With the trade deadline passed, every team in the NHL knows where they stand, and while some are gearing up for what they hope will be a long and successful run, others are simply playing out the string and waiting for the draft in June.
The LWOS hockey department has taken a division-by-division snapshot of where each team is at going down the stretch run of the 2015-16 season, and what each team can expect by season’s end, taking into account recent deadline moves, as well as the team’s remaining strength of schedule.
I calculated every team’s remaining strength of schedule. Bruins will have a tougher draw down the stretch than most pic.twitter.com/Xdt5QAz3ah
— dom luszczyszyn (@omgitsdomi) March 3, 2016
Today, a look at the Atlantic Division, brought to you by Charlie Clarke and Ken Hill.
The NHL Down The Stretch: Atlantic Division
1. Tampa Bay Lightning – 39-23-5, 83 points, 36 ROW
After a somewhat lacklustre first half of the season, the Lightning have finally returned to the form we saw at the end of last season when they appeared in the Stanley Cup Final. When LWOS released our mid-season reviews, the Bolts were sitting sixth in the Atlantic, not even in a playoff spot. However, they have completely turned it around in the last few months. They’re now tied in points with the Boston Bruins for first in the division, both teams sitting on 83 points (the Lightning are technically first, since they have more wins). With a game in hand, Tampa has an advantage in securing the top spot.
On March 5th, Tampa set a franchise record by defeating Carolina 4-3 in overtime, for their ninth win in a row. That says a lot about how far this team has come this year. It was no secret the Lightning dressing room had been somewhat distracted, with Jonathan Drouin’s holdout and the rumours swirling around captain Steven Stamkos. In fact, the Bolts are 9-3 since GM Steve Yzerman announced on February 15th that Stamkos would not be traded before the deadline.
Now that Drouin has rejoined the Syracuse Crunch, both major distractions are out of the way for now. With the final stretch of the season upon us, the focus for the Lightning now shifts to making another deep playoff run this year. The triplets line of Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson, and Nikita Kucherov has heated up in a big way, and the three players who were a key part of the team’s run last year will be just as crucial this season. Kucherov is leading the whole team in scoring, with 54 points, and is on pace to surpass his career high from the previous year of 65.
Jonathan Marchessault is another name that has become more prominent in the Bolts organization this year, stepping up in the absence of Jonathan Drouin. The rookie has made a name for himself as a depth scoring forward, supporting the fourth line alongside Vlad Namestnikov and Brian Boyle. In net, of course, Ben Bishop is as stable as ever, his .927 save percentage good enough for fourth in the NHL. Tampa Bay now looks geared to take a run at the Cup, which did not seem possible in January.
2. Boston Bruins – 38-23-7, 83 points, 34 ROW
The Bruins are another team that have had a resurgence of late. After missing the playoffs last season, there was much doubt surrounding the team in October. For a large portion of this season, they haven’t been all that convincing either. However, they’ve certainly pulled it together, now not only comfortably in a playoff spot but in close contention for the division title.
The Bruins bought at the trade deadline, shipping out picks and a prospect in Anthony Camara to bring in defenceman John-Michael Liles and Lee Stempniak, both of whom are perennial deadline rentals. Neither player is expected to put the team over the edge, but they’re helpful depth additions to a team that could conceivably make a run to the Conference Final or beyond. Stempniak in particular has already had an impact on the team, contributing an impressive 6 points in just 5 games in Boston.
Injuries were a large contributing factor in some of Boston’s struggles earlier this season, but now that they’re mostly healthy, we’re seeing the true Boston Bruins. They’re the highest scoring team in the division, with Patrice Bergeron on pace for his first 70-point season since 2007, and players like Loui Eriksson providing some much-needed secondary scoring (although he’s cooled down since the midway point of the season).
The Bruins are one of the most experienced teams in the Eastern Conference, and as such cannot be counted out once the playoffs begin. They could end up anywhere from a disappointing first-round exit to an appearance in the Stanley Cup Final. With their tough remaining schedule, they’re likely hoping just to get into the playoffs without any major injuries.
3. Florida Panthers – 36-21-9, 81 points, 30 ROW
After leading the Atlantic for so long this season, the other teams in the division were bound to catch up to the Florida Panthers. That’s not to say they’ve slacked off, though. The Panthers remain an exciting team, led in scoring by the 44-year-old cyborg Jaromir Jagr, whose 49th point of the year, an assist against the Boston Bruins, moved him past Gordie Howe for third on the all-time scoring list, with a staggering 1851 points.
