9 ranked welterweight fighter Magny.
What makes this fight interesting is the strategy and the tactics required by each man to achieve victory. Because of the stark contrast in style, both Lombard and Magny must solve a unique puzzle by shutting down his opponent’s game plan. It should come as no surprise that Magny will need to keep this fight at his range, establishing distance early with a whipping jab and staying light on his feet. Unlike Lombard, Magny is a cardio machine, and might possess the best endurance of any fighter in his division. He knows he can outwork Lombard, but he also cannot rely on simply keeping distance the entire fight. He needs an answer to Lombard’s stalking attack and ability to cut off the cage, in addition to his world-class judo.
Most of Lombard’s opponents have had a sizable height and reach advantage, especially considering Lombard fought most of his career at 185, against much bigger men. He has outstanding takedowns from the clinch, utilizing foot sweeps and trips to get his opponents to the mat. These techniques were on full display against Jake Shields, who himself is a world-class grappler, and Lombard completely demolished Shields everywhere the fight took place. Fans were justifiably impressed by Lombard’s ground game against Shields, who never mounted any meaningful offense during the entire fight.
Lombard knows he can end this fight with one shot, but headhunting is often a poor strategy. Looking for the knockout often leads to a decision loss, and Lombard can’t afford any steps backward if he wants to become champion in the UFC. At 38 years old and facing the new breed of MMA fighters, Lombard has a small window of opportunity to make his mark in an oversaturated welterweight landscape. While he needs to preserve energy in this fight, he can’t be too patient without being picked apart and gradually dismantled by the technical striking, movement, and versatility that Magny possesses. He’ll need to throw lots of leg kicks to Magny’s lead leg in order to slow down the movement of “The Gazelle,” and to find his range before setting up his punches. Because Lombard has been so successful with his power punching, he’s become predictable and will need to demonstrate an evolved striking style if he wants to compete with Magny.
Movement is all the rage in MMA these days, so don’t be surprised to see Magny use lateral movement to set up a variety of kicks from odd angles. Magny needs to earn Lombard’s respect early in this fight to stop the Cuban juggernaut from stalking him down and winging humongous hooks – punches that can knock a fighter out through his guard. Covering up against Hector Lombard is tantamount to stopping a semi-truck with a floored gas pedal using a row of sandbags: it might soften the impact, but not to any meaningful degree. If Magny can earn Lombard’s respect by landing several good shots to the body and head of Lombard, he can keep his opponent guessing long enough to find his rhythm and set up a nice TKO victory. Magny has shown remarkable improvement in his ground game, but he is unlikely to be successful taking Lombard down.
Tim Boetsch, who fought Lombard in the judoka’s UFC debut, commented after the fight that trying to take Lombard down was like trying to pick up a brick wall. His colossal strength and low center of gravity will make takedowns a far-fetched tactic for Magny, and he won’t want to hang out against the cage for very long either. The shorter man will feel like a behemoth against the cage if he can push off the ground and lean into Magny, using his head to control Magny’s spine while landing short punches. We’ve seen the kind of damage short shots can do when launched from a man built like a tank (remember Shane Carwin and Frank Mir?), and there is little-to-no point in trying to block anything Lombard throws at you. Magny simply has to get out of the way, or establish a perfect striking rhythm to interrupt Lombard’s striking.
Magny’s best chance of winning this fight is through tactics, not strategy. The strategy is obvious to anyone who’s seen both men fight. It’s the tactics, however, that lend themselves to perfect execution by confusing and frustrating the other fighter. Magny’s tactics will likely involve a snapping jab, vacillating lateral movement, and combination striking that sets up heavy kicks. Magny has two possibilities to win this fight with his striking: he can outwork Lombard, interrupt his rhythm and movement and just overwhelm him with pure volume, or he can employ a variety of combination strikes to land a head kick, perhaps using a delayed timing to catch Lombard out of position or with his guard down. Magny doesn’t have the one-shot knockout power that Lombard has, but he’s more than capable of finishing fights. Prior to the Maia loss, Magny had finished his last three fights, submitting Kiichi Kunimoto and stopping William Macario and Hyun Gyu Lim by TKO. He has the tenacity and the fortitude to finish fights without headhunting for that one big shot.
Both fighters came in on the mark at exactly 170 lbs for their fight, each looking in great shape. Physically, neither man has looked better, and this will undoubtedly be a phenomenal fight. Magny has an unbelievable ability to recover and has a diverse arsenal of attack, while Lombard might be the hardest puncher in the division, right up there with teammate and champion Robbie Lawler and title contender Tyron Woodley. Whoever wins this fight may very well find himself in title contention following the winner of Lawler / Woodley and MacDonald / Thompson. In the heavily stacked welterweight division, there is no room for mistakes. The top 10 fighters all possess lethal weapons that can shut the lights off and end anyone’s night.
Stay tuned, folks!
