The hockey cellar dwellers are at the mercy of the NHL lottery system. Come the night of the NHL lottery, there will be 14 general managers with their lucky rabbits foot out on their desks. But given the percentages of winning the lottery, no team can feel good about their chances. With the new system, the teams with the three worse records could fall back as many as three spots in the first round of the upcoming draft. All non-playoff teams also have a shot at the top three picks.
Everyone has a Long Shot
The NHL lottery process enters a new era starting with this years draft. The percentages for winning the number one overall pick remain the same as last year. However, there now will be a lottery for the second and third overall selections as well. After the ping pong balls have decided the number one overall pick, the odds will be statistically readjusted and will be ran two more times. One thing is for sure: the night of the NHL lottery will be must-see-TV.
As we all know, the team with the worst record in the NHL has the highest probability of winning the lottery. However, that number comes in at just 20%. That is just a one in five chance. Second from the bottom in the league has a 13.5% of winning the lottery, while third from the bottom comes in at 11.5% chance of winning the top prize. The remaining 11 teams percentages fall between one and nine and half percent. After the drawing of the number one pick, the percentages for the second and third overall picks are reset. However, the team that has the best chance to win either the next two prized picks are looking at in all likelihood, a percentage between 20 and 30 percent. That’s for the team with the best percentages, and all the other teams percentages go down from there, just like the drawing for the first overall selection. No team can like those odds.
courtesy of https://t.co/nwHzm10eko Today's NHL Draft Lottery Winners are… pic.twitter.com/bFSKQfxw2I
— Puck Prose (@Puck_Prose) February 21, 2016
Potential Windfall
There will be many teams come the night of the lottery that will be thrilled with the new system. These are the teams that just missed the playoffs, but yet they have three bites at the apple to land a top three pick in this years draft. Potentially, teams such as New Jersey, Minnesota, Carolina, Ottawa, Philadelphia and Arizona have to be ticked pink with the new lottery rules. These organizations get the best of both worlds. While they may not make the playoffs, they will have given their fans a competitive season, and may will have three chances to land at the top of the draft and land a potential franchise player.
Because of this, teams like Carolina can feel better about holding on to a player such as Eric Staal (UFA at the end of the season). In years past, teams in the bubble knew they were costing themselves very valuable draft slots and would wind up picking 12th, 13th or 14th instead of fifth or sixth, if they sell and tank the rest of the season. But now with the new lottery rules, teams like the Hurricanes, have seen their draft chances improve dramatically. So at the end of the day, a team like Carolina can hold on to an Eric Staal player at the trade deadline, push for the playoffs, and if they fail, they could wind up with the second-best option.
#Headlines – The Hurricanes haven't asked Eric Staal to waive his no-trade clause. https://t.co/yeTkIycTCt pic.twitter.com/Ef8GjQ2sE9
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) February 21, 2016
Is Tanking Happening?
The main reason for the new lottery system is for the league to do everything theycan to eliminate tanking. Are the bottom teams tanking? Are these organizations doing everything they can to get these franchises back into the playoffs? We may never know.
When I look at the teams at the bottom they did what they could to become a playoff team in the off-season. Last summer Edmonton signed Andrej Sekera in free agency and traded for Cam Talbot. Columbus traded for Brandon Saad. Buffalo traded for Evander Kane, Ryan O’Reilly and Robin Lehner. Despite these moves this trio of teams find themselves at the bottom of the league. Does anyone believe that these three teams weren’t trying to do everything they could to become a playoff team?
Granted I understand the league’s philosophy and decision making on this matter. But has the league gone to far with the new lottery rules? To be fair, Toronto has unloaded a number of players including Phil Kessel and Dion Phaneuf, and none of the players they have received in return has currently helped their main roster. I would argue those moves had a lot more to do with landing salary cap flexibility and team chemistry, then tanking for a top pick in the 2016 draft.
The league has entered a new era when it comes to the draft. The bottom teams in the NHL are hoping for mercy of the NHL lottery and tanking does not seem quite as attractive as it did in 2015, when finishing in 30th guaranteed that the Sabres would get one of Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel no matter how the lottery balls fell. This year, the 30th place team has a 56% of picking 4th overall. A full out tank job just does not make as much sense with the odds stacked in this way.
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