Florida were one of the most active teams at the trade deadline, dishing out draft picks around the league and bringing in Jakub Kindl, Teddy Purcell, and reigning Lady Byng Trophy winner Jiri Hudler. They also dealt young forward Brandon Pirri, freeing up a spot in the lineup.
Recently, however, they’ve underperformed, managing only 4 wins from their last 10 games. The deadline additions haven’t had much time to settle in and start producing yet, but they will be expected to help right the ship before the playoffs. Goalie Roberto Luongo will also be expected to remain rock-solid in net behind a largely inexperienced defensive core featuring starlet Aaron Ekblad, Dmitry Kulikov, and Alex Petrovic. He’s been great so far, apparently drinking the same water as Jagr as he’s among the top goalies in the league with a .922 save percentage.
It’s hard to say how the Panthers will do towards the end of the season. They have shown flashes of brilliance, but are, for the most part, quite a young team with little playoff experience. The top line of Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, and Jagr must continue their dominance, but Florida will also need their secondary scorers to contribute if they want to make a serious run in the postseason.
4. Detroit Red Wings – 32-23-11, 75 points, 30 ROW
The Detroit Red Wings are another team you can just never count out. However, the wheels are in serious danger of falling off right now. The Wings are 3-5-2 in their last ten games, making them one of the coldest teams in the NHL. Currently sitting in the last wildcard spot in the East and hanging on to their lead by just two points over Philadelphia, Detroit is in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time in 25 years.
Unsure of which direction they were headed, the Red Wings didn’t do much at the trade deadline, only shipping out defenceman Jakub Kindl. They could’ve used some offensive help, though, as the Wings are one of the lowest-scoring teams currently in a playoff spot. In fact, they’re the only team currently in the playoff picture that has a negative goal differential, and Detroit’s is a worrying -10 at that. Rookie Dylan Larkin, who’s in the mix for the Calder Trophy this year after a red-hot start, has cooled off tremendously of late. Larkin is currently on a seven-game pointless streak, and lost his lead in team scoring to the captain Henrik Zetterberg. That doesn’t mean Zetterberg has been hot recently though, as he’s on an eight-game scoring drought himself.
Detroit has had help in goal, with Petr Mrazek having a breakout year. He and his .924 save percentage have kept the Red Wings in a lot of games. However, the Wings still need to shore up some defensive issues.
Not all is lost for Detroit, obviously. The season is very much salvageable, and they are still in a playoff spot. At this point, the Wings will be putting their all into just getting to the playoffs, because once you get there, Detroit’s experience could lead them to win a series or two.
5. Ottawa Senators – 31-29-8, 70 points, 25 ROW
The Senators are likely Canada’s last hope at having a team in the playoffs. Unfortunately, they’re not particularly close, sitting 5 points behind Detroit for the conference’s final spot. The Sens have been so-so recently, 5-3-2 in their last ten, but haven’t looked much like a team attempting to make a miracle run to the postseason, like they did last year.
The fact is, Ottawa is one of the NHL’s worst defensive teams. Their 212 goals allowed this year is more than any other team, and they have the second-worst penalty kill in the league. They did attempt to bolster their defensive core before the deadline by adding former Maple Leafs captain Dion Phaneuf. The big-bodied Phaneuf has thrived in his new role on the Senators’ second pairing, no longer thrust into the spotlight as he was in Toronto. He has helped the Sens out defensively, and put up 7 points in 14 games.
Ottawa could use some help in goal, as Craig Anderson has been no better than mediocre this year. However, where the Senators actually can claim to be strong is in the scoring department. Erik Karlsson, this season’s clear frontrunner for the Norris Trophy, is a point-a-game player, with 11 goals and 57 assists for a point in each of his 68 games this season. Youngsters Mark Stone and Mike Hoffman have been phenomenal, with 53 and 46 points respectively, both on pace to comfortably top their career highs set last year.
At this point, it seems very unlikely that the Senators can sneak back into the playoff picture, but you never know.
