All season long the narrative has been the same. This season is all about the Golden State Warriors. The historically great defending NBA Champions have set a pace nobody else has in the NBA. Ever. Joining them in the contender bracket (despite the Warriors’ making it their title to lose) are the San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder and Cleveland Cavaliers. Besides them, who should the NBA be paying attention to come playoff time? Last Word Hoops takes a look at the teams you should be tuning into come this April onwards.
Tier One (The “Obvious” Teams)
Golden State Warriors
How can we not mention them? 60-6, with two historically great shooters (Steph Curry and Klay Thompson) ably helped by one of the deepest supporting casts in the league and a one-of-a-kind small ball forward (Draymond Green) helping change the landscape of the league. Curry has defended his MVP crown with an uncanny ease, and has set all kinds of records in the process. It has been a joy to watch.
Reality is it’s the Warriors, then everybody else. Despite the Spurs brilliance, nobody has quite figured out how to decrypt the league’s best offense (112.8 points per 100 possessions) and they sit fifth defensively despite appearing quite lazy on that end at times, especially post All-Star. That’s how good they are.
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs are 57-10, on pace for 68-69 perhaps even 70 wins and nobody is talking about them. Luckily, that’s just the way they like it. LaMarcus Aldridge is finding his groove, averaging 20.1ppg (52 percent shooting) and 8.8rpg since the All-Star break. Kawhi Leonard has come into his own as the franchise cornerstone, and he too has averaged 24.5ppg (50-39-92 percent splits), 7.4rpg, 2.9apg and 2.0spg since making his first appearance at All-Star weekend.
If anyone can take down the Warriors come playoff time, it’s Gregg Popovich and his historically good defense (holding opponents to 95.5 points per 100 possessions) alongside one of the most efficient offenses in the league.
Tier Two (Really Good, But…)
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder are the great enigma of the league right now. They’ve struggled since the All-Star break, and have lost a league-worst 12 games after leading the game heading into the fourth quarter. They have had those issues all season long in that aspect, and continue to be inconsistent defensively. They have shown the ability to lock in when needed, but their body of work indicates there are plenty of bad habits that still need addressing. Billy Donovan also still be seems to figuring out his best rotation.
However the display this week against the in-form Portland Trail Blazers showed what the Thunder can do when firing on all cylinders. They led by as much as 42 points and ran the Blazers out of the building at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Rotations will shorten come playoff time, and the Thunder have been at their best in the season’s biggest games. If they can sort out their fourth quarter issues, they have as good a chance as anyone at challenging Golden State.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Any team with LeBron James has a chance at a Championship. Kyrie Irving is returning to his best, and will be key to any serious contending hopes. Kevin Love is the big unknown, and is likely playing for his career in Cleveland come playoff time. Channing Frye is a better 3 point shooter and a better defender, two of the main requirements of the stretch four role in the Cavaliers system.
One of the problems for the Cavaliers is the sheer amount of money they are spending on bigs they can’t all get on the floor. Tristan Thompson, Love, Frye, Timofey Mozgov all are paid serious dollars but come playoff time can the Cavaliers legitimately get more than one of them on the floor at any given time (particularly against the Warriors). What they have works in the regular season, but can it beat the best in seven games? LeBron accepting a role similar to Draymond Green as a unique small ball playmaker could be key to their title chances.
Los Angeles Clippers
Are the Clippers better without Blake Griffin? That is the big question. It’s a simple answer really, no they are not. In his absence they’ve been blown out by the Thunder, Cavaliers, Spurs and the Raptors. Whilst they’ve had good wins, their schedule for the most part has been fairly easy and they’ve beaten teams they are expected to beat.
To stand any chance come playoff time, they need Griffin. With a likely second matchup with the Warriors awaiting (who they match up with well), the Clippers need Griffin to get healthy fast. They may have finally put together a good enough defense (7th in the league) to mount a serious challenge.
Toronto Raptors
Can they win a playoff series at last? That’s the big question with Toronto. This year they look like a team evolved. Their offense has serious fire (ranking fifth at 107.4 points per 100) and they can go as far as their all stars Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan can take them. This is despite starting Luis Scola at power forward the majority of the season.
A concern though: they are conceding 108.3 points per 100 defensively since the All-Star break. That’s got to be fixed before the playoffs. But make no mistake, they belong in the second-tier contender bracket with the Thunder, Cavaliers and Clippers. This year’s Raptors are legitimate.
Tier Three (Fun as hell, but not there yet)
Any Western Conference team ranked 5-8
Portland are so much fun, but they aren’t making it past the first round. Flaws are exposed in the playoffs, and they have too many defensively to make it work. If teams focus on stopping the undersized Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, can the Blazers role players help fill that void? Dallas are being coached out of their skin by the genius of Rick Carlisle, but they are heading for a first round sweep (if Utah don’t catch them).
Houston have so many flaws that simply cannot be ignored, and they can’t stop getting in their own way. A team led by James Harden and Dwight Howard simply does not work. They have a chance at a first round upset, but beyond that? None. Memphis are the NBA’s version of the The Walking Dead. Their injury crisis is depressing to see, and it might be time to give Dave Joerger some Coach of the Year attention. He’s working miracles.
Atlanta Hawks
After being obliterated by the Cavaliers in last year’s playoffs, the Hawks flaws were exposed. Despite Mike Budenholzer’s brilliant coaching exploits, it remains to be seen if they can make any serious noise beyond the regular season. They are led by the forever underrated Paul Millsap and Al Horford (who is an unrestricted free agent this summer), but Kyle Korver’s legs appear to be going and Jeff Teague’s days in Atlanta appear numbered (Horford’s too). They might be the league’s second best team defensively, but this might be the beginning of the end of the Hawks as we know them.
Boston Celtics
No team gets more out of his roster top to bottom than maybe what Brad Stevens does in Boston. He is already rated as one of the league’s best coaches, and the five-year deal given to him seems like another Danny Ainge masterstroke. They have so many assets their struggling to give away or turn into the superstar they crave, who they’ll hope to acquire this summer.
Come playoff time, can their host of role players be relied on to make big plays when points are hard to come by? It’s a big unknown for the Celtics. That doesn’t mean they won’t be a tough out come playoff time, and should be able to win a first round series.
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets have flown under the radar all season long, under the ownership of Michael Jordan and their underrated head coach Steve Clifford whose put together a tough defensive unit who can now hit threes. Nicolas Batum has been a brilliant acquisition they will hope to sign to an extension this summer. Without Al Jefferson and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist for the majority of the season, they’ve crafted out a top 10 offense and defense despite their injury list. The Hornets have the league’s sixth best record at home, and the ability to be a tricky first round matchup.
There are honourable mentions to teams like the Indiana Pacers (bottom 10 offense), Chicago Bulls, Washington Wizards and Detroit Pistons, but there are no guarantees the latter three will be in the final playoff seedings.
The NBA has certainly become top heavy under the Warriors rule, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t a bunch of other fun teams who will make the first round interesting particularly in the Eastern Conference. Often it comes down to match ups, and this could be the deciding factor in some of those series. 38 days and counting until it all begins…
All statistics taken from stats.nba.com unless otherwise stated.
