Baseball season is almost upon us, and that means looking forward to spring training. As part of our latest series, LWOS is proud to bring you our NL East spring training preview.
Philadelphia Phillies
Strengths:
The Future. The Phillies won’t have much to smile about in 2016, but that’s no reason for the organization to be down on itself. After experiencing a regime change, the Phillies have begun to set themselves up to get back on the horse not too far down the road. Odubel Herrera and Maikel Franco will anchor their lineup for years to come, and we can hardly forget Aaron Nola, who has tremendous potential at the top of their rotation. With top prospect J.P. Crawford on the way, the Phillies have a pretty strong core of young talent to build around for years to come.
Weaknesses:
The Present. The Phillies are going to awful in 2016, pretty much just as awful as they were in 2015. They’re the favorites to be the basement dwellers come this October, and for good reason. Their lineup is still weighed down by over-the-hill talent. The Phillies made the right move cashing in on Ken Giles as soon as he peaked in value, but Philadelphia should have made a better effort trying to unload Ryan Howard and Carlos Ruiz last year. Both represent crippling contracts that the Phillies need to dump to have any hope of expediting their rebuilding process. These are the last remnants of their 2008 championship team, and while holding on to them would be a bit nostalgic for the fans, its time to cut the cord and move forward.
Atlanta Braves
Strengths:
Offseason Winners. Kudos to the Braves for recognizing that they are years away from competing. After dumping Andrelton Simmons and Shelby Miller this offseason, the Braves took in a tremendous haul of star prospects, including their new shortstop of the future, 2015 first overall pick Dansby Swanson.
The Braves also acquired 25-year-old outfielder Ender Inciarte. Inciarte has been a highly coveted asset this offseason, receiving trade interest from multiple clubs even after being traded to Atlanta. The Venezuelan native has been touted for his Gold Glove-caliber ability to play all three outfield positions, as well as his offensive following a somewhat breakout season with Arizona. Inciarte could change clubs at the 2016 trade deadline, leaving Atlanta with even more tools to speed up their rebuilding process and setting them up to compete when they open their new stadium in 2017.
Weaknesses:
Wasted Talent. Unfortunately for Atlanta, Freddie Freeman’s prime years are falling by the wayside. Freeman stepped in as the face of the Braves franchise once Chipper Jones hung up his spikes, but unlike Chipper, Freddie has yet to see an Atlanta Braves team that is ready to make noise in the National League. In addition to that, the large contracts of Nick Markakis and Michael Bourn have become dead weight. These two have entered the twilight periods of their careers and they will certainly not be around once the Braves’ rebuilding effort is complete.
Worst in the East. The Braves are going to have the worst starting rotation in the National League East this year. The Phillies have young talent, the Marlins have Jose Fernandez, and the Mets and Nationals are among the top in baseball. Julio Teheran was once an All Star with a bright future, but after an awful 2015, it’s hard to say if he’s ready to be an ace or if he will just descend into the abyss of baseball futility.
With that being said, there is nobody else in this rotation to get excited about. Maybe Matt Wisler has some upside, but he certainly hasn’t shown it yet, and you can count on no one getting excited by Manny Banuelos and his 89 mph fastball. Mike Foltynewicz has yet to live up to expectations and has been nothing but awful in his brief time with the Braves and the Astros. Lastly, I would be surprised if Bud Norris could post a sub-five ERA, and that’s being optimistic about his 2016.
Miami Marlins
Strengths:
The Big Three. Miami is always an interesting club. No matter how many big contracts they give out or blockbuster trades they make, the stars always seem to find their way out of Miami. Jeffrey Loria has been notorious for selling off his assets at the first sign of trouble, but it seems he’s finally committed to a core of young talent for the Marlins to build around. Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, and Giancarlo Stanton are collectively one of the brightest cores of talent to build around in baseball. Toss Jose Fernandez in the mix and the Marlins are undoubtably on the rise. However, they don’t quite have the right pieces around this core to compete yet. With that being said, I would not be surprised if the 1-2-3 of the Marlins lineup are given serious consideration as All Stars this July.
Weaknesses:
Pitchers Not Named Jose Fernadez. If it were posible, I’m sure the Fish would pitch Jose Fernadez every single game. Fortunately for the National League, that’s not possible and the Marlins rotation in 2016 is going to feature a cast without much proven success. Tom Koehler and David Phelps, the projected three and four starters, have yet to prove themselves more than average at the major league level. Jarred Cosart, the projected number five, has shown flashes of his notable potential at certain points, but completely regressed in 2015. Keep in mind that all three of these players have dealt with health issues over the past few seasons.
The team’s number two starter, Wei-Yin Chen, joined the Marlins this offseason after agreeing to a five year, $80 million dollar contract. That seems to be the going rate for starters these days, but I’m a big believer in ERA+ as a measure of value and it wasn’t until last year that Chen distanced himself from the competition. Granted, the Taiwanese native has had noticeable success over the last two seasons, but he is now leaving a competitive Orioles club for a mediocre Marlins team. It will certainly be much harder to produce with a less talented cast around him.
Washington Nationals
Strengths:
Offensive Powerhouse. Buoyed by the 2015 National League MVP, the Nats are poised to be an offensive juggernaut in 2016. They may have swung and missed on most of their offseason targets, but they still were able to acquire a strong leadoff man in Ben Revere and a professional hitter in Daniel Murphy. Revere will be the heir apparent to Denard Span, and should be more productive thanks to his ability to stay healthy alone. We all know what Daniel Murphy is capable of after his scorching hot postseason. If he is able to replicate his more powerful approach, he is simply going to rake in the nation’s capital.
