Full disclosure: I am not an analytics guy, not even close. And while I see the obvious value of qualified hockey people augmenting decades of hard-earned expertise with scientifically-deduced analysis of the trends they are able to accurately track, I will always enjoy the actual sport of hockey more than the science of it.
That said, it doesn’t take a scientist to tell you that in his sixth season in the NHL, Toronto Maple Leafs forward Nazem Kadri is coming into his own. Like the whole stats movement, I am once again late to the party when it comes to the Kadri love. While the raw talent has always been undeniable, what the former 7th overall draftee has done with that talent has often left me decidedly underwhelmed. The questionable work ethic and commitment to putting it all together with some modicum of consistency, coupled with off-ice antics which ultimately led to Leafs president Brendan Shanahan levying a multi-game suspension haven’t supported the player’s contentions that he feels he’d be an elite-level asset if given the opportunity.
I have always wondered if #43 would ever button it down and become all he can be, and despite a rather modest start to the season, Kadri has been catching fire, while playing the right way throughout the process. When he’s not contributing to his points totals (11 goals, 17 assists), he is usually winning draws as indicated by a 50.96 FOW% on the year, drawing penalties (2.7 per game) or throwing a big hit not unlike the one he leveled Brad Marchand with in the second period of last night’s game in Boston.
The facts and figures are indeed impressive enough, but what compelled me to even glance at those numbers was a recent opportunity to watch Kadri perform at ice level in Florida. His ability to exploit holes in coverage, his puck patience and his confidence, as well as his willingness to engage the opposition all over the ice, sold me on Kadri as a player I would make every effort to re-sign at, or before season’s end.
Observing the player during media exchanges, it’s clear that he’s got his head on right. Gone is that hint of arrogance and overconfidence. He’s buying in, and he’s focused on being that top-line piece he believes himself to be. Any concerns of Kadri embarrassing himself in Evander Kane-esque fashion with off-ice extra curriculars have been laid to rest as he presses the issue of his value to the organization going forward.
In coach Mike Babcock’s words, Kadri has an opportunity to “put the screws to us” based on his play this season, and while he hasn’t torn it up in the offensive stats categories, what he has shown is his value in so many areas of the game that he’d be tough to replace, because he’s now doing so many little detail-type things so well in every zone. He’s never going to be 6’2’’ and 220 pounds, but he plays a brave game, much larger than his modest stature might have us believe.
One stat category that I found very encouraging was the faceoffs won category. This particular category is subdivided into offensive zone, neutral zone, and defensive zone draws, as well as draws won while ahead on the scoreboard and draws won while behind. Kadri’s offensive zone wins boast a sparkling 57% success rate. He loves to play in the “fun zone” as Babcock calls it, and really bears down in this area.
What’s really fascinating, however, is his success rate in the dot while behind the eight-ball. When trailing, Kadri has 25 more faceoff wins than losses, and that’s a pretty telling stat, in my admittedly unsophisticated, stats-ignorant opinion. Still, the numbers don’t lie. While his defensive zone success rate in the faceoff circle dips, what’s clear is his will to win and to be a difference-maker on a rather average hockey team, when it really matters. He’s become a puck-hungry offensive catalyst who infuriates opponents into taking retaliatory penalties, with a level of compete and courage that makes him a real threat in all three zones, and given that he is the first tried and true homegrown Leaf to climb the ranks and earn his stripes, at just 25, Kadri is definitely the kind of player you want to hold on to as the team rebuilds.
The only question that needs answering is the one about price. Is Kadri a $6-million–a-year player? I don’t think so, but something north of $4.75 and south of $5.5 million per season over six or seven years doesn’t sound out of line to me. One would assume that a longer term might afford the Leafs opportunity to reduce the annual cap hit a touch, and conversely, a shorter five-year term might come with a higher dollar figure. We can likely count on Kadri to be a 50-55 point a year contributor over the next four or five years, and if he can be locked in at something under $5.5 million a season until his early thirties, he is worth the investment.
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