6. Montreal Canadiens – 31-30-6, 68 points, 26 ROW
In our NHL at the Quarter Pole series back in mid-November, the Canadiens were the clear-cut leader in the Atlantic with a nine-point cushion and fans in Montreal were still dreaming of Stanley Cup glory after a 9-0-0 start. By our NHL at the Half series in early January, star netminder Carey Price had already gone down to injury and the Canadiens found themselves plummeting down the standings, but still having some hope for the playoffs. Unfortunately for Montreal fans, as the NHL now heads down the stretch, the possibility of a post-season appearance has all but gone up in smoke, as the team sits seven points out of a wild card spot and needing to jump over five teams to get there.
The fall from the top of the NHL standings can’t be entirely contributed to the loss of Price, as rookie and de facto starter Mike Condon has performed admirably in his stead, yet it’s probably no coincidence that Montreal’s league-leading 2.24 goals against average from last season has ballooned to 2.76 (as if you needed any more proof of Price’s Hart Trophy value).
Offensively, the team has struggled to produce goals, boasting just two 20-goal scorers on the roster and a negative goal differential, despite being one of the better possession teams at five on five. Much of that can be attributed to an anemic power play ranked 24th in the league at 17.1%.
After being a seller at the 2015 deadline, GM Marc Bergevin saw the writing on the way this year and offloaded assets, including forwards Dale Weise, Tomas Fleischmann and Devante Smith-Pelley , while bringing in Stefan Matteau, Phillip Danault, and a 2nd round pick.
The moves were made with an eye towards the offseason, where Montreal’s focus now clearly lies.
7. Buffalo Sabres – 27-32-9, 63 points, 25 ROW
After the disaster that was the 2014-15 edition of the Sabres, which earned them the 2nd overall pick and Jack Eichel, many projected Buffalo to perhaps take a small step towards respectability this season while still remaining a draft lottery team. With less than a quarter of the season to go, the Sabres have proved those prognosticators right.
Offensively, they sit 27th in goals for (160) and 25th in CF% (47.5) at five-on-five, however the club has seen an uptick defensively, at their goals against (179) is actually in the middle third of the league (18th). Much of that can be attributed to the play of goaltenders Chad Johnson, Robin Lehner and Linus Ulmark, who have posted save percentages at or above NHL average. Lehner in particular has been very good since missing the first half of the season, sporting an impressive .927 SV% in 19 appearances.
The play of the aforementioned Eichel has also been a bright spot for the team, as the rookie hasn’t looked out of place with 20 goals (2nd among NHL rookies) and 46 points (also 2nd) while quietly putting himself back into the Calder conversation. Chicago’s Artemi Panarin is still likely to take the award, but that Eichel is among the best rookies in the league is a huge positive for the Sabres moving forward (not that there was much doubt about his potential in the first place).
The Sabres were quiet at the trade deadline, only moving forward Jamie McGinn for a 3rd-rounder, having already jettisoned many of their assets in previous years. The focus for GM Tim Murray and company will once again be squarely on the draft as they play out the string. And while the jump from 54 points (30th in the NHL) last year to 63 points (26th) and counting this year is a promising sign for the future, it does however mean a shot at a top-two pick again becomes much less likely.
8. Toronto Maple Leafs – 22-33-11, 55 points, 16 ROW
The Maple Leafs are, undoubtedly, the worst team in the National Hockey League. They’re 3 points behind Edmonton for last place, or, as some Leafs fans would put it, first in the Auston Matthews sweepstakes. They’ve been hovering around there pretty much all season, though.
The Leafs have the worst goal differential in the NHL at -38, and are among the league’s bottom five in goals scored. The team has notably been trying, unlike the final stretches of the past couple seasons, but the talent is not there.
In the days leading up to the trade deadline, the last-place Maple Leafs stripped down their roster even further, shipping out regulars in the lineup like Dion Phaneuf, Daniel Winnik, Roman Polak, and James Reimer. They also announced that top forwards James van Riemsdyk and Joffrey Lupul would be shut down for the season to heal their respective injuries. This left the team with a lot of holes in the NHL roster, prompting management to reach into their prospect pool in the AHL to give some youngsters a shot.
William Nylander, Zach Hyman, and Nikita Soshnikov (and briefly Kasperi Kapanen) have given Leafs fans a reason to watch the games at the end of this abysmal season. They represent the light at the end of the tunnel for the organization, and have shown exciting flashes of skill in their NHL stints so far.
The Leafs will almost certainly finish at the bottom of the NHL, guaranteed a top-four draft pick. The fans all knew this year would be like this, and will be glad for it to end.
Don’t forget to check out the other articles in this series on the Central Division and the Metropolitan Division. Up next: The Pacific.
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