The 2015-16 NHL season has not been kind to fans of the Vancouver Canucks. The franchise is in this odd, nebulous transitional stage where they’re simultaneously trying to forge a “winning environment” for it’s young players, while #TeamTank has been hoping for a chance at the number-one pick in the 2016 NHL draft. Fans have been torn on most nights between rooting for a win or rooting for a loss, while a fair number are hoping for personal success for the players combined with overall losses in the standings. When even the thought of rooting against your own team enters your head, you know the franchise is in a weird place.
Replacing the traditional arguments over which goalie should start, or why Vancouver’s stars aren’t appreciated on the other side of the Rockies (or even more disturbing theories spouted by crackpots about “NHL conspiracies” targeting the Canucks), the discussion in British Columbia has been dominated by one question this season: To tank, or not to tank?
On the surface, it seems like a pretty benign question, but the deeper one delves into both sides of it, the more complicated and perplexing it becomes.
#TeamTank
Canucks can really set the tone for the rest of the season by losing this game #teamtank
— Taj (@taj1944) February 5, 2016
The argument for the supporters of #TeamTank is pretty simple: The Canucks will need young superstar talent in the future, which they currently do not possess, while such talent is available in the 2016 draft and there is but one way to ensure the best possible odds of acquiring such talent – losing.
Certainly the prizes waiting for teams at the top of this year’s draft class are enticing. Auston Matthews has been flirting with the “generational” tag (which, let’s be honest, is getting tossed around too often lately) and would be an ideal heir for Henrik Sedin as the club’s number one center. On the wings are Finns Jesse Puljujarvi and Patrick Laine, both of whom have impressive size and skills, while Jakob Chychrun could be a cornerstone defenseman one day. The problem is, you’d need a top-five pick to nab one of them, something the Canucks can hardly be assured of, even if they do tank the rest of the year.
Complicating matters is the league’s refurbished draft lottery system, which now draws for the top three picks from all non-playoff teams, in addition to spreading out the percentages. There is a very real possibility that the Canucks could finish one point out of the playoffs and garner the first overall pick – however they could also finish, let’s say, 27th in the NHL but get pushed down to 7th in the draft.
So while this is entirely possible (and took several tries):
It would also take quite a lot of losing (there are currently eight teams they’d have to pass to hit the basement) to bring those odds up; 5% is a far cry from 20% among 14 teams vying for a shot at Matthews. And even if the Canucks did everything in their power to finish at the bottom of the standings, a 20% chance at the first overall pick leaves lots of room for error (even a 30th overall finish only guarantees the 4th overall pick). #TeamTank might find themselves bitterly disappointed come June.
Team ‘Winning Environment’
.@VanCanucks GM Jim Benning says Canucks are walking “a fine line” between winning and development #canuckson1040 https://t.co/HnaSB17BeQ
— TSN Radio Vancouver (@TSN1040) December 12, 2015
The Canucks brain trust, primarily general manager Jim Benning, has been preaching the “winning environment” since the offseason. The thinking is: Vancouver has a good stable of young players already built up, and to maximize their development they need to grow on a team that doesn’t suffer the continual heartbreak of losing game after game, week after week, month after month.
Once moribund, the Canucks prospect pool has actually become quite respectable over the last few years, ranked 14th this season by Hockey’s Future, a ranking that doesn’t include sophomore center Bo Horvat.
Beyond Horvat, forwards Jake Virtanen and Jared McCann and defenseman Ben Hutton have already become NHL (semi-)regulars, while forwards Brock Boeser and Hunter Shinkaruk and goalie Thatcher Demko all look to make an impact soon.
All of those players project to be at least top-six, top-four, starting goaltender-level talents, while a few other prospects (such as Cole Cassels up front and Jordan Subban on the blueline) may also sneak their way in to those roles one day. You could even add 23-year-olds Emerson Etem and Sven Baertschi to the list to get a real idea about how the core might shape up.
As the theory goes, the best way to help all these players reach their potential is for them to grow in a positive (i.e. winning) environment. This method includes playoff experience (something that proved incredibly valuable for Horvat last season, as he scored four points in his first six post-season games), and therein lies the crux of the debate:
Should the Canucks risk potentially hurting the development of the group they already have in place by losing this season in exchange for adding a future All-Star talent?
Or,
Should the Canucks risk missing out on an All-Star talent in exchange for strengthening the group they have by giving them the experience of an attempted playoff run?
It’s a perplexing conundrum to say the least.
One the one hand, there’s no guarantee that landing a top pick in the draft will equate to future success on the ice – for every Chicago Blackhawks who have built a dynasty through this method, there is an Edmonton Oilers who have languished despite an influx of top picks. In fact, there’s not even a guarantee that if the team does tank that they’ll even get a shot at Matthews at all.
On the other, there’s no guarantee the young core the Canucks currently have will be able to get over the hump in the future and they absolutely need to add that young franchise player. While the stable of youth is solid, as of yet there are no perennial All-Stars in that group, no player that the team can hang it’s hat on if they want to succeed long-term (and while some would argue for Horvat at this point, and he very well may fit the mold of a top two-way center like Jonathan Toews one day, there is no Patrick Kane type anywhere in sight).
So, fans have been left teetering between #TeamTank and Team “Winning Environment” for most of the season. As it stands now, #TeamTank is winning the battle, and it certainly looks like the club’s management is leaning that way as well. They may outwardly be saying they won’t consider tanking, but the jettisoning of veterans Chris Higgins and Brandon Prust in recent weeks indicates the team is content to sink or swim with the kids, meaning the Canucks seem unlikely to add at the deadline, looking instead to perhaps offload a few more veterans such as winger Radim Vrbata or defenseman Dan Hamhuis (a stance which could be encouraged by their placement in the standings towards the end of February). Given that the Sedins aren’t going anywhere and the club would be foolish to blow up it’s goaltending, that’s about as close to a tank job as the Canucks are going to get.
The team has entered yet another crucial month in terms of the long-term success of the franchise, and Vancouver’s fans are nowhere close to coming to a consensus on how they want it to play out.
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