The NBA MVP race has seemed won for a while. The Golden State Warriors have been on a historic path, and continue to be so. Steph Curry has spearheaded their assault, dominating the game in ways we have never seen. He is unstoppable inside half court, and could set personal records if he maintains this pace. However, there is still competition for the award. With around 30 games to play, a lot can change between now and April. So who’s providing Curry’s competition?
6. Kawhi Leonard
20.2 ppg (51-48-88 percent splits), 6.7 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.8 spg, 0.9 bpg.
If the San Antonio Spurs entered a laboratory to craft the perfect player to inherit the place as franchise cornerstone as Tim Duncan nears retirement, Leonard is about as close as you’d get. The pre-eminent two way player in basketball this season, the forward has embraced his bigger role in the Spurs system this season, sharing the spotlight with new arrival LaMarcus Aldridge.
Leonard locks up the league’s best scorers on the defensive end and carries a heavy offensive burden, making his performances on both ends all the more impressive. He leads the league in three point percentage, is fifth in PER (25.7), sixth in true shooting percentage (.621) and is second in both total win shares (9.8) and win shares per 48 minutes (.285). The Spurs are +27.4 net rating with him on the floor, a signal of his two way dominance.
5. Draymond Green
14.5 ppg (49-42-68 percent splits), 9.5 rpg, 7.2 apg, 1.3 spg, 1.3 bpg.
What a story Green’s is. A player who was drafted in the second round, who never used to be guarded on the three point line, is now an NBA superstar who does it all. He leads the league in triple doubles with ten, whilst leading the Warriors in assists despite playing all of his minutes at either power forward or center. An incredible passer, he is even better defensively being able to guard any player on the floor at any time.
The Warriors are a +17.5 net rating with their forward on the floor, and he is ninth in win shares (fourteenth offensively, sixth defensively). He’s ninth in box plus minus (6.1) and fourth defensively. The Curry/Green pick and roll is the most unstoppable play in basketball. There might be no stopping the Warriors again this season, and Green has proved he is far more than a system player. His performance this season, particularly with Curry’s earlier shin injury, has proven that.
4. LeBron James
25.0 ppg (50-28-72 percent splits), 7.1 rpg, 6.5 apg, 1.4 spg, 0.7 bpg.
The King is in decline but boy is he still very good. Now in his thirteenth season, James is still playing exceptional basketball. There is debate around whether he is coasting through the season to preserve himself for the playoffs, but there is no denying that he’s not quite the athlete of season’s past. To his credit though, he is still dominating the Eastern Conference for the first place Cavaliers.
He’s fourth in PER (26.8), but as his legs have started to go, so has his mid-range and three point shooting, which is killing his efficiency. Cleveland is a +13 net rating with him on the floor, and he is fifth in total win shares (8.9). James is also third in box plus minus (8.4) and value over replacement player (VORP) with a 4.8. The King is far from dead.
3. Russell Westbrook
24.1 ppg (46-29-82 percent splits), 7.6 rpg, 10.0 apg, 2.4 spg, 0.2 bpg.
Westbrook is coming into his own. After having to carry the load in the absence of Kevin Durant last season, Oklahoma City’s star point guard has continued his brilliance and dominance into this season. He is seventh in scoring, second in assists, first in steals, and the leading rebounder among point guards; in a normal season, Westbrook would be the runaway MVP. But this is not a normal season. Westbrook also struggles beyond the three point line, but he’s so dominant elsewhere it doesn’t seem to matter.
Westbrook is second in PER (28.6), fourth in total win shares (9.7), second in box plus minus (10.2) and the Thunder are a net rating of +14 with him on the floor. He has gotten better as the season has progressed, and trails only Green with eight triple doubles this season. With Westbrook’s fierce playing style, don’t be surprised if he adds a second All-Star MVP to his resume on Sunday.
2. Kevin Durant
27.8 ppg (51-39-90 percent splits), 8.0 rpg, 4.5 apg, 1.0 spg, 1.2 bpg.
Durant’s injuries have been horrible. Even this season when he’s briefly sat out, it’s a reminder of one thing: he’s still the Thunder’s most important player. It might be Westbrook dominating the box score and dominating usage, but it’s Durant who carries them in key moments and hits big shots when they are needed. Expect this to increase as the season goes on. His efficiency is off the charts when he scores with such volume.
He’s slightly behind Westbrook, sitting third in PER (28.4). Durant sits behind only Curry in true shooting percentage (.636), and the Thunder are a net rating of +20 with Durant on the floor, which is significantly better than Westbrook. This can also be due to the fact the former Texas product is an incredibly improved defender. Despite sitting out games, Durant is also third in win shares (9.7) and third in win shares per 48 minutes (.280). If anyone can make a charge at Curry, it’s the last player to win the MVP besides him, and that’s Kevin Durant.
1. Steph Curry
29.8 ppg (51-45-91 percent splits), 5.3 rpg, 6.6 apg, 2.1 spg, 0.2 bpg.
The obvious leader of the MVP race, Curry has been nothing short of phenomenal. In a truly transcendent season, the Golden State franchise player is on one of the biggest bargain contracts of all time (4 years, $48 million) whilst playing some of the best basketball the NBA has seen since Michael Jordan dominated the 1990’s. Curry leads the league in scoring, and he might be the best shooter the league has ever seen.
The Warriors have the best record at this point in the season of any team in league history, and Curry is the main reason why. His outrageous PER leads the league (32.1), as well as leading the league in true shooting percentage (.676). Golden State posts a net rating of +25 with Curry on the floor, and he easily leads the league in win shares (11.9), win shares per 48 minutes (.338) and box plus minus (12.6).
At this stage, the MVP race is Curry’s to lose, and it would take a season ending injury to him or a historical 30 game spree for one of the other candidates for them to even stand a chance.
All statistics were acquired via Basketball Reference unless otherwise stated.
