Every season brings renewed optimism in Chicago. This is the year. They’ve finally put all the pieces together to challenge LeBron James’ Cavaliers (or Heat, in days gone by). Every single year, they’ve fallen apart. Injuries are almost always to blame. The coaches push the players too hard, play them too many minutes and they break down. It’s almost a yearly cycle in the Windy City.
Tom Thibodeau was given his marching orders in the summer, after several years of turbulence. He’d found some success as a defensive mastermind, but his fractured relationship with Gus Forman and John Paxson alongside his anaemic offensive struggles led to his demise. Fred Hoiberg arrived, but the Bulls still look a lot like the teams of the Thibodeau era.
At the time of writing they sit at 32-30, sitting in 8th place, one ahead in the loss column of fierce rival Detroit Pistons. They rank a horrendous 26th in offensive efficiency, posting 101.0 points per 100 possessions. They are better defensively, ranking 10th with 102.2 points per 100 possessions. However that’s still a negative net rating of -1.2, not exactly encouraging for a team with high expectations.
They’ve had some encouraging wins, including San Antonio, the Clippers, two each over Oklahoma City and Cleveland and three against Toronto. But they’ve also lost badly to Orlando, Minnesota (twice) and Brooklyn. It seems the majority of the time as if the Bulls are stuck halfway between the identity they created under Thibodeau (a big tough defensive unit) and the one they are trying to forge under Hoiberg (a more balanced team that can space the floor).
This struggle is summed up best looking at their non functioning backcourt. Whether they want to or not, Jimmy Butler and Derrick Rose simply do not work together as the players they are now. Sure a few years ago yes, when Rose was the ball dominant MVP and Butler was the offensively limited perimeter defender, but that was then. Now Butler is by far the superior player, with Rose’s injury history stripping him of the athleticism and confidence that made him into one of the league’s most dominant forces.
Butler is in the first year of a five year, $92 million extension that runs through to 2020 (the final season is a player option). With the ballooning salary cap, this could well prove to be a bargain in years to come. This season he’s averaging 22.4ppg, 5.3rpg, 4.3apg and 1.7spg. However he’s still playing as many minutes as ever, currently averaging 37.8 per game. That’s barely down from the 38.7 he played the last two seasons, which was one of the concerns of Thibodeau’s tenure.
Modern teams are moving away from playing any player heavy minutes, saving them for the postseason. Even younger players are playing less minutes nowadays. It can save them from injuries and ultimately extend careers. This is where the concern comes for Butler. Having returned from 11 games on the sidelines with a knee injury, Butler only returned for one game before having to sit out again in the most recent game with Milwaukee. It’s a theme that’s still causing troubles, even after Thibodeau’s departure. Was it really so wise for Hoiberg to play Butler 21 of 24 first half minutes in his return?
That being said, Butler is the player to build around if they manage him the right away physically. Rose’s decline means they either let his contract run out or aggressively shop him this summer to find a willing trade partner with cap room, otherwise it may mean having to take salary back. The Bulls are smart enough (hopefully) however not to accept this and maintain longterm financial flexibility. Joakim Noah’s contract will expire in the summer, and the former heart and soul of the team has not meshed well with Hoiberg, and will likely see pastures new after being cast out by his new coach.
Pau Gasol is also unlikely to be a Bull after this season finishes, with a $7.7 million player option for next season likely to be declined. This will not be about money though. Rumours flew around at the trade deadline that the Bulls were indeed shopping the Spaniard around, testing the market. Sacramento were the only team with serious and reported interest, and offered Ben McLemore and Kosta Koufos in return for the big man.
Chicago declined, but in hindsight that actually looks like a bad decision. There’s no guarantee that Gasol stays beyond this summer, and despite being described as a key player in Chicago’s future by Forman after the deadline it contradicts the fact they were blatantly shopping the player. McLemore is a nice young player with obvious talent who may just need a fresh start away from the swamp of the Kings organisation. Koufos is a good player on a reasonable contract (first year of a four year, $33 million deal). Most teams in the Bulls situation would have taken that deal without thinking.
But it seems the Bulls don’t know themselves quite where they are. Not good enough to make any noise, but not bad enough to tear it down. But a rebuild or at rebuilding on the fly makes more and more sense for Chicago. Butler’s contract is the only guaranteed deal from 2017/18 onwards (Mike Dunleavy, Doug McDermott, Tony Snell and Bobby Portis all have team/player options likely to be exercised or not on the books by then). Veterans currently on the roster (Taj Gibson, Noah and Rose) are all likely to no longer be on the team and Nikola Mirotic will be up for an extension before 2017/18 starts.
All the more reason to be gathering assets and young players now, saving cap space for when they will have astronomical amounts for when the cap blows past the $100 million mark by that point. The Bulls quite simply need to start learning lessons from years gone by, before they become mistakes the organisation comes to rue in the years to come.