Despite the fact that the offensive abilities of Jason Werth and Ryan Zimmerman are diminishing, they no longer need to be the offensive headliners of this ball club and should perform above expectations relative to their new roles. Anthony Rendon is poised to break out sooner or later, and when you couple that with the infinite ceiling of Bryce Harper, the Nationals will strike fear into the hearts of pitchers in 2016.
Triple Aces. If the Mets and Cubs didn’t exist, the Washington Nationals would have a strong case for the best starting rotation in the National League. Overshadowed by their division rivals, its easy to forget the National still have Max Scherzer, Steven Strasburg, and Gio Gonzalez. All three of those guys are ace-caliber pitchers, and could end up in the running for the Cy Young. With that being said, Joe Ross and Tanner Roark are valuable assets to have at the back end of any starting rotation. Unfortunately, the Mets and Cubs do exist, and the Nats are going to have to play third fiddle to those ball clubs when it comes to starting pitching. With a projected WAR of 16.2, the Nationals are going to have one of the most valuable rotations in 2016, which will perpetually keep them afloat in the race for the NL East.
Weaknesses:
The Weight of Expectations. Just as they were in 2015, the Nationals are one of the best teams on paper in baseball coming into 2016. It’s easy to sit here and pick them apart piece by piece, but as a whole they truly are World Series contenders. However, the weight of expectations can sometimes sink a ship, as it did for Washington in 2015. Taking hits all season long from a rejuvenated Mets team, the Nats sank slowly into the abyss thanks to a slew of injuries, bullpen ineffectiveness, and, frankly, a ton of mis-managed games by Matt Williams. Things culminated when Jonathan Papelbon choked out Bryce Harper. Let me ask, how is he still on the team after that happened?
The Mets may be the favorite this time around, but expectations are still high in our nation’s capital. The Nats are in win now mode, as evidenced by the contract north of $200 million given to Scherzer last winter, the steady decline of Ryan Zimmerman and Jason Werth, and the impending free agency of Bryce Harper only a few seasons away. The Nats better get things together now; they simply cannot afford anymore late season futility.
New York Mets:
Strengths:
Generation K 2.0. For the New York Mets, strength lies in starting pitching. What was once a collection of promises and prospects has become the premiere starting rotation in Major League baseball. Boasting three flamethrowers, a top-ten prospect, and one of the best rubber arms the game has ever seen, the Mets are poised to do some real damage on the mound for this season and many to come. This is all before considering another flamethrower will be returning this July in the form of Zack Wheeler.
It was remarkable to see the Los Angeles Dodgers have two pitchers in the top three of Cy Young voting this year, but 2016 has the potential to see Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Steven Matz all in the running this time around. In 2015, the Mets had a commanding lead in the percent of pitches thrown at 95 mph or above, and with a full year of Syndergaard and Matz, plus the return of Zack Wheeler, they have the opportunity to push that lead even further.
Major League Caliber Lineup. If you were to flashback to July of 2015, the Mets offense was not exactly a major source of pride for the ball club. With their two big guns, David Wright and Travis d’Arnaud, battling injuries, the Amazins’ could have been described as anemic at the plate. We’re talking about a lineup that at one point had a 3-4 combo with that both sported sub-.200 batting averages in Eric Campbell and John Mayberry. Luckily, the Mets acquired Yoenis Cespedes, David Wright and Travis d’Arnaud got healthy, and one pennant later the rest is history.
Thanks to a productive offseason, that very well may never be an issue in 2016. The additions of Asdrubal Cabrera and Neil Walker, in addition to the re-signing of Yoenis Cespedes, have cemented the fact that the Mets will not have to rely heavily on any “Quadruple A” players this year. Everyone in the Mets projected starting lineup deserves to be in the Major Leagues, not to mention the versatility adding two switch hitters gives Terry Collins. In addition, Wilmer Flores and Juan Lagares, who have now been relegated to the bench, could very well be starters on other teams. Toss in a veteran like Alejandro de Aza and you have a pretty formidable National League bench.
Weaknesses:
Defense, Defense, Defense. The good news is that we live in the age of defensive shifting, so the pitfalls of an inability to play defense can be averted in certain instances. The bad news is that the Mets may shape up to be even worse defensively than they were last year. We learned a lot of things from the Mets trip to the World Series in 2015. Unfortunately, most of these things were not positives. David Wright clearly cannot handle third base like he used to. The injury to his back has forced him to alter and slow down his throwing motion. This side arm change makes it much more difficult for the Mets captain to sling it across the diamond, giving a slight edge to speedier base runners. Saying Travis d’Arnaud’s pop time needs work is an understatement. It was hard to tell whether it was his foot work or his arm strength, but d’Arnaud could not throw anyone out during the World Series. Granted, the Mets pitching staff is not known for holding runners on and d’Arnaud’s ability to block the ball does boost his reputation as a defender, but if he can’t become quicker to second base, baserunners will have the green light all year.
The signing of Asdrubal Cabrera brings experience to this infield, however there isn’t much statistical evidence to say that he’s any better of a defender than Wilmer Flores. Flores held his own at the position in 2015, but the main reason Flores is out there is because of his bat, not his glove. What’s the point of shelling out $18.5 million if there is going to be no significant upgrade at shorstop? Neil Walker does represent a defensive upgrade over Daniel Murphy, but he’s not exactly a gold glover. The last important factor to consider is the outfield logjam. The resigning of Yoenis Cespedes means that Cuban native is going to be the team’s primary centerfielder. Yo is certainly capable of playing centerfield, and his cannon arm makes it tough for any one to run against him. But several miscues in the World Series made it evident that Cespedes should not and cannot be an everyday centerfielder. Unfortunately, the organization has committed to developing Michael Conforto in left, and Curtis Granderson does not have the legs or arm strength to move back to center.
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