With the off-season in full effect, all 32 NFL teams are trying to improve on their 2015 seasons. In the NFL, there are only two ways to improve. There’s free agency, a period where teams may sign veterans from other teams whose contracts have expired, and there’s the draft, where teams select the best outgoing collegiate athletes.
Building Through NFL Free Agency Doesn’t Work
Conventional wisdom says the safest way to build a team is through free agency. The players that are eligible for free agency have already played professionally against NFL talent. It’s true that the team has to pay a little more money, but with the added cost comes experience.
However, this isn’t always the case. In basketball and baseball a championship team can be bought for the right price with the right connections, but that often isn’t the case in the NFL. Free agents come with experience but, in the NFL, different teams run different schemes with different results. While some players are successful everywhere they go, every year someone signs a big money contract to play for a team other than their current one, and they don’t pan out.
Last year, the Philadelphia signed 2014’s leading rusher, DeMarco Murray, to a five-year, $42 million dollar contract. Removed from the Dallas Cowboys vaunted offensive line, Murray only managed 702 yards on 193 carries, and was benched in favor of Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles before being traded to the Tennessee Titans this off-season. While with the Detroit Lions, Ndamukong Suh was a disruptive force on the defensive line, and the Miami Dolphins signed him to a six-year, $114 million dollar contract last off-season. In 2015, Suh’s first with the Dolphins, he fizzled out, and only registered 6.5 sacks. That’s not a bad season, but it’s hardly worth the pricetag Suh came with.
Every year, the same few franchises break the bank trying to make an impact in free agency, and every year, they fail. The Washington Redskins, Miami Dolphins, and, until a couple of seasons ago, the Oakland Raiders, overspend in free agency and they never seem to get any better.
In 2011 the Philadelphia Eagles were extremely active in free agency, collecting what Vince Young referred to as the “Dream Team.” The Eagles signed cornerbacks Nnamdi Asomugha, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, defensive end Jason Babin, running back Ronnie Brown, and offensive linemen Ryan Harris and Evan Mathis. With a recently re-signed Michael Vick under center, the Eagles steamed through the off-season and picked up a ton of hype. But Philly wound up going only 8-8 that season, tied for third place in the NFC East and missed the playoffs.
Oddly enough, teams that build through the draft seem to have significantly more success. Teams like the Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks, and New England Patriots have had success over the last few seasons because of the nucleus that they’ve drafted. Over the last two seasons, the Packers have been one of the most dominant teams in the NFC, and the only player on their roster, during that time, that they didn’t draft themselves was pass rusher, Julius Peppers. While the Patriots have proven they have no problem signing a helping free agent hand or two, the biggest reasons for their success have continued to be quarterback Tom Brady, wide receiver Julian Edelman, and tight end Rob Gronkowski, all New England draftees. Seattle drafted a quarterback and an entire defense, and it has propelled them to become one of the best teams in the NFC.
The reality is that while teams already have film of free agents playing against NFL talent, each team is different. Every team runs a different scheme, with different talent, and different coaches. A player could be dominant in one system, and completely worthless in another. As a result, film on free agents can be either very insightful, or completely irrelevant. Free agency is ultimately a crap shoot.
With pre-determined prices already set on each draft pick, teams aren’t as dependent upon rookies to perform as they used to be. Almost ten years ago, the Oakland Raiders signed first overall pick, JaMarcus Russell, to a six-year, $61 million contract. Unfortunately for the Raiders, the former LSU standout ended up as one of the worst quarterbacks in history, and the Raiders suffered for many years, and couldn’t find a franchise quarterback until they drafted Derek Carr in 2014. By contrast, last year, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers drafted quarterback Jameis Winston with the number one overall pick and his contract was only for four years, and $25 million. After one season, Winston looks like a franchise quarterback but, even if he doesn’t pan out, the Buccaneers aren’t dead in the water like the Raiders were.
Through the draft teams can select players they believe will fit their scheme for less money, while taking on less risk.
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