Even before the 2016 NFL off-season began, the Oakland Raiders, long an NFL punchline, were trendy playoff picks for the following season. Between quarterback Derek Carr, pass rusher Khalil Mack, and wide receiver Amari Cooper, the Raiders had no shortage of promising young talent. Paired with a patient and passionate coach like Jack Del Rio, and a cast of talented veterans, the sky appeared to be the limit for the Silver and Black heading into 2016.
Then the off-season began, and it started with a bang. Not only did the Raiders retain the services of punter Marquette King and left tackle Donald Penn, but they acquired several high profile pieces. With the addition of Bruce Irvin from Seattle, Oakland finally has a second pass rusher to pair with Khalil Mack. This forces teams to pick their poison on defense. Opponents can either evenly distribute blocks to attempt to slow down both men, or they can focus on one rusher, and leave the other one with a one on one situation.
The Raiders also signed cornerback Sean Smith away from their hated rivals the Kansas City Chiefs. Paired with David Amerson, the Raiders secondary will be significantly better than it was in 2015, where they gave up over 258 yards through the air per game, including one Sunday, where Steelers wideout Antonio Brown had 17 catches for 284 yards.
The Raiders shocked the world in day one of free agency when they managed to sign Baltimore’s most valuable free agent, guard Kelechi Osemele. When Osemele lines up next to Penn, stud guard Gabe Jackson, center Rodney Hudson, and right tackle Austin Howard, the Raiders have, on paper, the best offensive line in pro football. Games are won and lost in the trenches, and the addition of Osemele not only gives the young Derek Carr a safer pocket, but helps the Raiders move the ball on the ground where they struggled in 2015. Raiders running back Latavius Murray was seventh in the NFL in rushing with 1,066 yards, but as a team, they were 28th.
The only notable loss that the Raiders suffered this off-season was the retirement of future Hall of Fame safety Charles Woodson. The nucleus of the Raiders remains intact. With Denver losing most of their defense and struggling to find a quarterback, the AFC West is up for grabs.
Realistic Oakland Raiders Expectations
Considering that the Raiders, who have drafted extremely well over the last two years, still have eight picks in the upcoming NFL draft, it’s safe to say that the Raiders will be very much improved in 2016. The only question that remains now is how good can these Raiders be? Will they miss the playoffs for the 14th straight season? Will they finally retake the AFC West? Are they Super Bowl contenders?
The answer lies somewhere in the middle. While the Raiders are obviously playoff contenders on paper, a Super Bowl is rarely won in free agency. Unlike Madden, players are not plug and play. There’s no guarantee that the Raiders get the same performances out of their acquisitions that they gave on other teams. There are injuries, other teams improve, and certain players don’t progress.
Having said that, the loyal subjects of Raider Nation have a lot to be excited about in 2016. Derek Carr will still have Michael Crabtree, Amari Cooper and tight end Clive Walford to catch his passes. Behind a revamped offensive line, the Raiders will likely add another running back to help Latavius Murray in the backfield. Even with injuries to Cooper and the offensive line in 2015, Carr still managed to throw for nearly 4,000 yards with 32 touchdowns. In 2016, Carr and the offense will likely look to improve on those numbers.
On defense, they’ve improved across the board. The Raiders will miss Woodson, but the addition of Smith will prove to soften that blow significantly. Should the Raiders choose to re-sign linebacker Aldon Smith, who is suspended until November, they’ll have an extremely dangerous pass rush.
In 2016, the Raiders will have a competitive schedule, but it’s nowhere near as bad as it has been in recent memory. Last season, eight of Oakland’s 16 games were against playoff teams. The Raiders split the series with the eventual Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos and were swept by the Kansas City Chiefs. The Raiders were blown out by the Cincinnati Bengals in week one, lost a heartbreaker to the Pittsburgh Steelers halfway through the year, and couldn’t pull off wins against the NFC North’s Minnesota Vikings or Green Bay Packers.
The biggest challenge for the Raiders inside the AFC West will be the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs beat the Raiders in both games in 2015, and didn’t struggle in either game. The Chiefs have only strengthened on offense, and will be a big challenge for Oakland as they duel for the division. The Broncos and Chargers don’t look to be contenders any time soon, as the Chargers have become a bit of a joke and the Broncos lost most of their defense in free agency. This season, the only playoff teams they’ll face outside of the division are the Houston Texans and the defending NFC champion Carolina Panthers. On paper, the improved Raiders should be able to beat the likes of Houston, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Buffalo, and Tampa Bay without great difficulty.
Teams like Atlanta, Baltimore, New Orleans, and Indianapolis struggled in 2015, but will likely be much improved next season. All four teams feature a dangerous quarterback, and will not make anything easy for the Raiders. Oakland was able to defeat a mostly healthy Baltimore team in week two of last season. But the additions of Eric Weddle and Mike Wallace, along with the return of Joe Flacco, make the Ravens a dangerous team. They’re especially dangerous because the Raiders will have to travel to the eastern time zone to face the Ravens, where they have struggled mightily over the last ten years.
The return of Andrew Luck makes the Colts an unpredictable team. With a talented player like Luck under center, Indianapolis could be playoff contenders or struggle to another 8-8 season. If the Raiders are able to generate a pass rush it could prove useful. The Colts haven’t been able to find a run game since Peyton Manning was their quarterback.
The biggest game on the Raiders schedule is a home bout against the Carolina Panthers. Cam Newton is the reigning Offensive Player of the Year as well as the MVP. Looking past a shaky Super Bowl performance, Newton will look to make life very difficult for Khalil Mack and the Raiders defense. If the Raiders can win this game, they’ll have sent a message to the rest of the league that they are for real.
So, on paper, it’s conceivable, if not likely, that the Raiders will be able to win nine or ten games next season. That should lock up a wild card spot at the very least. This would be a huge step for the Raiders, who haven’t appeared in the post-season since they were blown out in Super Bowl XXXVII by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2002.
Beyond that, it’s unclear how far the Raiders will be able to go. While they’re shoo-ins to make the post-season, it’s unlikely that they’re ready to make a push for the Lombardi Trophy. Teams like Tom Brady’s Patriots and Big Ben’s Steelers are still around, and while they may not have as much youthful potential, they’re far more experienced. Those teams are always in the conversation for the Super Bowl because they’ve been there before and won.
